I have a new mantra this election season: turnout. I’ve been talking about it for weeks, posting on discussion forums–and just realized that I had not expounded on it here in my own blog.

There is much talk about the race this year, and what factors might affect it. Despite the recent month or two, with Bush’s PR people floundering, talk about the race from this point onward has been pessimistic of a Democratic victory. Bush has a $170 million war chest, filled with special interest money, and will use it to decimate Kerry. Nader has joined the race, and that will draw votes away from the Democratic candidate. Kerry is a senator, and no senator has directly been elected president since Kennedy. Kerry’s record is long and is full of targets for the GOP to shoot at, painting him as a Massachusetts liberal.

But there is reason to see things going the other way. Dean had a huge war chest, but Kerry won anyway. The economy is not doing too well, especially when it comes to jobs; if that continues, Bush could have big trouble. Osama bin Laden is still on the loose; if he is not captured, and there are no big victories in the War on Terror(TM), then again it would look bad for Bush. The planned elections at the end of June look like they won’t happen, and may be pushed back to election time or later–and our troops will still be in Iraq beyond the elections, and they will probably, unfortunately, still be dying. The WMD case will still be there, and Bush’s credibility will still be in question. And there may be fallout from two criminal investigations in the GOP: the theft of computer files by Senate Republicans, and possible arrests and prosecutions of Cheney staffers in the Valerie Plame affair.

But ever since Iowa, I have been hearing one word that has great significance, but almost no one is really talking about: turnout.

The Iowa caucus had a turnout above 124,000, more than double the number of people who attended in 2000. In New Hampshire, a record 219,000 Democrats came out to vote, more than turned out in 1992, the last high-turnout year; turnout this time was about 40% higher than in 2000. New Mexico saw double the expected turnout, and numbers in Nevada were several times greater than previous elections. Michigan and Wisconsin both saw the second-highest turnout ever, with Wisconsin getting its highest turnout since 1980. I saw the same thing here in Japan–the number of attendees for the Tokyo caucus for Democrats Abroad was four times higher than 2000. In France, they predicted a record turnout of 300, and more than double that number showed up.

In almost every state where a primaries and caucuses have been held this year, there have been record turnouts of Democrats. What is more, Bush’s support is turning out to be soft. In the New Hampshire primary, Bush only got 77.9% of the Republican vote, even though he was uncontested. 11.9% of the remaining votes by Republicans were for Democratic candidates.

Bush has the support of his base, but his fringe is showing signs of dropping away, and Republicans–many of them very disappointed in the massive Republican spending spree–are not very energized. Democrats, on the other hand, are stridently galvanized. After three years of Bush, liberals and many moderates as well are–and there’s no better way of putting this–massively pissed off. Those who were willing to give Bush a chance feel that they were lied to. The tax cuts turned out to be paltry, and the price for them far too high. They see rampant corruption, a quagmire war that Bush lied to them about, and a $750 billion dollar turnaround from Clinton surpluses to Bush deficits. They are mad as hell, and they are showing it with their votes.

What is exciting about all this is the fact that high turnout against Bush will not just sweep the Democratic candidate into office. Those who go to vote Democrat will do so down the line, which means that there could very well be a dramatic coat-tails effect for congressional seats. Two seats in the Senate, a few more than a dozen in the House, and Democrats could regain control.

Yes, I know I may be hoping for too much. But the signs so far are excellent. At the very least, it will be very telling to keep an eye on turnouts from this point on, with Kerry almost certain to be the Democratic candidate, and to see how voter registration drives work out.