So, why did Palin resign? There are several different theories:

1. She was telling the truth. Just from her record alone, we can pretty easily dismiss this one outright. Palin is, for the most part, congenitally incapable of telling the truth where her record and policies are concerned.

But truthfully: the media hounding her and political enemies calling for investigations? Please. Even if we accept Palin’s worldview and ignore the fact that she has personally invited every single jab in the media and every single investigation into her wrongdoings, either by making a huge deal of herself or by literally welcoming scrutiny, then what this says about her is that she can’t take the heat. If she is so weak a politician that she can’t stand up to the media, how can we believe that she’ll be capable of standing up to a serious opponent? How would she deal with North Korea? Resign from office because they’re being so mean?

2. She wants freedom to run for president in 2012. If this is true, then Palin is even more of a schizophrenic moron than I thought she was. Nothing says “presidential material” more than quitting in mid-term because you just can’t take all that negativity from the media and the ethics investigators.

She may just as well tattooed the word “QUITTER” on her forehead, because that’s what every opponent–especially her fellow Republicans–will label her as if she tries to run against anybody from now on.

But she might actually believe that this is the right move: that by doing this, she will be a victim (which played very well for her in the Letterman affair), a martyr who sacrificed herself for the people, the party, and her cause. She may actually believe that her speech defused the whole “quitter” stigma just because she tried to call “quitting” “winning.”

If this scenario is true, then she’s in for a bit of a disappointment.

3. Something Big is coming. There is a huge scandal that we haven’t heard about yet, and Palin resigned so as to avoid the worst of its consequences.

This seems to be the best theory because nothing else makes sense; the other two theories are so lacking in credibility that it is commonly assumed that this must be the real reason. We just haven’t seen the other shoe drop yet.

This makes sense on many fronts. First of all, Palin not only lies, steals, and breaks the law, but she has done it so transparently that it defies belief. As we just found out in Vanity Fair:

After one meeting between the governor and legislators in 2007, Lyda Green, then the president of the state senate, returned to her office to catch up on some paperwork. She caught Palin on the news. “And she comes on TV and says, ‘I want to once again confirm that neither I nor my staff ever holds closed-door meetings.’ Well, we had just been in a closed-door meeting for an hour and a half!”

That Palin does this suggests that she may simply have no “ethical filter,” that she simply cannot tell right from wrong, or truth from lie–or else is so blindingly arrogant that she just believes she can get away with anything without even trying to hide it. Either way, it makes it much easier to find her guilty of something. And that may be what happened: that she did something so illegal or unethical that it’s coming to bite her in the ass.

Second, the way she resigned seems tailor-made for pre-emption. She set the stage by making multiple claims that her political enemies were out to get her with false accusations, wasting all that taxpayer money. She’s a victim, she’s trying to tell us–so that when charges come out, she can say, “See! Just what I was talking about, what a coincidence!” and pretend like it’s just another false charge that her enemies have trumped up.

Third, if she quits before charges are made, she removes the scrutiny of being an office-holder. If a huge scandal erupts while you’re governor, then being in office is a liability. If you’re an ex-governor, then it’s old news. She can claim that all of that is behind her, hope that people forget it, and then run for office after it’s all gone away. And let’s face it, you can get away with murder while in office–all you have to do is resign and suddenly investigations collapse. [Edit: in retrospect, this claim is a bit much–criminal investigations can certainly follow you out of office. But it is also true that prosecutors will often stop following a case after the office-holder has left office, that being commonly considered ‘punishment enough.’ A sitting governor who took a bribe is far more of a threat to society than an ex-governor who can no longer cause any harm.]

Sure, quitting and then having a damaging scandal revealed aren’t exactly career-builders, but it may be that she simply has no choice–that staying on as governor would be far worse. If there’s a big scandal coming, then this could be Palin’s best chance to salvage her career.

Of course, there are two more theories:

4. Palin is a total wimp. This is an alternate reading of theory #1, above. Maybe she just can’t take it any more. In which case she doesn’t belong in politics. Or:

5. Palin is batshit insane. This could simply be the act of a completely stupid and crazy person doing things for reasons that only make sense to her. We certainly cannot rule out that possibility. Crazy people don’t need good reasons.

Any other theories?

Late thought: I forgot to mention something that had been rolling through my mind: the timing. Palin announced this on “Take Out the Trash Day,” Friday before a holiday weekend. If this was a push where she really wanted to ride the wave of publicity, she would not have made the statement on a day perfect for burying news stories, a day famous for killing the momentum of news stories.

Another reason not to buy into the idea that she is “gearing up” and “reloading both chambers” for a new political offensive–unless, of course we return to the “crazy” or “stupid” scenarios, in which Palin is showing extremely bad judgment.

Later Update: The Brad Blog is following the stories that the “iceberg scandal” is the reason why Palin resigned, and that it has to do with upcoming federal indictments for embezzlement. Short version: Palin is in trouble for her relationship with the building contractor, Spenard Building Supplies, which has been under investigation by federal authorities. The Wasilla Sports Center and the Palins’ home are both part of the focus. These reports have been circulating for a while, but nothing solid has come out about it yet. Keep in mind, this could just be baseless speculation–people searching for a ‘scandal,’ latching on to an investigation that may or may not be going anywhere, that may or may not even involve Palin herself.

If it is what pushed Palin out, then I have another prediction: seconds after the official announcement is made, the Right Wing will explode in conspiracy theories about how Obama directed the FBI to sabotage the career of his most likely rival in 2012.

I could be wrong; any takers on that bet?

For the time being, the right-wing blogs are speculating on much friendlier theories, like ‘she wants to spend more time with her family,’ or ‘there is a grave illness, and won’t those nasty liberals feel like crap when it comes out.’ Other are still on the ‘brilliant political play’ theory that she’s getting ready for 2012.