He’s Back
The pundits in the press, as I listen to them, are straining as hard as they can to claim that this race is not over yet, even going so far as to suggest that the superdelegates might fall in behind Hillary, a suggestion so ludicrous that it strains credulity to the breaking point. Clinton supporters are going even further, claiming that Hillary’s “win” in Indiana (she was supposed to win by about 5%, she may win by as little as a single percent) is devastating for Obama because a month or two ago, Obama expected to win that state. (Only one poll, a small unknown pollster, had Obama ever being ahead in Indiana.) Clinton herself is on stage now, carrying the Clinton message about how Obama said he was going to win Indiana, and how the polls said he was going to win Indiana (despite all but one very old, outlier poll saying that Hillary was going to win), and that because she has “won” Indiana (by less than she was supposed to, a very thin margin–they haven’t even called the state yet, for criminy’s sake), that this is a “tie-breaker” and therefore, she wins the race! Obama might as well just give up! I know she’s got to put a good face on things, but, I mean, really. Sheesh.
There’s no getting away from one thing: Hillary needed some kind of big win tonight. And while the results are not yet all in, it looks pretty clear: Obama won, and Hillary either lost big or didn’t get the minimal win necessary to make her look credible. Indiana, while not an Obama win, may be a Hillary loss; the networks are still not calling it yet despite 87% of the votes counted with Hillary ahead by 4%, because the last district not reporting is a big one, is adjacent to Obama’s Chicago, has a strong African-American population, and has seen tremendously high turnout. It is even possible, however remote, that Obama could still win Indiana–which would be a huge embarrassment for Hillary. While Clinton will probably win the state, it could be very close; in terms of delegates, it will be just as close, maybe almost an even split. In North Carolina, where Hillary needed to at least get close, she is being taken down by double-digit numbers, perhaps as much as 14%. Obama is outperforming the polls tonight.
Perhaps people will shake off this media-induced fuzz where people forgot that Ohio and Pennsylvania were always Hillary strongholds, and that Obama lost very few delegates in those states despite losing the popular vote. Maybe people will begin to recognize that Obama is still dominating the superdelegate gains, that he is now less than 20 superdelegates behind Hillary (some say as few as 14), and after Obama’s performance tonight, that gap is bound to close even faster.
Naturally, Hillary will not quit, neither will the Republicans (who have been helping Hillary all they possibly can because they see her as the easy one to beat) nor the media (who want the race and the mudslinging to continue as long as possible); in coming weeks, you will start to hear a lot more about Florida and Michigan.
But Obama now has his mojo back; expect that to be a big factor from now.
She’ll quit. You watch. She’s broke and won IN by 2%? That’s a fork in her back, because she’s done.
7% of her vote came from Rush Limbaugh cross over voters.
In both Indiana and NC, Obama won 90% plus of the black vote but only 35-40% of the white vote. If a good number of those white Clinton supporters decide to vote for McCain in the fall (who, after all, is the best possible cross-over candidate that the Republicans could have nominated), than Obama will win the nomination and lose the race. Certainly, the “Rev Wright”, Bill Ayers and “Bitter” issues have made Obama seem to many people as being clueless, elitist and showing poor judgment and/or character.
Obama is basically Gary Hart with a tan. He has won to an extent by picking up blacks along with the upper-caste latte liberal crowd, but his general election appeal to independents, moderates and lower-income whites is very much unproven. Many Republicans feel that he’s a weaker opponent than Hilary at this point.
I disagree, and for a simple reason- one of the things that’s really skewing the white vote to look like Obama can’t capture it is the HUGE support that Hillary has among white women.
Once she’s out of the race, a ton of those white women are going to come and vote for Obama. They’re still Democrats; they’re just taking the opportunity to vote for a serious contender for the Presidency that is female for the first time.
In a way, it’s too bad that the Dems wind up with the two biggest “different” candidates, a woman and a black guy, up in the same year. If only one of them had been a serious contender, they would have already wrapped it up. (My guy, John Edwards, was dead meat almost no matter what- even though I personally think he would have been stronger in the general than Clinton or Obama.)
Instead, in a way they have a plethora of riches to choose from this year. That’s why it’s such a shame that Hillary’s people went so negative on Obama, with not-very-veiled hints about the notion that a black man can’t win.
By doing so, they put the idea out there and made it vaguely socially acceptable to bluntly say- which Fox News and other conservative echo chambers will do endlessly between now and November.
In any case, Obama’s going to win, period. Hillary is fighting a hugely uphill fight to convince the superdelegates, because those folks are influenced by two main things- wanting to get reelected (and Obama has more popular Democratic support than Hillary) and wanting money. Obama has a lot more of both, plus he has what is probably the most valuable fundraising list/database of all time.
The only question now is how she’ll exit the race and how quickly the Democrats can heal the wounds and get to blasting McCain.
Regarding your characterization of the media, I spent much of the night flipping between the three major news networks, and I have to disagree with you. I saw very little of what you saw. For the most part, the discussion was of the post-mortem variety such as how Obama matches up with McCain and would Obama take Clinton on as vice-president, etc. The only real Clinton acolyte that I saw saying she may still win was Lanny Davis on CNN. There were a few minor others, but no way did they dominate the coverage. And if they’re going to put gung-ho Obama supporters and gung-ho McCain supporters on, then they’re going to have Clinton supporters on as well. But from what I saw, they were only relegated a minority voice.
Tim Russert thinks that it’s over:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lklfIPBK4Zg
Geoff,
Can you put race aside for a minute and focus on the issues:-
1.The economy
2. The rising cost of oil
3. Loss of homes
4. The war in Iraq
Now – listening to McCain – do you seriously think that he has a better grasp of those 4 issues than does Obama. Do you hear anything other than a Bush 111 version of policies coming from McCain – and you believe that the American people actually want that and will vote McCain in?
The las vegas betting parlors think there is a 10% chance of Hillary winning. Why? Perhaps there is a 1 in 10 chance of Obama having a medical emergency of some sort, or making a terrible gaffe, or there being a terrible “revelation” (e.g. bimbo erruption). I think Hillary wants the party united at the convention, so at some point, she’ll stop hoping for that 10% chance of winning.
Well, looking at the same news sources I looked at 24 hours ago, the narrative has turned around 100%. A day ago it was about Hillary winning Indiana, with big photos of her smiling in victory, and nothing about it being a devastating blow to her campaign–at most, but not always, there was a side story noting how Obama also won in NC.
Not too long after that, the narrative changed, saying Obama won NC, and Hillary “squeaked by” in Indiana–but still little news about how her candidacy was dealt a mortal blow.
This morning (Japan time) I look again, and everyone is essentially saying that Hillary’s chances look dim.
About fracking time. The writing was on the wall quite some time ago. I guess there are just too many people openly recognizing the plainly obvious for the media to keep up the pretense anymore.
All I can say is, your experience and mine were nothing alike. The news has been going on all day about how difficult it will be for Clinton to win, and everything I saw last night on TV was pundit after pundit saying how terrible the night was for Clinton.
I did see CBS spend some time saying that Clinton “got the win she needed”. But that was before it was clear she was only going to win in a squeaker.