Archive

Archive for the ‘Election 2008’ Category

A Man With Two Clocks

April 9th, 2008 1 comment

There’s an old saying: a man with one clock always knows what time it is; a man with two clocks never knows what time it is.

Well, in the race for Pennsylvania, we’ve got a good half-dozen clocks, easy. Here are seven polls that have come out in the past week or so:

Rasmussen: Clinton +5
SurveyUSA: Clinton +18
ARG: Tied
Quinnipac: Clinton +6
InsiderAdvantage: Clinton +3
Muhlenberg: Clinton +10
PPP: Obama +2

So, either Pennsylvanians are shifting massively on a near-daily basis, or some of these polls are figuring things wrong–unless the margin of error spans a full 20%. Worse, any poll relative to its own precursor might say things are moving in opposite directions; SurveyUSA has Clinton surging ahead 6 points over her last poll, while PPP shows Obama surging by 18 points. Rassmussen has virtually unchanged numbers over the same time span, whereas Quinnipac shows Hillary gaining 3 points, and ARG has Obama gaining 12 points.

In short, these numbers are all over the place. One can only guess that each pollster is making different adjustments to the data, trying to factor in race, gender, age, the new population of recently-registered voters, etc., and coming to different conclusions about who will come out and in what strength. If the state were an open primary, things would probably look even more crazy, I’m guessing.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Rice as VP?

April 8th, 2008 1 comment

I am kind of surprised at the continued talk about having Condi Rice run as VP with John McCain. Why? Is Rice so popular? Does she have such a huge following? This is a person who is so integrally involved in the George W. Bush administration, first as National Security Advisor, then as Secretary of State, that you might as well have Bush himself run as McCain’s VP. Nothing would signal a stark continuation of Bush’s policies and failures more than having Rice on the ticket–and along with that, the administration’s sub-30% popularity rating. Rice’s personal ratings have been higher–around the 50% mark–but that may well reflect her image relative to the Bush administration, rather than viewed from a perspective of her having come from that administration.

Coming on as a VP candidate, Rice would carry with her the baggage of Bush, like a defense witness opening the door to a whole new line of questioning. Obama would be able to smash such a ticket with every failure of the past eight years. Rice would really not add anything substantial–McCain is already supposed to have (note: supposed to have, not actually have) foreign policy and security credentials that Rice would not be able to add to.Whatever positives she brings in experience are more than dragged down by the heavy debacles of the past two terms; Rice has no sterling accomplishments to glide on, nothing that makes her stand out except her experience. And if Obama wins the nomination, then he’ll have shown that claims of experience are not enough to turn the trick.

So why, again and again and again, does Rice’s name come up in conservative circles above anyone else’s? The answer, of course, is so blindingly obvious that one really does not have to say it. Republicans have been trying to paint the Obama campaign in racial terms, claiming that his color is really the only important thing about him. When it comes down to it, that’s simply the way they think… and it shows in their enthusiasm for an otherwise unappealing VP choice.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Campaign News for the Day

April 6th, 2008 4 comments

Side note: the first post to this blog using blog software was five years ago to this day. Not my first blog post ever, though–that was August 5th, 2002, just shy of a year before I started nonstop blogging, and I was coding the pages by hand then. Reading it, can you tell I was upset about something?

Obama has now led in the Gallup tracking poll for 15 days, the longest stretch he’s maintained to date (Obama has held an unnaturally steady 49% for five days). Previously, he had held the lead for 17 days in the latter part of February, but Hillary had jumped a point ahead on one day and tied him for the lead on another day, breaking the stretch. During Obama’s February lead, he was ahead of Hillary an average of 3.7% per day; in Obama’s latest stretch, he has led Hillary by an average of 4.6%, including a 10% lead where Obama sat at 52% (on March 29th), his highest lead in the race so far, a number Hillary herself enjoyed for only one day in her campaign (on February 5th) before Obama started seriously challenging her nationally.


MoveOn.org has compiled a top-ten list of facts everyone should know about John McCain:
10 things you should know about John McCain (but probably don’t):

1. John McCain voted against establishing a national holiday in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Now he says his position has “evolved,” yet he’s continued to oppose key civil rights laws.

2. According to Bloomberg News, McCain is more hawkish than Bush on Iraq, Russia and China. Conservative columnist Pat Buchanan says McCain “will make Cheney look like Gandhi.”

3. His reputation is built on his opposition to torture, but McCain voted against a bill to ban waterboarding, and then applauded President Bush for vetoing that ban.

4. McCain opposes a woman’s right to choose. He said, “I do not support Roe versus Wade. It should be overturned.”

5. The Children’s Defense Fund rated McCain as the worst senator in Congress for children. He voted against the children’s health care bill last year, then defended Bush’s veto of the bill.

6. He’s one of the richest people in a Senate filled with millionaires. The Associated Press reports he and his wife own at least eight homes! Yet McCain says the solution to the housing crisis is for people facing foreclosure to get a “second job” and skip their vacations.

7. Many of McCain’s fellow Republican senators say he’s too reckless to be commander in chief. One Republican senator said: “The thought of his being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He’s erratic. He’s hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me.”

8. McCain talks a lot about taking on special interests, but his campaign manager and top advisers are actually lobbyists. The government watchdog group Public Citizen says McCain has 59 lobbyists raising money for his campaign, more than any of the other presidential candidates.

9. McCain has sought closer ties to the extreme religious right in recent years. The pastor McCain calls his “spiritual guide,” Rod Parsley, believes America’s founding mission is to destroy Islam, which he calls a “false religion.” McCain sought the political support of right-wing preacher John Hagee, who believes Hurricane Katrina was God’s punishment for gay rights and called the Catholic Church “the Antichrist” and a “false cult.”

10. He positions himself as pro-environment, but he scored a 0–yes, zero–from the League of Conservation Voters last year.


Obama on Intelligent Design, Evolution, and Science:
Q: York County was recently in the news for a lawsuit involving the teaching of intelligent design [in Dover, PA]. What’s your attitude regarding the teaching of evolution in public schools?

A: “I’m a Christian, and I believe in parents being able to provide children with religious instruction without interference from the state. But I also believe our schools are there to teach worldly knowledge and science. I believe in evolution, and I believe there’s a difference between science and faith. That doesn’t make faith any less important than science. It just means they’re two different things. And I think it’s a mistake to try to cloud the teaching of science with theories that frankly don’t hold up to scientific inquiry.”

Well said.


Finally, some black clergymen gather and discuss Obama and the Wright controversy. Some interesting stuff in there. The first quote:
Rev. Earl Blackwell of the Seventh Day Adventist Church in Coatesville: Just speaking personally, the controversy with Wright was created by the media. You can take excerpts from my sermons, and I would be considered a Rev. Wright. But when you listen to the whole content of his sermons, he was speaking directly to the prejudiced, racist, biased community of our nation. And what he was saying, in fact, was generally the truth. The thing is we need to start facing is the reality of situations rather than running from them … What is also significant is that the media would pick that as some way to degrade or make a negative about Obama, and he wasn’t even there, sitting in the congregation. He’s never endorsed his pastor to be his spokesman. For the media to pick and nick, that only encourages me even more to push and prod forward with the support of Sen. Obama.

Read the rest.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Bits & Pieces, April 5, 2008

April 5th, 2008 4 comments

Final exams have finished this semester, but I still have quite a lot of grading left to do by Monday. Didn’t get much done today because of a doctor’s appointment and a school event–a local fair where the college could put up a table and try to sign people up for our evening classes. It was free for us because we advertise in the local newsletter, and we got about a dozen bites and maybe a chance at better publicity for the school after talking to a local filming team. But I was tasked to put together a 5-minute movie showcasing the school, and that took up all of yesterday evening and night. So tomorrow and Monday will be mostly for getting those grades done. After that, there are various events, but I’ll have much of the month off.

That said, let’s look at some bits & pieces from today’s political news.


Clinton finally released her tax records, and with them revealed the reason she’s likely been reluctant to have them out there: the Clintons have gotten stinking rich since leaving the White House. $109 million in eight years. Makes it a bit harder to make blue-collar workers in Pennsylvania believe that you feel their pain. And the tax records are not even complete–they filed for an extension for 2007, so much of what happened in that year will likely remain a mystery.

The papers mention that the Clintons gave more than the Obamas to charity as a percent of their overall income, but it’s a lot easier to give 9.5% of $14 million per year and enjoy the remaining $12 million-plus, than it is to give the same from an income of half a million per year while you’re still paying off massive college loans. The Clinton’s $109 million makes the Obama’s $3.9 million seem paltry in comparison.


Another thing that could give Clinton a harder time in Pennsylvania: Mark Penn, her chief campaign strategist, has been lobbying for the Columbians to get them a trade deal Clinton says she opposes. Penn called it an “error in judgment,” an was successfully able to spin the story to prominently mention that Hillary opposes what he was trying to lobby for.

Remember, Obama got slammed in the media for a good week or so when a low-level advisor was characterized in notes taken by a conservative foreign government as saying that Obama’s anti-NAFTA rhetoric on the trail should not be taken so seriously. This was successfully spun by Clinton and the media to mean “Obama lied on NAFTA and will screw all you hard-workng Ohioans.” This despite the fact that the context of the whole memo more or less followed exactly what Obama had been promising publicly and indicated no contradiction–and then there was the fact that Hillary was the first one reported by Canadians as saying she was not really against NAFTA.

And let’s not forget what Hillary said back then:

I would ask you to look at this story and substitute my name for Sen. Obama’s name and see what you would do with this story… Just ask yourself [what you would do] if some of my advisers had been having private meetings with foreign governments.

Um… yeah, what would we do, Hillary?

However, Clinton seems to be getting yet another break in the media (they don’t want her campaign to die, it would be less interesting and would not sell as many ads that way), as her chief advisor, a major player in her campaign, lobbies for a trade deal beneficial to a foreign government–and the MSM barely pays notice. This should be twice the embarrassment for Clinton that the Canadian thing was for Obama, but so far, not much is being said that’s going to hurt her too much. Most stories bear headlines that stress Penn’s “apology” and Clinton’s opposition to such a deal. Strange Obama did not get the same break when something far less troubling happened to him before a big blue-collar primary.

Not that this will help Clinton in Pennsylvania, of course.


More and more, it seems like Clinton supporters are catching on to the fact that Hillary’s chances of winning are close to zero, and that her campaign style is killing Democratic chances in the general election. More and more Democrats are edging away from her campaign, some even calling outright for fellow Clinton supporters to get behind Obama and show a unified front. Meanwhile, Obama is steadily chipping away at Clinton’s once-formidable 20-point lead in Pennsylvania; most polls have Obama behind by only single digits, a few have him almost in a statistical dead heat, and one even puts Obama ahead in the Keystone state.

Already Obama is seeing more support–Jimmy Carter, for example, left little doubt that he will pledge his superdelegate vote for Obama. And Hillary is starting to hurt even more in the pocketbook, as she raises less relative to Obama than before, and is said to be in serious debt while Obama’s coffers overflow.

If Obama even comes within a few points in Pennsylvania, Clinton’s support will probably begin to collapse–and if Obama wins there, more people will probably forego their reticence in calling for Hillary to step down.


McCain, meanwhile, is returning about $3 million in donations, as the media reports that he is “considering” public funding. But this does not mean that he has realized he cannot withdraw from public financing for the primary season and is making sure he stays within the law–no, he’s still in violation of federal law in that regard, and the media is still giving him a gargantuan break on that.

What McCain is doing is returning money donated for the general election period, and he’s returning it with a request to re-donate it to a different fund he’ll use for other purposes. The biggest impact of this news seems to be that McCain is thinking seriously of going the public-finance route for the general election–he seems to think this will be something he can use against Obama, and with the media’s willingness to give McCain a break for his past public-financing legislation, it could even work. Despite the fact that Obama does not take any money from federal lobbyists or PACs, and that the vast majority of his donations are small ones by private persons–the antithesis of campaign finance corruption. Meanwhile, McCain continues to surround himself with swarms of lobbyists, and again, the MSM fails to notice.

McCain has little to lose here, considering that Obama has been out-raising him by something like five-to-one. And Obama could potentially use McCain’s lobbyist swarm and his violation of campaign finance law to blunt McCain’s strategy, while outspending McCain even more than Republicans have outspent Democrats in the past.

Categories: "Liberal" Media, Election 2008 Tags:

Some Fun

March 27th, 2008 1 comment

Obama Girl (Amber Lee Ettinger) is back with a new video, “Hillary! Stop the Attacks! Love, Obama Girl.”

But much more funny is this uncovered footage of Hillary arriving in Bosnia under heavy fire and mortar attack:

“Top generals agree that there is no place more dangerous and snipery than Bosnia right now.”

Looks like I was wrong about Hillary again!

Categories: Election 2008, The Lighter Side Tags:

What the Hell?

March 27th, 2008 2 comments

I thought it was weird when Hillary Clinton snuggled up to conservative media mogul Rupert Murdoch, even to the extent of having him run a fundraiser for her and accepting donations from Murdoch and other Fox News execs.

But now there’s a photo of Hillary sitting down to have an interview with Richard Mellon Scaife, one of the most rabid right-wing attack dogs during the Clinton years.

WTF?

I can’t bring myself to believe in some bizarre conspiracy between Hillary and hard-core right-wing sleaze merchants, but I do have to ask, what the hell is Hillary thinking and doing?

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Will Hillary Leave Her Pastor?

March 26th, 2008 2 comments

Via Andrew Sullivan:

“The Reverend Jeremiah Wright is an outstanding church leader whom I have heard speak a number of times. He has served for decades as a profound voice for justice and inclusion in our society. He has been a vocal critic of the racism, sexism and homophobia which still tarnish the American dream. To evaluate his dynamic ministry on the basis of two or three sound bites does a grave injustice to Dr. Wright, the members of his congregation, and the African-American church which has been the spiritual refuge of a people that has suffered from discrimination, disadvantage, and violence. Dr. Wright, a member of an integrated denomination, has been an agent of racial reconciliation while proclaiming perceptions and truths uncomfortable for some white people to hear. Those of us who are white Americans would do well to listen carefully to Dr. Wright rather than to use a few of his quotes to polarize. This is a critical time in America’s history as we seek to repent of our racism. No matter which candidates prevail, let us use this time to listen again to one another and not to distort one another’s truth.”

Who said this?

Dean J. Snyder, Foundry United Methodist Church, March 19, 2008.

Why is that significant?

Snyder is Hillary Clinton’s pastor. See comments.

Oops. If Hillary’s pastor approves of Wright, and Hillary feels that Wright is unacceptable, then her pastor must be just as unacceptable to Hillary, by the same association she foists upon Obama. Which means that in order not to be a hypocrite, Hillary must denounce her own pastor and leave his church.

Think she will?

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Political News of the Day

March 24th, 2008 1 comment

Have you heard of the recent “Winter Soldier” event? Probably not, and there’s a reason for it. Winter Soldier is named after a similar event following the Vietnam War–you probably heard of that one, seeing as how conservatives used it to call John Kerry a traitor. The event this time around, like the last, is one where soldiers returning from war tell of the horrors they saw and experienced, and speak both eloquently and powerfully against the need for the wars being waged. These soldiers are protesting the Iraq War, and while soldiers supporting the war tend to be given coverage, the media is all but silent about this much more provocative and important event.

In fact, though regional and local papers have dedicated a few columns to it, the mainstream media, the big, national news outlets, have been completely silent on this rather significant news story. The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, CNN, CBS, ABC, Fox–none of them have written a single word on the event. MSNBC had an article, but they inexplicably took it down less than a week after the story was published.

Why the silence? Why not honor the service of these soldiers, and hear the message they have to tell us?

Go ahead, read. (Hat tip to Charles for this story.)


A card-carrying member of the Liberal Media™ reveals the left wing’s secret agenda to destroy Republicans and give liberals a break. From NBC journalist Chuck Todd, commenting on the media’s treatment of John McCain after repeatedly confusing Sunni al Qaeda with Shiite extremists:
Even if he gets dinged on the experience stuff, “Oh, he says he’s Mr. Experience. Doesn’t he know the difference between this stuff?” He’s got enough of that in the bank, at least with the media, that he can get away with it. I mean, the irony to this is had either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama misspoke like that, it’d have been on a running loop, and it would become a, a big problem for a couple of days for them.

It’s an everyday thing to see the media acting this way. It’s far more rare for them to come out and admit it.


Also under the category of “Why Won’t the Damned Liberal Media™ Ever Give Poor John McCain a Break?” is the media disparity in reporting religious affiliations. Yes, Obama’s pastor said things which, out of the context of his community and its history, sound pretty shocking to White America; however, Obama has made clear that he denounces such speech, and has made equally clear that Wright is about far more than just those few words. At the very least, this story should be on equal grounds with John McCain’s story, where he actively sought and publicized the endorsement of the even more offensive John Hagee, who has said stuff like, “All Muslims are programmed to kill and we can thus never negotiate with any of them,” or that gays caused Katrina or that we should hasten the apocalypse by invading Iran. At the very most, you can say that these sound shocking out of the context of the fundamentalist Christianity–in other words, that McCain’s religious affiliations are no less damning than Obama’s.

So, does the media cover them equally? Hell, no. Does the media cover them just a bit disproportionately? Nope, not that, either. In fact, while the media just won’t let go of the Wright story, injecting it in stories about Obama that have nothing to do with Wright, the same Liberal Media™ virtually ignores the Hagee story, writing almost nothing about it at all.

Meanwhile, Obama tends to get grilled not only for what his pastor said, but for what other people say or do, apparently just because they’re black, too. (As I write this, CNN is running the Wright video clips for the millionth time.)


The buzz is getting louder on what exactly Hillary must think she’s doing in this race, in that it seems pretty close to impossible for her to win without wreaking serious havoc within the party, alienating a huge number of Democrats, and virtually handing the presidency to John McCain. She’s too far behind in delegates, has now lost the chance to get Florida to boost her up even somewhat, and has just received a major blow with Bill Richardson, a man very close to the Clintons, who perhaps owes his career to them, giving his endorsement to Barack Obama instead. And it now seems that Obama has weathered the Wright storm very well and is back on top in the polls, showing that he can survive and flourish even under the worst conditions possible for him.

The rundown: Hillary can’t win this. She should withdraw. But it’s pretty obvious that she won’t, probably not even if Pennsylvania goes badly for her. She’s going to hang on no matter what, and she’s going to hurt the Democratic cause in a major fashion by doing so. The general consensus is, she should read the handwriting on the wall and drop out, giving the Democrats a far greater chance of winning.

But some see even baser motives in Clinton’s Quixotic challenge: that if Obama wins, he’ll be the new boss of the Democratic Party, while if Clinton or McCain win, the Clintons will maintain their control. Yikes! That’s a pretty harsh charge–that Hillary would be willing to sink the Democratic chances at the presidency just to maintain political control over the Democrats. I would not quite go so far as to accuse her of that… but I would not put it past her at this point, either.


Here are some interesting political results out of the technology community:
IT workers are evenly split between Barack Obama and John McCain as their choice for the next president of the United States, according to a new survey by the Computing Technology Industry Association and Rasmussen Reports.

The survey of IT workers, taken in early March, shows Obama and McCain in a dead heat, with each receiving 39 percent of the vote, and Hillary Clinton trailing at 13 percent.

The survey also shows that while 35 percent of IT workers identify themselves as Republicans and another 26 percent call themselves Democrats, 40 percent chose no party affiliation. An overwhelming majority—75 percent—put themselves in the conservative-moderate political spectrum.

Interesting that Obama does so well in a right-of-center environment; equally interesting to note that if Clinton were not in the picture, her support would almost certainly shift to Obama, giving him the clear advantage here.

Not a November prognosticator or anything, but interesting nonetheless.


Obama has called for a dialog on race. Fortunately or unfortunately, that dialog is already beginning to work; we’re beginning to see the true raw edge of white hatred beginning to peek out a little bit more honestly:
But Obama has invited us to talk about race.

Okay. I’m accepting the invitation. He can regret it at his leisure.

I don’t hate black people. I can’t pretend to be color-blind because absolutely nothing in my culture will allow me to be. I admire Thomas Sowell, Duke Ellington, Roberto Clemente, Muhammed Ali, Alexandre Dumas, Sidney Poitier, Denzel Washington, Count Basie, Tiger Woods, and Bill Cosby. There are many others but that’s a sampling of the famous folks whose courage, genius, character, and achievements I would be proud if I could get anywhere in the vicinity of. The bald truth of the matter is that they’re better than I am, and it doesn’t arouse a flicker of racial feeling in me to acknowledge it. They have enriched and elevated my own experience of life.

On the other hand, I am sick to death of black people as a group. The truth. That is part of the conversation Obama is asking for, isn’t it? I live in an eastern state almost exactly on the fabled Mason-Dixon line. Every day I see young black males wearing tee shirts down to their knees — and jeans belted just above their knees. I’m an old guy. I want to smack them. All of them. They are egregious stereotypes. It’s impossible not to think the unthinkable N-Word when they roll up beside you at a stoplight in their trashed old Hondas with 19-inch spinner wheels and rap recordings that shake the foundations of the buildings. It’s like a broadcast dare: Go ahead! Call me a nigger! And then I’ll cap your ass.

Here’s the dirty secret all of us know and no one will admit to. There ARE niggers. Black people know it. White people know it. And only black people are allowed to notice and pronounce the truth of it. Which would be fine. Except that black people are not a community but a political party. They can squabble with each other in caucus but they absolutely refuse to speak the truth in public. And this is the single biggest obstacle to healing the racial divide in this country. The dammed-up flood of good will in this nation for black people who want to work for their own American Dream is absolutely enormous. The biggest impediment is the doubt created in each and every non-black American by the clannish, tribalist, irrational defense of every low act committed by any black person. If you’re offended when Republicans defend Richard Nixon or when Democrats defend Chuck Schumer, imagine what it’s like when black people swarm the streets to defend Jeremiah Wright.

I’m not proposing the generalized use of the term, just trying to be clear for once, in the wake of Obama’s call for us to have a dialogue about race. However much they may scream and protest, black people will know what I mean when I demand they concede that the following people are niggers:

– Jeremiah Wright
– O.J. Simpson
– Marion Barry
– Alan Iverson
– William Jefferson
– Louis Farrakhan
– Mike Tyson

You know what I mean. They hold you back. They’re dirty, violent, and stupid. They make you look bad, and you foul yourselves by defending them, by reelecting them to office, by admiring them in spite of all their awful behavior.

I think this post is important in that it highlights a way that right-wingers legitimize racist views. They know that they don’t hate all blacks, and can list blacks they admire (all too evocative of the old “some of my best friends” line), and so use this as proof that they are not racist–whereupon they then release some pretty baldly racist invective. In this case, you have the person involved spilling forth a list of people he feels that deserve the base epithet, and the only common factor among them is that they are black and have said or done questionable or illegal things (are all whites who have similar pasts “crackers,” or whatever the epithet is today?). The claim is that they are defended and admired only because they are black (which somehow makes them qualified for the epithet), a charge you’d have a hard time defending for most of the people on that list. I don’t see Mike Tyson defended because he’s black, any more than so many other celebrities, most of them white, who get off with less than most people simply because of their celebrity (in fact, one could name more white celebrities who get treated more lightly than most black celebrities who break the law–and they certainly get far less attention, and no mention of race). William Jefferson? Don’t make me laugh. That’s entirely political, with the equivalent going for many white Republicans who committed similar crimes.

In fact, looking at the list, one quickly sees a pattern with most of those names: they are not all defended just because of their race, but almost all of them are singled out because of it. Seriously, there are white preachers who have said a lot worse than Farrakhan or Wright, but few who have been demonized as much as they have been because of it, and none that I have heard of who have been highlighted for “whites” or “Christians” being apologists for them; somehow, this is only notable with black preachers and those who follow them.

Even this relatively pedestrian display of racism is offered only upon the invitation to speak publicly about such things, and still you will not hear many people speaking so openly about such opinions. The scary thing is, if you look at the rhetoric that has long poured out of the conservative community, you can see this mindset lurking just beneath the surface, every once in a while peeking out. But it stays beneath the surface because it gets rightly slapped down when it comes out into the light of day. People who hold these views have learned to keep them hidden, to not speak it out loud. You can still make out their shape under the thin veneer of right-wing diatribe.

The positive view of all this is that it is best to pull out this fear and hatred into the light of day so that the people who feel and think this way can be presented with evidence that what they believe is not supported by fact or reality. And while that may work with a good many Americans, there is a large base of right-wing extremists who will refuse to change, no matter what the discussion. Unfortunately, these tend to be the same people who believe that George W. Bush is a great president, the Iraq War is a good thing and the administration never lied about it, and a mass of other pipe dreams which can be just as easily disproved. But the people who believe these things are not swayed by facts; they believe their guts, and short of a complete breakdown of their social support mechanism, which is unlikely to happen, most of them will not be moved by an open discussion on race. We’ve tried to move them on so much else, to no avail. Perhaps the only thing to do is to so stigmatize these racist ideas that they wither away and die slowly over time. I wish I could be more optimistic, but it is difficult to be optimistic in the face of the utter intransigence of far-right fear and loathing.

Despite what Dubya tells us, this is anything but a color-blind society. A lot of this is revealed in how race is treated when the race-baiting is anonymous. Subscribe to Scopes.com, and you’ll see what I am talking about. There are countless emails which constantly vilify blacks, some of them so baldly racist as to make you cringe. Most of these don’t make any of the news, but they are passed around by who knows how many hundreds of thousands or perhaps millions of people. Want a recent and very wince-inducing example? Check out this one–which takes an old group portrait of Obama and relatives (perhaps including friends, some people in the shot are unidentified), and gives them fake names and histories–calling some of Obama’s relatives “crack addicts,” criminals, and “gay porn stars,” then inviting the reader to imagine what will happen when “this bunch starts running around the White House.”

Looking at how Obama is treated in the MSM calls forth impressions that a similar thing is being done at a far more “civilized” level, and is just as overlooked–Tim Russert holding Obama responsible for what Harry Belafonte says and does, the whole media jumping on the Wright affair and linking it to Farrakhan and worse, while not making a peep about McCain and Hagee and other controversial preachers McCain has sought endorsements from.

Yes, a dialog on race is overdue, if for no other reason than to demonstrate that race is still a huge issue in the United States, and that the right wing needs to wash out a lot of its dirty laundry on the issue.

Suspicious Obfuscation of the Passport Breach

March 22nd, 2008 2 comments

Now the headlines have shifted: not just Obama’s, but all three candidates’ passport files were breached. This makes it sound less like political dirty tricks, so they say:

Because the unauthorized intrusions involved all three major presidential candidates, and involved employees at more than one contracting company, State Department investigators at this stage believe the incidents are the product of “curiosity” on the part of contractors’ employees, rather than some kind of political dirty trick.

That sounds reasonable, and is probably why they released the information about Clinton’s and McCain’s passport file breaches. If people were looking at all three files, well, then it’s not partisan, right?

The thing is, when you read further into the details, you realize that, at the very least, this impression is weak, and at the most, the information released may have been engineered to create a very false impression indeed. The Clinton “breach,” in fact, should not even have been included here, as it was not even close to being the same magnitude:

Mrs. Clinton’s passport file was breached last summer during a training session for State Department employees. A trainee was encouraged to enter a family member’s name into the passport database for training purposes, Mr. McCormack said. Instead, the trainee entered Mrs. Clinton’s name. Mr. McCormack said the trainee was promptly admonished.

In other words, there was a trainee under immediate and close supervision, in a situation where they almost certainly had no opportunity to print out or transcribe any amount of useful information–it was just some smart-ass trainee who typed in a name as a gag and was immediately discovered by a supervisor. That “breach” doesn’t belong in this report.

That leaves McCain’s records access:

McCormack said one of the individuals who accessed Obama’s files also reviewed McCain’s file earlier this year. This contract employee has been reprimanded, but not fired. The individual no longer has access to passport records, he said.

This report raises more questions than it answers; the employee accessed McCain’s file on one date, then Obama’s on another later date, and was only reprimanded? This person’s employer was apparently not disclosed, and the reasoning behind the lower level of punishment despite two breaches is not explained–but the impression is that this person’s access was somehow less improper, less liable to raise eyebrows, and perhaps less needful of investigation.

So take the third person out of the picture, at least until we know more about it. Fine. After also removing the Clinton access, what does that leave us?

Two different people, coincidentally working for the same firm, accessing Obama’s records only, on two separate occasions. That they both worked for the same firm, that neither were investigated or reported even after the second improper access of a presidential candidate, and that both were fired and so are now outside of the authority of the inspector to question, only intensifies suspicions, it does not belie them. Nothing about the Clinton or McCain incidents has any relation to these breaches; the suspicion of dirty tricks still remains in full force, and should be stronger, if anything.

And yet now we have even liberal blogs saying that there is less reason to be suspicious now. In other words, this was a well-played gambit–release just enough additional information to obfuscate and confuse the issue, even though at the core, the issue is more suspicious than before.

We still have no idea of the details behind the three Obama and one McCain accesses; we still don’t know what differentiates the person who looked at the two candidate’s files; we don’t know how long or under what circumstances any of those breaches were. Why not? Why were such details released about the Clinton access, but not the later accesses? While there is the very real possibility that this was, in fact, just several different people taking curious peeks for fun, there is too much unexplained for me to accept such an explanation–more now with this current ploy for obfuscation than there was before.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Breach

March 21st, 2008 11 comments

They say that this was not political in nature, but when three government contractors rifle through Barack Obama’s passport files at the State Department on three different instances over five weeks, it stinks to high heaven. Here’s where the Bush/Republican campaign to politicize the government bureaucracy has its damaging effects: considering how ardently partisan all aspects of the government under the Bush administration have become, it is impossible to see such a thing as this and not assume that there were partisan political motives involved–especially with a candidate who has lived overseas before, and whose enemies have been trying to cast him as some sort of Muslim terrorist. The fact that it took two months for this to be reported makes it even more suspicious.

On the crass, cynical political strategy level, this could be good for Obama–on the upswing after two strong speeches, this could generate sympathy and make people less liable to take criticism against him as seriously, as it is now apparent that people are illicitly rifling his personal records for damaging info.

Josh Marshall points out:

A few more details about the Obama passport breach. According to a new piece out in the Post from Glenn Kessler, the breaches occurred Jan. 9th, Feb. 21st and March 14th.

That would be the day after the New Hampshire primary, the day of the Democratic debate in Texas and the day the Wright story really hit.

On the one hand, that makes it even more suspicious. On the other hand, it would be hard to pick three dates out of those two months and not come out close to some significant landmark, there being so many.

In case it sounds to you like this wasn’t something done to damage Obama politically, one should remember that a similar thing happened to Bill Clinton in 1992. SOP for RNC election strategy?

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Lightweight

March 20th, 2008 1 comment

If Obama confused Sunni al Qaeda operatives with Iraqi Shiite extremists, not once but several times before he had to be corrected in public, then you can bet that this would be fairly big news–Obama the inexperienced foreign-policy lightweight doesn’t even know the difference between Sunnis and Shiites!

Of course, it wasn’t Obama–it was McCain, the guy who is supposed to be an expert on the subject, someone who is supposed to have the facts down cold on this. McCain making this mistake repeatedly should be a much bigger story… and yet, the media is hardly covering it. Surprise!

And in a Liberal Media™ double-whammy, not only are they not reporting much on this, but when they do report on it, they use this kind of headline:

Democrats jump on McCain’s Iran-Qaeda gaffe

As I have pointed out several times before, when Republicans attack Democrats for having made a mistake, the headlines focus on the mistake; but when Republicans make a mistake, the headlines emphasize how the Democrats are attacking them, as if the mistake is not worthy of mention by itself, giving the impression that the attack is political opportunism.

In just the past few weeks, we’ve learned that McCain is in violation of campaign finance laws according to the Republican head of the FCC; that despite the press touting his campaign finance reform history McCain surrounds himself with lobbyists and is proven to have interceded on their behalf on several occasions; and that despite the press touting his foreign policy experience, he repeatedly confuses even the most basic elements of the Iraqi situation. None of this is news to them. But if Obama’s pastor once said “God damn America,” then it gets played endlessly for days.

Sometimes you just wish that this damned Liberal Media™ would let up and give McCain a break!

Categories: "Liberal" Media, Election 2008 Tags:

Really?

March 20th, 2008 1 comment

Hillary Clinton, speaking to Michigan voters:

These nearly 2.5 million voters [in MI & FL] are in danger of being shut out of our democratic process. I think it’s wrong and frankly, I think it’s un-American.

I will protect and cherish the right to vote. I will always defend your right to vote no matter whom you choose to vote for.

So, if both those states had voted for Obama and the polls showed they still leaned toward him, she would still be demanding their votes be counted?

Please. We’re not stupid. If there is one thing that Hillary has demonstrated beyond any doubt whatsoever in this campaign, it is that she is willing to do just about anything to win the nomination. Her campaign has already announced on several occasions that states which vote for Obama “don’t count,” she stressed that superdelegates should vote for her even if it overturned the popular vote, and there have been repeated hints that she is geared up to try to flip pledged Obama delegates–delegates who represent people who voted for Obama–to switch to her side instead, effectively negating the votes of hundreds of thousands of people across the country.

You can bet your entire bank account on the fact that she’d be trashing the process if it didn’t benefit her. Are the people of Michigan and Florida aware of this fact?

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Ferraro and Wright, Clinton and Obama

March 20th, 2008 Comments off

If you want a good comparison of the difference between Clinton and Obama, see how each handled their back-to-back crises with Ferraro and Wright. Both denounced what their friends said, both accepted their resignations, neither ultimately distanced themselves too far from the person creating the controversy–so in those ways they acted similarly. But beyond that there was a world of difference. Where Clinton had the opportunity to speak out on both gender and race in a healing manner, she did not; she instead just sat there, waiting for the storm to pass. Obama, on the other hand, did something, something bold and risky, something important and healing.

Clinton only protected herself. Obama looked out for the nation.

Maybe experience is less important than other things.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

The Speech

March 19th, 2008 4 comments

Having watched the speech, I believe that even considering my clear bias toward the candidate, it is safe to say that he hit this one out of the park. There are perhaps no singular, memorable lines that will make the clip reel of great speeches, but the speech overall is as masterful as one expects from Obama’s rhetoric.

If you look at this speech, it embodies so much of what is good about Obama. At a time when many politicians would simply being doing damage control, Obama took this challenge and made it into an opportunity to address a larger issue of greater importance. He spoke in a healing manner about an issue which is as conspicuously divisive as it is covertly pervasive; instead of pretending that race is no longer a problem as pipe-dreaming conservatives often do (and as their very reaction to the Obama candidacy so thoroughly disproves), he confronted the issue head-on.

Instead of simply giving bland, feel-good platitudes that might comfort everyone in their falsehood and fantasize that problems don’t exist, he told all audiences, particularly blacks and whites, that we all have problems, we all make misjudgments. Obama has been known to tell you what you should hear instead of what you want to hear, and this was one such instance. Compare this with Bush’s “color blind” America, and Obama towers a hundred feet tall above that small sham of pretense. He would risk being honest where politicians usually run to the safe cover of make-believe utopia.

And that’s another positive here: Obama took a real risk here. Were this speech to fall flat, Obama could have hurt his campaign very badly, perhaps even putting his whole candidacy in jeopardy. This was not something long-planned, it was a real-time reaction, and Obama reacted perfectly. And he did it in a way that did not rely on sound bites, a very real risk; what he said could not be contained in small snippets, it has to be heard in length to be fully appreciated. This gives fuel to his detractors who can easily cut and dismember his speech so as to give a wrongful context (as I saw more than once on CNN today, for example). Instead of reducing the message to deformed ten-word sound bites, he laid it out in full, in a 37-minute speech, banking on the ability of Americans to take in more than the pundits care to dish out.

But most of all, the speech demonstrated Obama’s premiere talent: to take a divisive, controversial issue, contextualize it in a very real way at its core principles, recognize with full respect all the different views and perspectives, and lead his audience along the same path of logic and realization that he has traveled, bringing them all together to a common conclusion. That he does not demagogue or partisanize, that he does not take sides but instead respects all views, is the evidence of his ability to unify. This is not a man who would take such petty partisan digs like Bush or McCain when they call the Democratic Party the “Democrat Party,” to cite a small and spite-filled example. That’s why Obama in his worst hour stands so tall above those partisan hacks even at their best: he reaches out, and does not belittle. He respects, listens, and takes opposing viewpoints seriously. This passage highlights this ability clearly:

In fact, a similar anger exists within segments of the white community. Most working- and middle-class white Americans don’t feel that they have been particularly privileged by their race. Their experience is the immigrant experience – as far as they’re concerned, no one’s handed them anything, they’ve built it from scratch. They’ve worked hard all their lives, many times only to see their jobs shipped overseas or their pension dumped after a lifetime of labor. They are anxious about their futures, and feel their dreams slipping away; in an era of stagnant wages and global competition, opportunity comes to be seen as a zero sum game, in which your dreams come at my expense. So when they are told to bus their children to a school across town; when they hear that an African American is getting an advantage in landing a good job or a spot in a good college because of an injustice that they themselves never committed; when they’re told that their fears about crime in urban neighborhoods are somehow prejudiced, resentment builds over time.

Like the anger within the black community, these resentments aren’t always expressed in polite company. But they have helped shape the political landscape for at least a generation. Anger over welfare and affirmative action helped forge the Reagan Coalition. Politicians routinely exploited fears of crime for their own electoral ends. Talk show hosts and conservative commentators built entire careers unmasking bogus claims of racism while dismissing legitimate discussions of racial injustice and inequality as mere political correctness or reverse racism.

This is a man who can see how people who might disagree with him think and feel. He can understand their resentments and their viewpoints, and can fold them into his argument and make those people feel accepted instead of threatened, so they can then take in the other viewpoints which might otherwise be overlooked. This is not a man who would ever say anything so dumbly dogmatic or arrogant as “You’re either with us or you’re against us.”

Obama was in good form today; I want to say it was his best, but if you watch him enough, you’ll see that this is simply how he is, this is what he does so naturally. That’s why the crowds adore him–not because he’s black, and not even because he can use the right twist of a phrase. It’s the package deal–honesty, integrity, humility, understanding, acceptance, unity, strength, strategy, and perhaps even wisdom. Give me that over a few years’ more experience any day of the week, and twice on Sunday.

“Sunday” being an operative word here; one benefit to this “scandal” and to Obama’s speech is the fact that even his critics are saying he’s a Christian now. They can’t have it both ways, insinuating that he’s a Muslim (as if that would be a horrible thing) and at the same time attacking him for his 20-year relationship with his Christian pastor, his unwillingness to distance himself from his Christian church.

Nor did Obama throw his pastor to the wolves; while he repeatedly conceded that the man said things that offended even him, he placed the words in a brilliantly honest context. He did not try to paint Wright as a perfect man, but as a man with all the good and the bad that people will have, and did so in a way that I am sure so many can understand. One of the best passages of so many good passages from his speech makes it so humanly clear:

Given my background, my politics, and my professed values and ideals, there will no doubt be those for whom my statements of condemnation are not enough. Why associate myself with Reverend Wright in the first place, they may ask? Why not join another church? And I confess that if all that I knew of Reverend Wright were the snippets of those sermons that have run in an endless loop on the television and You Tube, or if Trinity United Church of Christ conformed to the caricatures being peddled by some commentators, there is no doubt that I would react in much the same way.

But the truth is, that isn’t all that I know of the man. The man I met more than twenty years ago is a man who helped introduce me to my Christian faith, a man who spoke to me about our obligations to love one another; to care for the sick and lift up the poor. He is a man who served his country as a U.S. Marine; who has studied and lectured at some of the finest universities and seminaries in the country, and who for over thirty years led a church that serves the community by doing God’s work here on Earth – by housing the homeless, ministering to the needy, providing day care services and scholarships and prison ministries, and reaching out to those suffering from HIV/AIDS. …

Like other predominantly black churches across the country, Trinity embodies the black community in its entirety – the doctor and the welfare mom, the model student and the former gang-banger. Like other black churches, Trinity’s services are full of raucous laughter and sometimes bawdy humor. They are full of dancing, clapping, screaming and shouting that may seem jarring to the untrained ear. The church contains in full the kindness and cruelty, the fierce intelligence and the shocking ignorance, the struggles and successes, the love and yes, the bitterness and bias that make up the black experience in America.

And this helps explain, perhaps, my relationship with Reverend Wright. As imperfect as he may be, he has been like family to me. He strengthened my faith, officiated my wedding, and baptized my children. Not once in my conversations with him have I heard him talk about any ethnic group in derogatory terms, or treat whites with whom he interacted with anything but courtesy and respect. He contains within him the contradictions – the good and the bad – of the community that he has served diligently for so many years.

I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community. I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother – a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe.

These people are a part of me. And they are a part of America, this country that I love.

This crystallized Obama’s reasons perfectly for me: sometimes people you love say things you disagree with, things that might even make you cringe; but you don’t discard them because of such things, because you know that they are good people, people you have grown to love and respect over your life, people whose goodness and heart you have come to know. And despite the critics’ hollow charges that he “threw his grandmother under the bus” by comparing her to Wright, what Obama did was so much more different: he humanized her, like he humanized Wright. He told a story which, while painful, gave clarity and understanding, and most importantly, the impact of truth to a situation now saturated with distortion and slander.

Andrew Sullivan put it very well:

I have never felt more convinced that this man’s candidacy – not this man, his candidacy – and what he can bring us to achieve – is an historic opportunity. This was a testing; and he did not merely pass it by uttering safe bromides. He addressed the intimate, painful love he has for an imperfect and sometimes embittered man. And how that love enables him to see that man’s faults and pain as well as his promise. This is what my faith is about. It is what the Gospels are about. This is a candidate who does not merely speak as a Christian. He acts like a Christian.

Bill Clinton once said that everything bad in America can be rectified by what is good in America. He was right – and Obama takes that to a new level. And does it with the deepest darkest wound in this country’s history.

Obama did something significant here. He demonstrated a trait that is supposed to be the epitome of Christian: forgiveness. He forgave Wright, and in a way, forgave the country where Wright damned it. This is what we need right now. All we have to do is weather the talking heads and hope enough TV stations see fit to put more than just the sound bites up so that more people can hear the message over the noise.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

It’s All About the Money

March 16th, 2008 1 comment

In 1980, Ronald Reagan skewered Jimmy Carter by asking the question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Well, let’s see how that question has been answered over the past 16 years, shall we? The results [PDF] of an NBC/WSJ poll:

Bowochart

Hmm. Things got steadily better under President Clinton, and steadily worse under President Bush.

John McCain promises to continue the policies of Bush.

Right now, McCain is still doing fairly strongly in match-ups between himself and the Democratic candidates. But that’s probably because the Democrats are the only ones being attacked so far; when McCain comes under cross-party scrutiny, there will be several new points of contrast brought up, this being one of them.

Put this under the header of, “It’s the Economy, Stupid.”

Oh, and by the way, the Liberal Media continues to completely ignore the fact that the McCain campaign is now in outright violation of campaign finance laws. A Republican breaking federal laws in a display of utter hypocrisy? I can only guess that such a thing is now so pedestrian that the press feels it is OK to just ignore it.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Through Apologizing

March 13th, 2008 3 comments

Seth Grahame-Smith goes a lot further than I would, but essentially he is correct in his analysis of Clinton and why Democrats are starting to like the Clintons a lot less than they did before the beginning of this year. I used to favor Hillary for the nomination, and even proposed a Hillary/Obama ticket. At the beginning of January, I noted that I switched from Hillary to Obama, but mainly for reasons that had little to do with dislike for Hillary. I disapproved of her tendency to run to the center, and feared she might be too easily pilloried in the general election, but I was still okay with Hillary in general, despite these worries. But as time went on, Hillary started using tactics and making moves that made me like her less and less–and made me start to feel more and more like Grahame-Smith.

Is this just because I now favor Obama and wouldn’t like anyone who opposed him? Possibly, but I don’t think so. Had Hillary fought a clean race, I could still like and respect her. It’s not that she opposes Obama, it’s how she opposes him. Had I backed Hillary, for example, I just can’t see myself getting as indignant or offended by how Obama is campaigning against her.

And with the way a lot of Democrats and even Independents are now reacting to Hillary, I’d have to say that I am not alone in this. If Hillary wins the nomination and the election, it will be with a lot of votes like mine–people who pulled the switch for her, but not without a great deal of distaste.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

I Don’t Think It’s Been a Picnic for Them Either, Geraldine

March 12th, 2008 Comments off

Hmm. Geraldine Ferraro, a strong Clinton supporter who Clinton has been aligned with, decides to opine on how Obama just got where he is because he’s black. When called out for making statements with racist overtones, instead of acting contrite, she retorts, “I really think they’re attacking me because I’m white. How’s that?”

On the eve of the Mississippi primary. Where 55% of voting Democrats are African-American.

Ouch.

Not that Clinton was really poised to win the state anyway, but this certainly doesn’t stand to give her a huge boost.

Here’s Ferraro’s reasoning:

I think what America feels about a woman becoming president takes a very secondary place to Obama’s campaign–to a kind of campaign that it would be hard for anyone to run against. For one thing, you have the press, which has been uniquely hard on her. It’s been a very sexist media. Some just don’t like her. The others have gotten caught up in the Obama campaign.

If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position. And if he was a woman (of any color) he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept.

A few problems here. First, the observation Ferraro makes is less of a contrast than she poses. She is suggesting that women have a harder time getting to places like Hillary is trying to get to than blacks do; however, there was a female VP candidate on a party ticket 24 years ago, and a female Speaker of the House just two years ago–both higher positions than African-Americans have been able to achieve. Blacks have gotten to other places earlier than women–the right to vote, a spot on the Supreme Court, for example–but it is not as if being black is that great an advantage.

This does not jibe with her theory, that all you have to be is black and you can vault ahead, while women have a much tougher time of things. Yes, blacks vote more for Obama, but women vote more for Hillary–and whites vote against Obama in several places as well. To suggest that being a woman is a disadvantage where being black is a bonus is far too simplistic and not altogether accurate in many ways. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. If being black is less of a hurdle than being a woman, the distinction is one of degree, not of complete contrast. And while the media is sexist, it is just as racist; as reluctant as they are to openly touch on racial issues, so are they on gender issues. As for the press being harder on Hillary, you know my opinion on that if you have read this blog; likely this is more a matter of a biased view than any real standard (that possibly applying to me in the reverse direction).

Ferraro’s claim is also insulting to blacks, belittling the challenges and difficulties they faced, suggesting that they somehow have it easy. It rings all to similarly to the white male charge of ‘reverse discrimination,’ where blacks who achieve something got there only because they’re black, only because somehow quotas or Affirmative Action gave them what they have.

And that’s the second big problem with Ferraro’s argument: it is condescending as hell to Obama and his supporters in a way that, despite Ferraro’s contentions, could very rightly be called racist. It says that he did not get to where he is because people like his ideas, nor because he has charisma, nor because of his positive message. No, they like him just because he’s black. The idea of inclusiveness is just a sham that nobody really thinks is worth anything; the positive tenor of his campaign does not really attract people; the quality of his rhetoric does not inspire his followers. No, they just see the color of his skin and open all the doors for him.

That’s not just racist, that’s stupid. It’s the same narrow-minded attack that Republicans tried against Obama from the very start, and it’s wrong. If Hillary had Obama’s talent for impassioned, electrifying rhetoric, if she had the same new-candidate freshness, the same inclusive appeal, the same positive message–Ferraro’s claim is that none of this would get her anywhere. And that’s wrong.

Maybe Ferraro is just cynical; she also said: “I was reading an article that said young Republicans are out there campaigning for Obama because they believe he’s going to be able to put an end to partisanship. Dear God! Anyone that has worked in the Congress knows that for over 200 years this country has had partisanship – that’s the way our country is.” Maybe she just believes that Obama’s popularity must be due to his color because she just can’t accept the idea of being inclusive, of accepting and embracing rather than dividing and attacking. But even that is not enough to excuse Ferraro’s crassness.

Obama vaulted to popularity in 2004 after his speech at the Democratic convention not because he was black, but because of the quality of the speech he made. He made a speech that inspired, a speech with wonderful cadence and appeal, a speech that said we are not red and blue, that we are all one people–this is what got him noticed.

To say that being black is what made the difference, or that none of these things would have helped him had he been white or a woman… it is just as appallingly wrong and bigoted as when the right-wingers tried it on Obama, and failed to get anywhere with it.

That Ferraro thinks she can just blow through the negative reaction, claim reverse racism, and eventually not have to pay any real price–and that she might just succeed–also goes to disprove her claim. Just as Obama’s personal qualities and ideas are more important than his color, Ferraro’s power and standing are showing to be more important than her gender.

Finally, there may be more to this than just a campaign tactic. Ben Smith at the Politico points out that in 1988, Ferraro said:

If Jesse Jackson were not black, he wouldn’t be in the race.

Make of that what you will.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Notes from the Campaign Trail

March 11th, 2008 1 comment

Big news: Democrats won a special election in Illinois’ 14th District, gaining a seat in the House. Why is that big news? Because the seat was Dennis Hastert’s, the former Republican Speaker of the House, a district that should have been an “easy seat” for the Republicans. Democratic candidate Bill Foster won 52% to 48%.

The fact is, Democrats could win big in 2008. We made huge gains in 2006; expecting only to win the House, we won it by a safe margin and won control of the Senate as well. This time, however, the wins could be even bigger–and not just because so many House Republicans are retiring this year and Democrats are winning special elections which are seen as bellwethers.

The numbers tell the story: in the Senate, there are 35 seats up for grabs–and 23 are Republican seats, with only 12 Democrats having to fight for their incumbency. Even better: a lot of those Republican seats are seriously threatened. Republican John Warner’s Virginia seat could be taken by Democrat and former governor Mark Warner. Al Franken has a good chance to take back the seat that Norm Coleman ungraciously grabbed from deceased Senator Paul Wellstone, capitalizing on smears that Democrats “hijacked” Wellstone’s memorial. John Sununu might lose his New Hampshire seat to Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Boulder Congressman Mark Udall might win the now-open seat vacated by a Republican in blue-shifting Colorado, where the Democratic convention will be held (expect him to make an appearance or two there). Oregon, Maine, and Nebraska could see a switch from right to left as well. And even powerful Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens, in a decidedly red state, could lose his seat to popular Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, in part due to Steven’s recent scandals.

We thought it was highly unlikely that Democrats could take the Senate in 2006. It seems just as unlikely that Democrats could win a filibuster-proof majority this year. Let’s hope those odds hold true.


3AmadRemember Hillary’s “3:00 am” girl? The cute little child sleeping in her bed while nasty threats lurked somewhere out there, and could only be dealt with by Hillary? Well, irony has its day: the video was 8-year-old stock footage; the actress will be old enough to vote this year, and is a “big” Obama fan:
Knowles, a senior at Bonney Lake High School who turns 18 next month, has been campaigning for Obama. She attended his rally at Seattle’s KeyArena on Feb. 8. Her mother, Pam, told The News Tribune of Tacoma that Casey cried and trembled after shaking the candidate’s hand.3Amgirl

The next day, she was a Democratic precinct captain for the state’s caucuses. If she plays her cards right, she could go to the national convention.

She thinks the Obama campaign should use her in a counter-ad. Think of the possibilities!

In other good news for Obama on the Hillary front: the New York scandal with governor Eliot Spitzer could help shoot down Hillary’s attacks against Obama by putting her on the defensive, in perception if not in action. The troubled governor is a Clinton superdelegate from her home state.

Recent late-night talk-show quips:

Jay Leno joked last night that Spitzer’s scandal “means Hillary Clinton is now only the second angriest woman in the state of New York.” David Letterman offered a Top 10 List of excuses Spitzer might cite, including the number one excuse: “I thought Bill Clinton legalized this years ago.”


Marshall brings up the perfect example of “Liberal Media” bias: a CNN piece slamming Obama. The piece references a fellow legislator felt that Obama was not a “bold” legislator. The problem? The “fellow legislator” was a Republican; this CNN mentioned. Worse: He works for John McCain in Illinois; this CNN did not mention. Whether they mention it or not, or even disregarding that the guy works for McCain, the question arises as to why CNN thinks it’s newsworthy that a Republican criticizes the Democratic front-runner for president. I am absolutely certain that they could find any number of Democrats who worked in Congress with John McCain who would be willing to testify that McCain is not as squeaky-clean on campaign finance as people think he is, and they wouldn’t even have to limit themselves to someone who works for Obama to find such a person–and yet I see no equivalent stories of that nature out there.

Why not?


I find myself in the bizarre position of agreeing with Bill Kristol:
Perhaps the most obvious way McCain could upend the normal dynamics of this year’s election would be a bold vice presidential choice. … He could persuade the most impressive conservative in American public life, Clarence Thomas, to join the ticket.

Wow! That would be great! Of course, it would never happen, but it would be fantastic! Thomas has a long string of bad decisions that would be easily made sport of on the campaign trail; his age and demeanor would complement McCain’s in the worst way; but best of all, Thomas would have to resign from the Supreme Court before it convened in October, and Democrats would probably be able to stall the nomination of another justice until after a Democrat takes office, relieving the court of one of its most ardently destructive right-wingers. All of which, of course, are reasons why it’ll never happen.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Slightly Presumptuous

March 10th, 2008 6 comments

Let it not be said that Hillary Clinton doesn’t make as much hay as possible out of every bump she gets. After winning in Ohio and kind-of winning in Texas, her campaign is painting itself as the eventual winner–to the point of pushing for the possibility of a Clinton/Obama ticket. Rather presumptuous, considering that her “victory” netted her very few delegates, and at this point she still trails Obama by 100 delegates, even counting the Supers. And after Obama’s landslide win in Wyoming, it’s just a wee bit too soon to be counting him out quite yet.

After Mississippi (which Obama is probably going to win by several touchdowns), the delegate count will be back to the same levels they were before Ohio, more or less erasing whatever advantage Hillary got last week save for the perception of her campaign not dying quite yet.

Pennsylvania will probably give Hillary a boost, but again, not enough to make a critical difference. She’d have to win by 10% in order to get a net gain of 25 delegates, and Obama would still be ahead by about 110 pledged delegates. Next up are North Carolina and Indiana. Obama should win the former and Clinton the latter–but North Carolina has a lot more delegates and Obama is known for winning by bigger margins. (There is a chance that Obama will do at least fairly well in Indiana, neutralizing any big win by Hillary.) Obama will probably make up some or even a lot of what he will have lost in Pennsylvania on this day. After that we get West Virginia and Oregon. Hillary is set to take West Virginia, but Obama is very strong in Oregon–and again, Obama’s state has more delegates. Obama is likely to make up even more of the Pennsylvania delegate damage, maybe even erasing it by this time.

After that, Clinton may clean up the remainders–Kentucky, Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota, though Obama could very possibly win one or more of those, nothing is sure. But assume that Clinton does win; she probably won’t do it by huge margins, and those four states are worth a total of 137 delegates–which is probably about how many delegates Obama will be in the lead by then. Hillary would have to win 100% to 0% to get ahead in pledged delegates, and of course nothing like that will happen. If she’s lucky, she might pick up dozen or two delegates, but no more, and probably less.

Even if there are re-do primaries/caucuses in Florida and Michigan, Hillary will gain quite a bit (maybe explaining why Obama is lukewarm to the idea of do-overs), but she still won’t be able to jump ahead. She and Obama are tied in Michigan, so she’ll have to settle for what Florida will give her. Florida has 210 delegates, and right now Clinton enjoys a 55%-39% lead. Say she wins by 59% to 41%; it will get her a net gain of almost 40 delegates, sure enough a big win–but still not nearly enough to overcome Obama’s lead. (Also consider the mitigating factor that Obama would probably go balls-to-the-wall in Florida, and for good reason; he could cut into that Clinton lead significantly, as he has done before elsewhere.) Worst case, Obama will still be ahead by maybe 80 or 90 pledged delegates, and assuming the Supers that commit between now and then don’t tilt more to one candidate or the other, he’ll still have a lead overall. Hillary would have even worse luck if the do-overs are caucuses and not primaries.

It will, inevitably, come down to the superdelegates. If Florida’s votes are counted, Hillary could be ahead in the popular vote. So it would be another split: will superdelegates give their votes to the winning of the popular vote or the winner of the delegate count?

Again, it would have to come down to getting the numerical advantage. I would have to say that this could be close and will almost certainly come down to the convention–but even under rosy circumstances for Clinton, she’s the less likely to win this in the end. Virtually everything would have to go her way in order to win this, and then she’d have to sway Obama, after all that, to take the pitcher-of-warm-spit side of the ticket. Conceivable, but not likely.

But she can make it a hell of a lot harder for Obama to win in November–and considering the scorched-earth tactics she’s already demonstrating, it’s likely that she will do just that.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags:

Down into the Sewer, Just Like the Republicans

March 8th, 2008 2 comments

Hillary’s campaign is beginning to become way too Republican-esque for my comfort. First we had the negative campaigning when Obama fought a relatively clean and positive race; when that backfired, Hillary started lying about Obama’s record, often right to his face, claiming she had iron-clad evidence when she clearly did not. Then there was the double-dealing “I respect Obama and am honored to be with him” on TV followed by “Shame on you Barack Obama!” on the campaign trail. Then came the ultra-negative attacks leading up to Texas and Ohio, which finally successfully dragged Obama down into the mud that Hillary had been wallowing in for a while. Then there was the opportunistic grab at what was clearly a conservative dirty-tricks tactic with the Canadian NAFTA scam. And then there were the campaign claims (that she and McCain had “crossed that threshold” for being CinC, but Obama had not) that actually benefit McCain and can help him win, especially against Obama–kind of a scorched-earth tactic.

But a recurring theme in the Clinton campaign is to delve into hypocrisy, especially when attacking the Obama campaign for things her campaign has done, often times to a greater degree. She attacked Obama for criticizing her on health care, which she did against Obama far more often. She attacked him on exaggerated claims on mailers, which she often did. She blasted him for plagiarism, but was guilty of far worse passage-lifting than Obama–and then made the straight-faced claim that it was OK for her to do it. She criticized him for the Harry-and-Louise image, but now has published a far, far more questionable image of Obama which desaturates, darkens, and broadens his face, along the lines of the anti-Harold-Ford ads Republicans stewed up. She attacked him on the Canadian NAFTA thing to great effect, when all along the Canadians said Hillary was there first, doing the same thing.

And now, Hillary is bashing Obama, this time for an aide calling Hillary a “monster.” Forget that it was off the record, forget that it was an offhand comment by an aide. Forget that the aide apologized and was fired. Hillary is making huge hay of this, dragging it to the bank again and again. The hypocrisy? Clinton aides make those kinds of comments about Obama all the time. And nothing ever comes of it.

I am OK with the idea of Hillary being a “fighter,” but not a complete and utter disgrace–in other words, a Republican-style fighter. I’ll still vote for her over McCain of she wins the nomination, but it will be with more than a little disdain and disgust. Clinton took what was a grand and glorious Democratic run, and has dragged it into the sewer. In a clean race, Obama wins. I don’t know if I want to pay this high a price for a Democratic win. I’ll pay it, if I am forced to–but I will not like it.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags: