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July 21st, 2007


Hard to get used to this. When I bought Apple stock, it just happened to be at a peak. For a whole six months, the stock did not go above that peak without soon falling back down; in fact, if often fell below, sometimes well below. But then, in April, things changed after the 2Q earnings report, and then buzz about the iPhone release started working up. After the iPhone was released, a lot of good news on sales, profit margins, and so forth shot the price up significantly on some days. So what’s hard to get used to is, after six months of disappointment (to the point where I couldn’t read the stock news very easily), I find myself waking up to news that the stock I bought is up another thousand dollars overnight.

Now my only regret is that I did not put fully half of my savings into the stock, like I wanted to at first. When I floated this idea to family and friends, I was strongly warned not to go there. They even warned me against putting in as much as I did. And as far as general advice goes, it was excellent advice. The thing is, I have never invested money in a specific stock before; I have never had enough confidence to. But with Apple, it was something very different, and much stronger. They say that when you invest, it should be in a company that you have strong confidence in, but also one whose product you very much approve of. Well, if you read this blog, you’ll know that all of that applies here, in spades. And had I figured this out four years ago, I could have gotten in on the ground floor–Apple stock was at $7 a share in April 2003, and that was before a stock split in 2005. Had you invested $12,000 in the stock in April 2003, you’d have a cool half million by now. Yikes! If anybody out there invents a time machine, let me know!

It appears that the stock may yet have far to go. There are naysayers, and they may be right. Or not. One analyst put a sell on Apple in May, when the stock was at $111; the stock is now at $143.75. Today, Piper Jaffray put a new estimate on the stock’s ceiling, to $205, predicting a “tidal wave” for Apple by 2009. Of course, a serious defect could be found in the iPhone tomorrow, sending the stock plummeting, or a thousand other things could happen. I’m simply betting the other way. So far, so good, but that’s what the guy said as he passed the 30th floor on his way down to the pavement. Who knows?

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  1. July 21st, 2007 at 14:06 | #1

    I had a stock broker talk me out of investing in AAPL back in 1995. I did OK with some other stocks but I am still kicking myself for not going with my very strong gut feeling.

  2. Luis
    July 21st, 2007 at 16:09 | #2

    Ouch! Of course, from ’95, it would have taken almost a decade to show much profit, but still…

  3. July 25th, 2007 at 08:14 | #3

    It will eventually hit a point when enough people think the stock won’t go any higher and then people who went long will begin to cash out, at that point the institutional investors will step in and short the stock pushing it even further down. Timing when to get out is the tricky part. You know what they say. Stocks take the stairs up but the elevator down.

  4. Tom
    July 26th, 2007 at 12:05 | #4

    I’m in the same boat–not sure what to do with it. I might sell half of what I have but it’s hard to say.

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