Predictably, when it is a case of standing by their principles or picking a potential winner for the party, many conservatives will go for winning. Schwarzenegger, who is left-leaning on many social issues and displayed a past most conservatives would find absolutely unacceptable (if he were a Democrat, that is), will nevertheless vote for him because no other Republican stands a chance of winning in California.

But that may not be good enough. When this recall process started, conservatives were cackling with glee over how they had a hands-down winner of a candidate while the Democrats seemed to be tripping over themselves. Now, the reverse is true: Schwarzenegger is lagging back in the polls and is offset by two nameworthy Republicans (McClintock and Ueberroth), while Bustamante, with a commanding lead in the polls, is the sole Democratic candidate of note. While Huffington and Camejo may draw votes away from Bustamante, their combined poll numbers are much less than McClintock, who soaked up many of the departing Simon’s votes, and will do more damage to Schwarzenegger’s standing.

To make matters worse for him, Schwarzenegger has, for some reason, decided not to join in the first debate, which will feature Bustamante, McClintock, Ueberroth, Huffington and Camejo; this will make him look weaker, unable to discuss the issues, and like he is somehow out of the main group of candidates. He’ll have to come up with a whopper of an excuse to make Californians accept why he doesn’t want to speak. It certainly doesn’t help that he has already broken his first promise, that he would not accept money from anyone he might have to do business with as California governor; he has already raised more than a million dollars from land developers, high-tech companies and other interests.