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Like I Said…

February 8th, 2012

Romney is still the front-runner, but I’m still not calling it over. I noted in a previous post that the race is so volatile that I am not willing to conclude that Romney will absolutely be the winner. Tonight just cements that impression: Rick Santorum became the new Anyone But Romney, and swept three states–beating Romney in two of them by almost 30 points. True, the delegates were all unbound, and Missouri in particular is meaningless in terms of delegates, but tonight’s results do kind of emphasize what I was talking about: the race is still open.

What’s interesting here is that, before tonight, Romney had only won 3 of 5 states (one of them being heavily Mormon), and from tonight, he has won only 3 of 8–with Santorum, who eked out a win in Iowa after a recount, having won four states–one more than Romney.

There may also have been a recent shift, considering that up until just a few days ago, Romney led Santorum by 10 points in both Colorado and Minnesota. Whether or not Santorum will jump in Michigan or Arizona enough to make a difference is going to be a big question; we’ll see what the polls say in the next three weeks. A few other states will weigh in–Maine is underway now, and Washington votes in early March–but that’s all until Super Tuesday, on March 6.

Like I said, Romney is still the likely candidate, but I ain’t paying off no wagers till the fat lady sings, and she ain’t sung yet.

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  1. Troy
    February 10th, 2012 at 09:54 | #1

    It’s heartening seeing the party of idiots being hoisted on their twin petards of chauvinism and intolerance.

    Ron Paul supporters were previously complaining how Romney’s money was winning him elections.

    These libertards didn’t understand that their hero was just demonstrating his failure to perform in the market of the pure land of the libertarian utopia of where the big money talks and everyone else walks.

    40%+ of this country are utter morons.

    Maybe more if I start canvassing my own side of the divide.

  2. stevetv
    February 11th, 2012 at 15:56 | #2

    Sorry, but nothing that’s happened in the interim changes anything in the long-term. When I said Romney had it “in the bag”, I didn’t mean he was going to win every race from here on. I meant his nomination was going to be an assured end-result, and it still is. As you said, Sanitarium’s just another “Anyone But Romney” candidate – the last one – and this will just be a temporary speed-bump like all the ABR’s before him.

    But I hope this will go on as long as possible. Anything that hurts the GOP is good for American.

  3. Luis
    February 13th, 2012 at 00:53 | #3


    I still hold that Romney has not yet clinched it. Not that he shouldn’t like his chances–the CPAC straw poll and the Maine results might give him a bit of a boost now–but Santorum is trending up while Romney is trending down. In fact, they are now more or less dead even in an aggregate of polls, with some, like PPP, giving Santorum a sizable lead. That’s nationwide.

    What happens if Santorum is at his apex when Super Tuesday hits?

    Like I said, not that it isn’t Romney’s race to lose–but once more, I hold that Romney is far from invincible at this point.

    Frankly, I hope Romney wins–I think Santorum, who could truly mobilize the right-wing base instead of keeping them home like Romney would, and with his superior campaigning skills versus Romney’s perpetual foot-in-mouth disease, I think Santorum would have a better chance against Obama.

  4. stevetv
    February 16th, 2012 at 10:01 | #4

    I gotta concede that recent developments have made me rethink things. I was convinced that the Republican Establishment would allow Santorum (who, besides being unlikeable, lost his last senate race by 18%) to come within spitting distance of the nomination. That it’s happened means either a). they’ve given up on trying to win the 2012 race and don’t care anymore; or b). the establishment has lost control of the voters in their own party a la Goldwater or McGovern.

    I don’t know if Santorum would have a better chance than Romney against Obama or not. (I’m not sure what I know anymore, thanks to this insane primary season.) Either way, I doubt he has much of a chance. People have said Obama needs the economy to recover in order to secure re-election. I don’t think too many people believed it would actually happen at this rate. Now that it has, at least up to now, I don’t think we’ve yet come to terms with what it means for the state of the race. Santorum has no economic credentials to speak of. This, along with his poisonous social platform, will get him taken behind the woodshed come November. I’d predict a double-digit defeat were he to be the nominee.

  5. stevetv
    February 16th, 2012 at 10:02 | #5

    “Republican Establishment wouldn’t allow Santorum to come within spitting distance of the nomination”, I meant to say.

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