A Reminder About the Polls
You may notice that most polls have Bush out ahead by a few percentage points. The question is, how reliably does this predict the outcome? We know that this year, several of the polls have weighted their results much too far to the Republican voter side. But what about four years ago?
Look at this article, just where we are now–four days before the election–from the 2000 election. The polls had Bush ahead by three to six points. And in the actual election, Gore wound up getting half a million more votes than Bush. the difference between then and now:
| Poll | 2000 | 2004 |
| CNN/Gallup | Bush +6 | Bush +5 |
| ABC | Bush +5 | Bush +3 |
| Zogby | Bush +3 | TIE |
In short, if past polling is any indication, Kerry could possibly take this one by a few percentage points. And remember, that election had fewer volatiles breaking for the Democrat–this election, the youth and minority votes promise to swing as-yet unmeasured votes Kerry’s way.