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Electoral Math

October 22nd, 2008

Not only is it looking pretty bad for McCain, but we should be able to know the end results pretty early this election day. In order for McCain to win the election, he is going to have to pull off some pretty amazing upsets. Here is a best-case-scenario squeaker win for McCain:


Compare this with the actual present-day electoral map according to an aggregate of state polls:


In short, McCain has to win not only all the states where he currently holds a lead (Obama seems to have a long-shot chance at Georgia), but he also has to win all four states currently trending slightly for Obama–Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina–and he has to win back Florida, tilting slightly more for Obama–and he has to win a big state currently solid for Obama, and it looks like they are trying for Pennsylvania. Which probably explains their strong emphasis on race and distrust–they hold that image of Hillary beating Obama there and that race being decided on those very issues. The problem, of course, is that Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania is not only significant, it is still trending sharply for Obama:


Maybe I’m crazy, but I just don’t see McCain pulling off Pennsylvania.

In short, on election day, watch for how McCain does in the Keystone State. If he loses that race, then he has virtually zero hope of winning the election.

In the meantime, go to Pollster and check out the situations in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, and Nevada. In only one of those states–Ohio–does the trend favor McCain. In Florida, the candidates are both holding steady. In all the other states, Obama is the one moving upward.

Going by the trendlines, one has to conclude that with the time remaining, McCain would have to pull off a literal miracle to win this election. No way he’s going to win it on his own–there would have to be some incredibly significant, game-changing event in the next two weeks to move the public’s opinions that fast, that sharply.

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  1. Tim Kane
    October 22nd, 2008 at 18:37 | #1

    Gee, can’t we just have an honest to goodness, old fashioned landslide for Obama?

    I guess that will have to wait until 2012.

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