Bush is now at a record low of 41%, according to a CBS News poll. This follows a recent trend–other polls put him at 46%, 44%, 46%, 44%, 42%, 42% and 41%, in time order starting from the first week of the month. But two other polls just out (Washington Post/ABC and CNN/Gallup/USA Today) put him at 47%, so it is hard to say.

And so Bush goes on TV tonight to try to sell us on how rosy things are. This is a campaign speech coming up, folks, centering on what will be a key issue in the elections. Watch for Bush to try to make it sound like (a) he’s pulling our forces out of Iraq as we hand over power, and (b) U.N. forces will be coming in to share the burden. The irony is that this is Kerry’s strategy, and of course Bush will do no such thing. He’ll talk about the handover of power (he might even have decided to whom the power will be given) and make it sound like our troops will be leaving, but he’s planned for them to stay there for a decade at least, and with things going so badly–and with troops being taken from other posts around the world and sent to Iraq–don’t count on July to be a time when we reduce the number of troops by any real number.

And as far as U.N. involvement goes, don’t count on that too much, either. Even “coalition” countries are pulling out troops or threatening to do so; and with Bush unwilling to be humble, to allow any substantial foreign influence or command, or to give up any of the control over oil or juicy contracts for rebuilding, don’t buy into the fiction that U.N. troops will be pouring in anytime soon.

Expect smoke-and-mirrors, folks. Expect nice-sounding words. But count your change, and believe nothing until it actually materializes. Remember that Africa is still waiting for Bush’s AIDS assistance, and your kids are still waiting for funding for the No Child Left Behind scam.