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The Edwards Split

February 1st, 2008


While on the Republican side, McCain clearly won the Giuliani vote. Edwards’ bowing out of the race brought a far less clear result. While it may seem that Clinton got only one point and Obama three out of the 4 points Edwards’ lost campaign gave up (the polling sample included three days, only one of which where Edwards had announced the end of his campaign), the truth is better seen in light of recent trends.

As I posted yesterday, Clinton has been losing one point per day while Obama gains the same. Presuming the same has held true, then Hillary lost one point again–but gained two points from Edwards. Obama probably gained one point on his own, but Edwards gave him two points as well. So it would seem that while Obama continues to gain on Hillary, they are splitting the Edwards supporters between them. Yesterday, Obama was 6 points behind Hillary, today he is four points behind.

What will happen in two days, when all polling results in this daily poll reflect Edwards’ withdrawal? If the current trend continues, it could be tied in two days–Clinton and Obama both at 45%. The remaining 10% undecideds would make all the difference… unless Obama’s upwards trend continues.

However, from the polls I have been seeing, Obama faces an obstacle: most of the big Super-Tuesday states are Hillary-heavy. If Obama’s support is in post-Super-Tuesday arenas, that support could suffer if Hillary takes most of the victories next week.

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  1. Tim Kane
    February 2nd, 2008 at 04:53 | #1

    My thinking is, if Obama and Clinton are in a statistical tie, then the race will probably break for Clinton because of inertia.

    This is disconcerting.

    The Republicans appear to be selecting their most electable candidate. The Democrats appear to be selecting the least electable candidate.

    An inquiry as to why this is happening would be most interesting.

  2. Stuart
    February 3rd, 2008 at 09:39 | #2

    I have noticed many more pro-Obama ads here in California than pro-Clinton. Along with Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama, there may be enough of an effect to swing the California vote to him.

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