Japan Election Results (so far)
In this election there are 121 seats open, and Koizumi projected that the right-wing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) would win 51 of them. Though many at first thought 51 seats was too modest, the polls up to election day suggested that the LDP might not reach that goal. The winners so far:
Democratic Party (Minshuto) 42 Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 37 Clean Governance Party (Komeito) 7 Independent / Other 3 Communist Party (Kyosanto) 2 Social Democratic Party (Shakai Minshuto) 1
That leaves 29 seats left to go, and the changes are coming in fairly quickly.
The projection is that the LDP will not reach 51 seats, and if that prediction is fulfilled, then it may be the end of the Koizumi cabinet. The LDP will still be in power, but there will be a power struggle within the party and perhaps an new PM.
The two contentious issues in this election are the pension reform (raising social security taxes and lowering the pensions paid), and the Japan Self-Defense Forces (SDF) being sent to Iraq.
It is hard to say what the reaction may be–will both of those issues be turned on their head? Will one be sacrificed for the other? Or will the LDP continue to hang doggedly on to both?
One can only hope that this will convince Japan to pull out of Iraq, and perhaps turn away from the right-wing drive to re-militarize the country and allow its troops to fight in conflicts overseas.
Koizumi’s goal was 51 seats, but I do not think he will resign if he can keep the majority in the Upper House with the help of the small Komeito. And even if he resigns, he will be replaced by even more conservative forces within the LDP. Therefore, I do not except Japan will pull out of Iraq in the near future. No big changes, I guess. We will have to wait for the Lower House elections in 2007 (still 3 years to go!) or hope that the LDP will be totally worn out before that date.