John Zogby, president and CEO of the Zogby International polling organization, is taking a “bungee jump” and predicting that Kerry will win the election this year. He calls the election “Kerry’s to lose.” The reasons?

First, Bush’s numbers are not high enough for an incumbent to get re-elected.

His second reason I don’t follow as well: there are “very few undecided voters for this early in a campaign,” and “historically, the majority of undecideds break to the challenger against an incumbent.” That would seem to go against Kerry, but Zogby sees it as saying that “voters have probably made a judgment about the better-known incumbent and are looking for an alternative.”

Third, the economy and the war in Iraq are the top issues for 50% of people polled, and good economic news may not help Bush so much, as there is a lag time between recovery and a change in people’s attitudes; even though the economy was in full recovery in 1992, Bush Sr. lost on the classic “it’s the economy, stupid” tack.

And finally, Zogby points out that Kerry is a strong closer, and does his best in the final weeks of a campaign.

Let’s hope the man knows what he’s talking about.