Interlude
As we rest this week in the holiday season, we have a chance to ask what will inevitably happen in the NSA spying case. Colin Powell went on the air and was as damning as he’ll ever be, considering the apologist he is for the administration. He said that it wasn’t necessary to avoid the courts, but Bush didn’t do anything wrong. That’s about as much as you’ll get out of him, but that is significant because of the tint. The shade of something off, which a few Republicans are already allowing.
One thing is pretty clear: Bush did violate the law. Can’t really get around that. 4th Amendment and all that.
The question is, will Bush get nailed for it? Such a thing is always a political question, and as such, is unclear. During the holiday respite, less is being reported and done concerning all this. That will change after the New Year’s break ends. But how will it progress? Where will things fall?
So far, Bush has been able to avoid general outrage by drowning the public in excuses, hoping everyone will find one or two that they’ll accept. Republicans control the Senate, which means no impeachment; the Republicans control the Congress, which means no serious investigations. Naturally, the first thing that Bush will try is to ride this one out, and hope the media will avoid the temptation of a hot but damaging story, and that the public will not care enough. The second will be to fight it out, allowing the Congress to drag their heels and eventually begin “independent” investigations which won’t get very far. Maybe accept censure, and act like that’s enough. Or perhaps call for an investigation themselves, like in the Valerie Plame case, hoping that like Plame, it will drag out for so long that by the time it ends, it’ll be 2008 already. That may be the best ultimate strategy: look like you’re doing something, then string it out beyond the 2006 elections so the impact will be minimal. They should be able to obfuscate enough by denying access to most information on the grounds of national security.
That’s the Bush-gets-away-with-it scenario, best as I can figure it. The other scenario, where Bush gets clobbered, involves events perhaps less likely, but nevertheless possible. Especially concerning details about the spying. If it included calls between Americans and other Americans, or especially if there was any political use of the eavesdropping, like monitoring communications by politicians, that could be enough to tip the scales and make even conservative Americans face the obvious. The media has pretty much been allowing the fiction of some semblance of legality to pervade, but if legal experts start pointing to statutes and precedents and say that Bush broke the law, that could create big problems for Bush and the GOP. If the Democrats are smart enough and crafty enough to keep the investigation in the limelight, this could become a major issue for the 2006 elections. If it’s seen as bad by enough people, then Congressional Republicans–already in trouble with unpopularity and scandals even aside from this one–could find themselves looking really bad if they refuse to investigate, or otherwise cover for the president. That could force enough Republicans to agree to Democratic demands for openness and strong measures. And if the Democrats win back the Senate next year, that could open the doors for impeachment, especially if the investigation has progressed far enough to reveal some ugly stuff.
So, we have the range of Bush getting away scot-free, or Bush being impeached–and all possibilities in between. Depending on how the media, the experts, and the people react; how the right wing will balance this in an election year; and how much more information will come out, and how damaging it will be.
It seems to me that the way to play the Republicans, politically, is like a matador and a bull. (You know, the way they play the public). Basically its taking an aggressor and sending him into embarrasing over reach. A skilled politician knows how to work this sort of thing. I think Harry Reid has this down okay.
The Republican’s like to think that they score points as the law and order bunch in a world of disorder. But now they have over reached – they are just the order without law and that should draw the steely knives out and into the back of the bull by a skilled matador.
I don’t trust Kerry to do the right or smart thing, Dean either, nor Polosi, Boxer maybe, Schumer maybe, Reid, definitely, Murtha probably.
The republican monopoly on power has driven us into the a new age: the 4th reich. Everybody should be calling the Bush administration by that now. Or at least Quasi-4th Reich. It should be easy to hammer this home by a skilled politician.
From a political perspective, the best politics of a minority power has to be jujitzu – make them see red and let them charge ahead. Let the republican’s charge so far into unconstitutional territory then shine the light on them in the 11th hour.
The big obsticle is I believe they have a lock on the elections necessary to keep them in power. They would not be this reckless if they didn’t. Some how they think that they can act so radical and not be voted out of power. Bush isn’t worried about impeachment. Democrats should be pushing for paper ballots, hand counted, amendment to the constitution. Its what they do in Canada. If they really felt they had to be accountable to the voters there is no way republicans would act the way they do. There is something rotten in Denmark, er Ohio, er Florida, when it comes to elections in the United States.
We are living in the 4th Reich. Thank you Leo Strauss.
I think that politically, he’ll almost certainly get away with it. I cannot believe how few people give a toot about this issue. When I say “politically”, I mean from a “will Congress do anything about it” framework.
The problem is that Congress, namely the Republicans who’re running the joint, have a pretty easy out. They can cover up the investigation quite a bit with “we can’t talk about that because it’s classified”. When it comes to getting details about things, they’ll excuse not getting into it because the technology is new, or whatever.
The real question is whether or not the media will keep the issue alive long enough to drag down and cripple the Bush Administration. Things tend to fall by the wayside- when was the last time you heard or saw Karl Rove’s legal problems being covered? Several weeks ago, each news story had something about how he (and others in the Administration) were basically useless because they were all worried about that problem. Now? It appears to be no problem at all.
About the best news for progressives is that Bush just keeps screwing up. People are seeing more and more things and they’re all typical Bush Administration screwups. Hopefully the Dems will pull their heads out of their butts long enough to come together and take it to the Republicans in the midterm elections.
The best of all scenarios would be winning the House and then impeaching Bush. I don’t think the Dems can win the Senate, but the House is possible. I would like nothing better than a vicious trial being put on by the House Dems, with the Senate Republicans having to put up with it and give the appearance of a fair trial.
I’m to that point. I didn’t think that Bush should have been impeached over most of his screwups; but the spying-without-a-warrant is way over the top.
Paul
Seattle, WA
Bush screw ups are almost a predictable as day following night.
I advocated that Kerry should have labeled Bush “slip-shod” after Bush labeled him a “flip flopper”.
That name would have stuck because Bush continues to screw up. Bush has lived up to the name slip shod and will continue to do so. Whether its weapons of mass destruction, or Katrina, or Spy-gate, or Abu-Graib-gate, or whatever, he has the reverse midas touch. Everything he touches turns to dust and that’s why he’s so dangerous sitting in the oval office. We’d be better off with Baby Huey or Hermon Munster as president.
Bush: President Slip-shod.