Just a few days ago I blogged on how Bush’s numbers were falling, especially in terms of his specific performance on key issue such as national defense and the war on terror. At that time, his Gallup numbers on the issues were falling, but his overalls were not much different than has been usual.

Bush’s popularity numbers over the past few months

Gallup did a new poll released today, and Bush’s numbers have dropped to a new low: 46% approval, 51% disapproval; that’s lower than he’s ever been at Gallup.

The poll focused mostly the public’s reaction to the Abu Ghraib scandal, and found that 54% said it bothered them a great amount, 25% a fair amount; 73% said no circumstances justified the abuse; 56% said they felt the soldiers were “acting on their own,” while 34% said they were following orders; and that while 83% and 85% felt that the soldiers and their superior officers (respectively) were a “great deal” or “fair amount” to blame, 48% said the same about Rumsfeld, and 42% about Bush. Rumsfeld’s popularity dropped to 46% from a high of 71% last April when the war was starting. About half felt that it was a major setback for both the war in Iraq and against terror.

And for the first time, a majority of Americans–54% vs. 44%–believe that it was not worth going to war in Iraq. By the exact same numbers, a majority feel it was not a mistake sending troops (go figure that one out when considering the prior number), but that stat also is on the drop.

On the less reassuring side of things, 79% saw this as a breach of “Accepted U.S. Military Policy,” meaning that most will see this as less a structural problem and more of a “bad apple” problem, which is highly unlikely. And 56% feel that the soldiers were “acting on their own,” which also seems incredibly unlikely–how could such widespread abuse occur without their supervisors knowing it? Along the same track, 64% see the abuse as “isolated incidents.”

And while those who saw this as a major setback to the Iraq and terrorism efforts were high (48% and 49%), the number of those who saw this as a minor setback or no setback at all numbered a combined 50% in both areas.

All of this seems to say that while everyone is shocked and demoralized by the issue, it is seen as a fluke more than a pattern. This story is not going away anytime soon, however, and as more information comes out–especially about the contractors, and how much abuse was going on.

Then there is the fact that Bush, Cheney and others in the administration seem to be spending half their time mentioning to everyone in earshot about what a swell guy and terrific Defense secretary Rumsfeld is. One thing I will say for hardcore Republicans, they are very often loyal to their own to a fault. And this may very well be to a fault indeed if the images get worse and public opinion darkens.

Meanwhile, the military is wasting no time getting the court-martials started, with the first “streamlined” judgment coming up next week in Baghdad. One wonders if this is SOP, or if we’re beginning to see some show trials in a likely useless attempt to placate the Arab world.

The trials will not be televised (no surprise there), but reporters will be allowed, and the soldiers and their families have made it pretty clear that they are not willing to take the fall for this.