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2000 vs. 2004 Redux

October 31st, 2004

Here’s another comparison between the polls today and the polls in 2000 just three days before the election:

Today the TIPP tracking poll was a tie; at this time before the 2000 election, it was +5 Bush.

Today the Zogby tracking poll was a tie; at this time before the 2000 election, it was +3 Bush.

Today, the WP/ABC tracking poll (LV) was +3 Bush; at this time before the 2000 election, it was also +3 Bush…where it stayed, with a brief detour to +4, until its final poll, thereby missing the actual popular vote margin by 3.5 percentage points.

New data from TIPP has Bush moving one point ahead, but another new poll from Zogby has Kerry moving one ahead, so the new data is a wash.

If this polling comparison suggested that Bush would be getting more numbers, I’d be worried; but on top of giving Kerry the advantage, we also have the high Democratic turnout, which usually favors the Democrats, then there’s the fact that early voters have been strongly Democratic, the fact that most newly registered voters are Democrats, the fact that the minority vote, strongly for Kerry, will likely be stronger than predicted, and that the youth vote, also for Kerry, is relatively uncounted. On top of that, the bin Laden “gift” for Bush seems to have deflated, and the polls remain steady.

Things are looking good.

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  1. make a difference
    November 1st, 2004 at 02:27 | #1
    Reply | Quote

    MAKE THE DIFFERENCE!!

    From The Los Angeles Times:

    “Nationwide, at least two polls in the last week showed that newly registered voters favored Democratic presidential candidate John F. Kerry by double-digit margins. The Massachusetts senator holds an even greater lead, the polls found, among voters 29 and younger… The conclusion is that the new voters and younger voters favor Kerry by a large margin, but historically they don’t actually bother to vote. If they do this time, it could make a big difference.”

    Your vote is essential!

    GET TO THE POLLS – VOTE ON TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 2ND!!

    AND VOTE FOR KERRY!!!!
    Why? Check this out: http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i=20041108&s=facts

    Send the above message to your friends, including those at other schools. Urge them to

    VOTE FOR KERRY!!

    YOU CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN THIS ELECTION!

    http://www.moveon.org/front/ has put together the numbers and information you need if someone tries to stop you from exercising your right to vote.

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