It’s got as much of a 2008 subtext as anything.

To me, this looks as much like a “win” for McCain over Frist as anything else. McCain winds up being more of a leader, because he gets something done, retains a “moderate” label, and defies the White House.

Frist “loses” because he doesn’t get everything he wants and doesn’t keep all the Senate Republicans roped in.

That said, for Frist, it was essentially a “win/no-lose” situation. He wins with the ultra-righties, who probably don’t trust McCain anyway. Even with this “loss”, he would still “win” by scoring those suckup points. So Frist really didn’t have to spend the much-vaunted “political capital” but he still makes it look like he’s the true-blue Republican.

The real question is whether or not this will be spun and believed to have happened because those moderates truly have a core set of values that include a right to filibuster or not.

If the general consensus is that the moderate Republicans really would’ve ultimately come down on the right to filibuster, then you have to figure that Bush won’t appoint some ultra-righty to the Supreme Court.

If, on the other hand, the general consensus is that the moderate R’s would’ve voted the party line, then the Democrats are hosed.

Paul
Seattle

Well again I say that Reid is practicing Jujitsu (spell?) tactics which is the only thing available to the Democrats because they are a significantly weeker party.

I believe that had it gone to the nuclear option the Democrats might have prevailed significantly, thanks to Frank Capra and Jimmy Stewart in Mr. Smith goes to Washington – the power of the fillibuster is seen as one that empowers the individual in the most idealistic of ways. Taking away a fillibuster would have felt like, to the public, a crass power grab aimed at the heart of the people by the theocratic right.

This deal, at worst delays this battle. But it buys time. And in that time the ground can shift, and indeed this deal also does cause the ground to shift alittle. Reid, in this deal, has highlighted a division that exist in the Republican party. Its always a good thing if you can divide your opponent. Even if its by the thinest of wedges.

This deal becomes a catalist for the emergence of a moderate wing in the republican party. Given the vitrolic and hegemonic nature of the far right, they will probably want to move to annihalate (sp?) the moderate wing, and sooner rather. But with Supreme Court nominations coming up, I’ve heard towards the end of june, they may not have enough time to do so, so in the interum, they will need to tolerate them. This means that the moderates have time to cultivate themeselves. They are but a fledgling and probably not likely to make it through the first hard winter – but in the mean time, If they are pushed to hard, they can get help from Reid.

It is in the interest of all of us that the moderates succeed. If the Republic survives the Neocon assault on America – there will be a need for a republican party of moderate temprament so that the game of two party politics can continue.

Now had Nuclear War broken out, and had Frist won – it would be, for the United States, I am affraid, something akin to the Enabling acts in 1933 Germany. What you would have, at a strategic level is Theocratic Rule of – well basically everything – though some tactical Rule by Economic Elites – and Bush vacilating between the two. If Frist won, the Senate becomes a patsy to the President. The independence of the Senate would be gone. With the Congress gone, and the Supreme Court soon to be gone and with overwhelming evidence of control of media and therefor no spotlight on electioneering and vote tampering – I am that the Coup would be complete.

I think the moderates in the Republican party see this, at least to some extent. So they moved to both protect the institutional power of the Senate and the Republic. But they are much the weaker faction in the Republican party. The Neocon’s have the elite of the elite when it comes to money and the they have vitriolic brown shirt style activism masses when it comes to religion. When Religion and Economics become aligned its a powerful force. The moderates are what’s left of Rockefeller Republicans – and unless they get access to money they stand no chance and then they still have to get access to mass base. Lot of ifs there.

Now look how things can play out. The moderates have time to become better organized and to work out their tactics and strategies. More than likely this means they may very well cooperate with Reid. Keep in mind, the Dems may hold only 45% of the public, but the Neocons never more than 35% (and usually more like 25% and in a healthy well informed environment should be less than 20%) which means the moderate Republicans are in a position to salvage the republic – if they are so organized and if they are cognazant to the threats to both them and the Republic.

To get access to the Masses – the manic Neocon Republicans must be called out and exposed. This might have happened if the Nuclear option had gone off on Tuesday. By delaying this battle, Reid got more time to strengthen his ground – keep in mind that the Dems position is soooo weak that any amount of time purchased is valuable. Second he became midwife to a burgeoning new moderate movement in the Republican part that if it blossoms will make him stronger and by buying time he bought time for this new movement. And with it he bought future possible allies for everything from supreme court nominations to financial prudence.

It seems likely that Darth Bush, like Palaptine, out of his alliance with the Religio-Neocon-Right, will quickly move to nominate an extemist judge in order to destroy the independence of the Senate. He will probably move to act as quickly and as soon as possible = before the cement has had time to dry on the new agreement. Every ounce of time is valuable at this point. But things likely won’t come to a head until a Supreme Court nomination comes up.

That’s the worse case measurement in my mind. The deal might harden and dry and an alliance of responsible governance might emerge that stands fast. The deal might actaully work. There is a lot of subtext that suggest possible future cooperation between the moderates and the dems on a whole range of issues. The deal is vague – and the vagueness might be a positive vagueness and not a negative vagueness.

I think Reid could have worked out a verbal agreement to protect the moderates because the Republic needs a Republican party, just not one that is right wing neocon extremist bet on single party hegemony. Both Dems and Moderates want a propetual game. Extremist want to end the game. Right now their are only extremist on the right. If their were “end game” extremist on both sides we wouldn’t have a prayer. There is a slight probability here that the agreement means the eventual effective minoritization of the “end game” extremist. Think about what I wrote about game theory in other posts. Right now the moderates have a lot more incommon with the Dems then they have with the Neocons in their own party because they are truly commited to the perpetuation of our constitutionally based republic.

Finally, Credit has to be given to Reid in that it is only fitting and proper that a battle to destroy the independence of the Senate should only occur under circumstance that are epic. Yes, if he had fought a battle over the independence of the Senate – he might have won, but if he lost we would all look back and say, did we have to destroy the independence of the Senate, and therefor the Republic over the nomination of Owens? As distasteful as she was, it probably makes sense to fight strategic and epic battles over strategic goals – of which a Supreme Court Justice represents.

Along the way Reid may have picked up some strategic allies. The more time they have to trace cooperative acts between them, the stronger the alliance will get. To understand these dynamics I recommend everyone read Robert Axelrod’s “The Evolution of Cooperation.”

There is a very thin thread here to be hopefull about. I have growing respect for Senator Reid. The more time goes by the better the chances for our Republic. This is the winter of our discontent. I keep thinking of the analogies to Britain at the begining of WWII. They played for time. Little victories like the scuttling of the Graf Spree “in a cold winter managled to warm the cockles of the British heart”. We may loose. We may lose everything. But Reid has proved skillful to the task and my respect for him has grown to enormous proportions. Like that for Winston himself. Each, when democracy had its back against the wall, worked, with blood sweat and tears, to save democracy. What a blessing he has turned out to be.

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