Obama Sweeps
Wow–not only did Obama win all the races this weekend, but he pretty much crushed Hillary in most of them. Especially Maine, where Hillary was given a fair chance of taking the state. The closest state this weekend was Maine, where Obama won over Clinton by 18% of the vote. That’s not just a win, it’s a blowout–and it was the closest race over the weekend. Here are the five races this weekend and their results:
| State | Obama | Ciinton | + % Win |
| Louisiana | 57% | 36% | +21% |
| Nebraska | 68% | 32% | +36% |
| Washington | 68% | 31% | +37% |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | 90% | 8% | +82% |
| Maine | 59% | 41% | +18% |
Most people are ignoring the Virgin Islands vote, and probably with just cause–there are only six delegates, and though Obama gets all six, each one only counts as half a vote, so Obama only gets three from them. But that’s OK–Obama won a lot more delegates elsewhere. He also got enough big wins to make even an 82% margin not all that necessary to tout. I mean, look at those results–he won Louisiana and Maine by margins of about 20%, and Washington and Nebraska by margins close to 40%. That’s pretty impressive.
In fact, although Hillary has won most of the big states so far, Obama has won almost every state he’s gotten by 10%+ margins. And while Hillary had a big win in Arkansas, that 43% margin was the only one she got over 25%; Obama, meanwhile, has won ten states by a 25%+ margin:
Clinton (10)
Arkansas +43
Oklahoma +24
New York +17
Massachusetts +15
Tennessee +13
California +10
New Jersey +10
Arizona +9
Nevada +6
New Hampshire +3
Obama (19)
Idaho +62
Alaska +50
Kansas +48
Washington +37
Georgia +36
Nebraska +36
Colorado +35
Minnesota +35
Illinois+32
South Carolina +32
North Dakota +24
Louisiana +21
Maine +18
Utah +18
Alabama +14
Delaware +10
Iowa +9
Connecticut +4
Missouri +1
So far, a strong new start for Obama, and a terrible one for Hillary. She needs some kind of win this month, and though she’s got the expectations game on her side, it’ll be tough slogging. She reportedly has started a do-or-die fight for Maryland, something to break Obama’s February sweeps. But bad news keeps dogging her campaign, making her look more like a loser–lending her campaign $5 million, losing the fundraising war to Obama by a 2-to-1 margin, having her staffers work without pay, and now she’s fired her campaign manager.
It’ll be interesting to see how this affects the polls, especially in Ohio and Texas.
Pretty amazing. I don’t see her winning anything in February. Suddenly that makes her ‘big state’ strategy look alot like Rudy’s “big state” strategy. She will have to defy the laws of momentum. If she waits until March to win a state, the momentum will pull her under.
Maryland seems like a good place for her to stop and take a stand. A fairly compact state, very urban, they know her there. She can pore a lot of money into those areas. If women sympathize with her plight, as they did in New Hampshire, she’s got a shot.
I think the race is good for Democrats as it brings in people in states that normally would slumber through the process.
These days Obama has to be the front runner. This is truly amazing. An African American with only three years experience in the Senate. Wow. (I think there’s been only a few non WASP to hold the Presidency: Van Buren, the Roosevelt’s, Eisenhower and Kennedy: Three of Dutch extract, one German and one Irish extract.) He’s truly a gifted politician. If his salesmanship holds up, the United States could look like a very different country a year from now.
nice table !
To get an estimate of who will win, one can go to intrade.com, to see what odds are giving to betters. They analyze polls of upcoming contests to get odds. They have obama as having a 70% chance of winning democratic nomination and a 47% chance of winning general election in Nov 08. These #’s change by the day. Hillary is doing well in the polls in big states such as Calif, so that could help her.
Tim: I think Clinton is making a break for Maryland, that’s what I heard. Be interesting to see what happens there.
Seemed to me like she was just trying to get as many delegates as possible in proportionally-allocated Virginia…ah well, she failed at whichever she tried.