The good news is, fewer American and other coalition soldiers have been dying in Iraq. In February, only 20 American soldiers and three other coalition troops were killed in Iraq. That represents an average of 0.79 deaths per day, a distinct improvement over prior months–the next lowest casualty rate was in September, when the rate was 1.1 per day, and the highest was last November, when 110 people dies and the rate was 3.67.

As much as this news is greatly welcome, it is not, unfortunately, a measure of success in the country. That’s because the bad news is, as has become obvious in the past several hours, that the guerillas in Iraq have refocused their attention on Iraqi police and civilian targets, with devastating results. At the beginning of February, two suicide bombers killed at least 109 people at Kurdish Party Offices in Northern Iraq. 100 more were killed in blasts over two days on February 10-11. Attacks on police stations and other offices in Fallujah left 27 Iraqis dead on February 15th. 10 Iraqis were killed on an attack on a police station on the 23rd. Furthermore, the attacks are less and less the purported works of foreign terrorists, but instead tend to be natives, willing to blow themselves up for whatever cause they may have.

And now today, coordinated attacks in Baghdad and Karbala have killed at least 141 civilians as they celebrated Ashoura, a holy Shiite celebration banned under Saddam Hussein. More than 400 were injured in the attacks.

The fallout from the attacks is yet to be known, but it will probably not be good. Many are already blaming the Americans and Israelis, and this attack on a Shiite holy pilgrimage is bound to make things much more difficult in the attempted transfer of power back to Iraqis. Shiites comprise 60% of the population and are demanding that the new constitution be at least partly based upon Islamic law; they want direct elections that would give them de facto control over Iraq, while the Bush administration tries to institute caucuses or other measures that would prevent such a thing. The American welcome is wearing thin in Iraq, and the commission set up to write the constitution is more and more being dismissed as a puppet institution controlled by the U.S.

The conclusion on all of this is that things are not going well in Iraq. And a serious question is, as the election draws closer and if things continue to go wrong, will Bush pull out our troops without leaving anyone except the Iraqis in charge? The insurgency has not faded, it has simply redirected its attacks. The Shiites are still opposed to any form of government which does not give them a strong hand in running things the way they want, and now they are bound to play the victim card.

When July comes around and things have not been settled, will we–or, that is, Bush–bug out for the election’s sake?