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Bush on Schedule for 40% and Lower By Year End

September 8th, 2003

A new Time/CNN poll put Bush’s popularity at 52%, but their polls usually come out on the high end favoring Bush. A CBS poll just out has him treading water at 46%. Another CNN poll shows that 41% of Americans will “definitely vote against him,” with only 29% definitely voting for him. It’s kind of hard to find these poll numbers on CNN’s own site, but they’re there, buried somewhat. Gallup had him at 51% a few weeks ago.

Take his Gallup numbers since March, plug them into an Excel chart, and extrapolate a linear trendline (best outcome for Bush). It shows Bush dropping to as low as 35% by the end of the year. Hey, you might interject, those numbers might go up. Well, not really. So far his numbers have only gone up twice: after 9/11 and after the Iraq invasion. That’s it. Aside from those two blips, his popularity has followed a downward trend at a surprisingly steady rate. Look at the chart for yourself.

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