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A New Low, a New Lead

June 25th, 2008

A new L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll has Bush at 23%. Not that this is surprising–frankly, I have always been amazed that Bush did not drop into the teens or lower, but then I have almost always had this impression of the man. But I thought that 29% was a kind of barrier, save for minor fluctuations–that Bush would have to molest a child on national television to get that die-hard core following to start disapproving of him. So 23% is kind of surprising.

But what is more surprising is that it’s the Times/Bloomberg poll. If you look at the history of that poll, for the last year or more, you’ll see what surprises me: it has almost always been one that has Bush’s highest ratings. It’s an outlier, but like Rasmussen, it’s a high-end outlier. Only once in the past year did it have numbers that were not on the high end of all the other polls taken at the same time.

So for this poll to have Bush at 23% is pretty stunning. It could, however, be a blip, an anomaly, as most other polls have Bush hovering around 29%. But it’s pretty clear that this is not great news for John McCain.

Especially since the same poll puts Obama ahead of McCain by 12 points, 49% to 37%. Obama scored even better with Barr and Nader included, ahead of McCain by 15 points, 48% to 33%.

Another indication that this might not be an outlier: a recent Newsweek poll put Obama ahead by 15 points, and at the time, everyone thought the poll was crazy.

Now, not quite so much.

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  1. Tim Kane
    June 26th, 2008 at 00:24 | #1

    What amazes me is that, here in Korea, their conservative President, won a landslide victory in December, now only has a 17% approval rating, simply because he mishandled one issue, importing American Beef, very badly (from the local point of view). Yet we in the United States have the worst President in history, easily the worst leader in the civilized world, and he still pols near 30%.

    In a right minded world, one million people would surround the white house and not leave until both Bush and Cheney resigned.

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