Not according to Microsoft. They are standing by their most recent claim that Vista will be introduced in January 2007, a release already pushed back several times. But analysts at Gartner are now claiming that there is an 80% chance that Microsoft won’t even hit that target, and that “broad availability” of Vista could be delayed yet again, perhaps as late as June 2007. They base this prediction on the timing of Microsoft’s announced release date for the second Beta release of Vista, scheduled for this summer; they predict it will take at least 9-12 months to go from Beta 2 to full release. Microsoft counters that they’ll be ready in five months after Beta 2, as they were with XP–except that Vista is far more complex an upgrade than XP was.

One has to take the strong assurances from Microsoft that they are “on track” with a grain of salt; after all, just last November, when the Beta 2 release was pushed back from December to January or February (it’s still not out), Microsoft reps were positive that “the company remains on track for shipping Windows Vista in the second half of 2006.” Now they’re saying, “we remain on track to deliver the final product to volume license customers in November 2006 and to other businesses and consumers in January 2007.” Pretty soon, they might be saying, “we are dedicated to staying on track for a 2Q 2007 release.”

Also, Gartner has a point about the delayed release of the Beta 2 version of Vista, and Vista’s complexity. If Vista does come out on (current) schedule in January, it may be a relatively unfinished release that could need many upgrades before it reaches a stable level of usability.

Of course, it may be that this won’t matter to a lot of people. After all, Vista is reported to be a power and memory hog, and many people won’t be able to use Vista without buying a new computer. More will probably take a wait-and-see attitude before switching from XP. If I recall correctly, XP took a while to get a lot of people switched over.

If one thing is for certain, it is the fact that further delays in Vista will deal even more PR blows against Microsoft–especially if Apple’s OS X Leopard, 10.5, is released well before Vista makes it to the consumer.

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In other Mac/Windows news, more and more articles on the web are pointing out that the recent “Macs besieged by viruses” stories are not quite so accurate. Snippets include:

Con Zymaris has been working with Unix systems for nearly three decades and for the past 15 years has been running a consultancy on open source software implementation. Zymaris says that, while it is true that a Mac can get infected with a virus, it is not easy and it is not likely to cause much damage. What’s more, Mac users don’t need to install firewalls and anti-virus software.

And:

OS X is not going to be vulnerability-free, but I do expect it to show significantly fewer vulnerabilities than Windows has. That does not mean OS X users can ignore security – at the very least, enable the built-in personal firewall – but it does mean you should not stay with Windows because you think it will be safer.

So there.

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And finally, Apple has come out with its biggest new ad offensive since the “Switcher” ads a few years ago. The six new commercials (viewable here) feature two guys–a cool dude saying “I’m a Mac,” and a slightly nerdy business guy saying, “I’m a PC.” They then act out various conversations which cutely play out several of the advantages of the Mac, in a simple, friendly-joshing yet nevertheless competitive manner. At the least, they’re fun to watch. I love the one title’s “Network” with the Japanese gal playing the digital camera. In case you don’t understand Japanese–and it’s hard to catch exactly as there’s overtalking and it sounds a bit cut up–she asks the cool Mac dude about the PC guy, “Doesn’t that guy seem a bit nerdy?”