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McCain Decides He Has Already Lost in Michigan

October 3rd, 2008

With the economy tanking (with McCain’s fingerprints all over it) and Sarah Palin’s shine beginning to dull, Barack Obama is not only ahead in pretty much all the national polls, but has started recording significant leads in most of the battleground states as well, including Florida–a must-win for McCain. CNN’s latest polls give Obama a 4-point lead in Florida and New Hampshire, a 6-point lead in Wisconsin, an 8-point lead in Ohio (which has started voting as Republicans again try to squelch the vote), and a 9-point lead in Virginia and New Jersey. But Obama now has double-digit leads in Minnesota (up by 11), Michigan (13), Pennsylvania (15), and Iowa (up by 16 points). In the remaining battleground states (Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, Colorado), McCain holds only a 1- to 3-point lead. That’s pretty damn weak. Other polls reflect these trends.

Other polls show similar gains by Obama, and unless something really big happens, hope for John McCain seems dim at this point.

That would explain McCain’s desperation move to pull his forces out of Michigan, a state where Republicans thought they had a chance after Obama “didn’t count the votes” in his fight against Hillary. Instead, McCain will now focus on the other battleground states and rely on picking off one of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota–states which, as noted above, are now favoring Obama by 15, 6, and 11 points respectively. Getting one of those will not be easy, and that’s assuming that McCain will somehow win back most if not all of the other battleground states.

There’s a month left to go. McCain is still doing far better than his actual performance merits. Anything could happen.

But things are looking good.

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