Will Florida go for Bush? CNN is reporting that “many” of the precincts from heavily Democratic counties in Florida have been counted, but they don’t say how many, or how many votes in total remain to be added to the tally. Bush retains a 52% to 47% lead with 95% of the precincts counted (remember, those are precincts, not total voters; the remaining 5% of precincts can contain far more than 5% of the population). Still, it is not looking all that good, and at best will be a squeaker. Kerry people are saying that they may indeed have not won Florida. One thing for sure: the networks are not going to be calling Florida until they’re damned sure this time.

Meanwhile, Kerry just inched ahead in New Hampshire, and now Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Michigan have Kerry out ahead by a small amount, while Ohio still gives Bush a lead (though Kerry-heavy precincts are mostly unreported). If Kerry can get Ohio, however, and if the Wisconsin-Minnesota-Michigan-Iowa block, that could give it to them.

But if Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico go for Bush, then that could set up Wisconsin to be the most important state–because if it goes to Bush, then an electoral tie could result, and if the Congress does indeed stay in Republican hands, then it would select Bush and Cheney.

The national popular vote is closing in, and will close in Kerry’s favor more as more west-coast votes come in.