What the Numbers Say
August 7th, 2008
There are two good sites out there closely tracking the numbers in the election, Five-Thirty-Eight, and the Princeton Election Consortium. Both look at state (not national, because elections are decided state by state) polling and create statistical models showing where the campaigns currently stand.
Five-Thirty-Eight currently gives Obama a 62.7% chance of winning. While the Princeton Election Consortium doesn’t make predictions, they state that if an election were held today, Obama would have a 99% chance of winning.
The two sites are currently arguing over whose models are better. If you though Mac Geeks were bad, try Math Geeks.
one things for sure… this election isn’t going to be split down the middle (knocks on wood)…
also you can study kanji on the iphone:) +1点
Mages: Study kanji on the iPhone? Did I type that somewhere? Or did you see my review of that kanji program and connect it to me here?
The vegas betting parlors (e.g. http://www.intrade.com) are putting obama at about 61%. I don’t know where the betters get their info. Perhaps a variety of places.