The Next Step
So far, the Democrats are moving in the right direction, despite early signs of weakness and a media blitz that pushed Bush’s spin on the Iraq Withdrawal issue. Still, Reid and Pelosi made an excellent statement on the Bush veto (only his second veto in more than six years, by the way). The veto could not, of course be overriddeen. But so far, the Democratic leaders are going along the lines I guessed at, but the real test comes with what they do next.
So far, there are good signs: polls show that about 60% of the American people favor the Democratic plan, with only about 40% disapproving–which means the moderates and independents seem on the Democratic side. A similar number of people felt that the war was unwinnable Democratic Senator Jim Webb had a good take on it: “The question becomes, defeat by whom? Surrender to whom? We won this war four years ago. The question is when we end the occupation.”
It also seems like the Republican lines may be weakening–few will want to vote against withdrawal when it comes down to it, because the last thing they want is for the 2008 elections to be a second referendum on Iraq. They know they would take severe losses if that were the case. So now they are making noises about, at the very least, being the “bridge” between the Democrats and the president, helping effect a compromise. In the end game, however, any plan with a withdrawal date set into it–especially if it overrides a Bush veto–would be a huge victory for the Democratic Party.
However, there are signs that the Democrats might blink on a withdrawal date, instead settling for “benchmarks.” I think that would be a mistake, because (a) it would show weakness on the issue of actually ending the war, and (b) would have very little actual impact on reality if a withdrawal date were not coupled with the benchmarks.
I prefer Murtha’s plan of giving a two-month spending bill and then tying the withdrawal date to either the next Iraq funding bill, or tying it to Pentagon funding bill in May.
The people have made it clear that they want out of Iraq, and going wishy-washy with “benchmarks” seems like the wrong thing to do, even if it is the easy and perhaps the (immediately) politically expedient thing to do.
I prefer them sending him the same thing, over and over and over again. He’ll get the message. If they send him three bills to fund the troops, he’ll be lying if he denies that such funding was sent.
I also prefer a stronger worded bill. I also want it itemized. I think people don’t realize what all the money is going to. I 100,000 man mercenary army. How much per man in that mercenary army? Aren’t we going the way of the Roman empire here.
I think I read somewhere that the White House finally is planning on putting Iraq spending into the main Defense appropriations bill. Of course, now that the Democratic Party is in charge in Congress, that plan might not get very far.
There’s a number of issues- one, dealing with the FAA that’s very near and dear to my heart- bubbling up through Congress right now. It will be interesting to see if Bush decides to go to a totally confrontational route. I suspect he will and we’ll see at least a partial government shutdown in October.
The Dems need to start laying in the PR for that right now, like Clinton did with Newt several years ago.
Tim: I don’t know about sending the same bill. I mean, from a legislative standpoint I guess it would be OK, but from a PR/political standpoint, I don’t think it would play well; the Dems need to be able to say that they have been flexible in some way while still remaining adamant on their core point.
I would rather they send the bill back at least without some of the extra spending measures (the ones Bush criticized as ‘pork’), and perhaps added ‘benchmarks’ in addition to the withdraw deadline–in other words, enough so that they can say that they moved to compromise, without compromising on the withdraw deadline.
Paul: what is the FAA-related bill, exactly, and how are the Dems approaching that as opposed to how the Republicans did previously?
So far, there are good signs: polls show that about 60% of the American people favor the Democratic plan, with only about 40% disapproving–which means the moderates and independents seem on the Democratic side.
Those poll number you refer to isn’t proof that 60% of the people have the correct solution. All it proves is that these are the beliefs they hold. I’ve read other polls that say people believe – whether they want our troops to come home or not – that things will go downhill if we bail out of there. People are sometimes too in thrall of their emotions to see reason. The truth is, sending a bill with provisions that have nothing to do with Iraq or defense spending is bogus. And timetables are the dumbest idea in the history of military procedure. If we pull out immediately, without allowing any solidarity in Iraq to establish itself, then we’ll have a tougher war on terrorism for many years to come. I know you’re going to call me a fear-mongerer. So be it. It’s a fact. Making this work is our only chance of resolving this struggle, or at the very least gaining credibility.