Montana, Missouri and Arkansas are going for Bush, again as expected. People seem to be fretting that Bush already has 193 electoral votes vs. Kerry’s 112. I don’t see why–they’re all expected turnouts for Bush, while Kerry got a state that was on the line. They only reason bush has so many EVs so far is because his heavy-duty states have been called so far. When the west coast reports in, Kerry will jump from 112 to at least 167, and possibly up to 185, with a probably Michigan win bringing him up to 202.

Keep your eyes on the ball, folks. Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania are the key states, with Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire being important as well.

So far, the states have been falling so predictably that they all agree with my own projection which has Kerry winning 308-230. In other words, while Bush’s numbers are high, it is because most of his safe states have been called, while many of Kerry’s have not yet been called–and the battleground states are still completely up in the air. Still quite a bit of time left to go.

Update: Excellent point made by Joe Lockhart on CNN just now: the numbers in Florida and Ohio look unnaturally leaning to Bush because of incredibly high turnout in Democratic precincts, some voter lines so long that polls will stay open until midnight–meaning those votes are not being added to the tallies yet, and they represent a very large chunk of the Democratic vote. CNN is also reporting that Ohio is going more for Kerry than it went for Gore in 2000, and that seniors in Florida have shifted from strong for Bush to leaning for Kerry.