North Korea Does GOP Huge Favor
Now that North Korea says it has performed a successful nuclear test, the GOP is undoubtedly giving up a huge sigh of relief. Not only will this push the ever-increasing Foley scandal and the terrible news about Iraq off the front pages, but it might even stoke up enough fear to make voters rush for the cover of the false claim that “conservatives are better on security.” That’s a lie they can push more easily than the myriad lies they’ve flailed about on the Foley scandal.
Of course, the North Korean revelation should not be seen as a plus for Republicans; the Bush administration failed on this point, alternately ignoring and mishandling North Korea to the point that they are now setting off nukes, which could seriously destabilize the region. Despite being a member of the “Axis of Evil™,” the Bush administration’s handling of this country has been abysmal. Bush sapped our military strength, killing thousands of our people and hundreds of thousands of Iraqis in a geopolitical war falsely based on imaginary WMD–all the time while blithely sitting by and watching–in some ways, practically egging on–North Korea developing a nuclear program. While making clearly faked claims of Iraq’s connections to al Qaeda (Hussein and al Qaeda hated each other), they stood by and did nothing as North Korea’s real terrorist ties went unchecked.
In a just and alert world, the Bush administration should be massively criticized for today’s turn of events. Instead, it gets rewarded.
There is a way out in North Korea – but the U.S. plays a weak hand.
Play China, with Japan as bad cop, South Korea as good cop.
The problem with Korea is Korea is a gun pointed at the head of either China or Japan, depending upon who controls it. The only solution to a divided Korea is a united Korea that has to be diplomatically neutral – ie. the Switzerland of the Far East.
Ironically Korea always has one foot in this direction, they want nothing more than to not be dominated by neighboring powers. The put another foot forward in this direction with the election of Mr. Ban to head the UN. This is momentum to build upon.
Give China the choice of watching Japan remilitarize and nuclearize or allow a diplmoatically neutral South Korea to assume administration over 95% of North Korea – give Kim Jung Il a small piece of territory around Pyongyang – a “principality of Pyongyang” with guarantee revenue streams that grow proportionately with growing tax revenue from former North Korea which will grow under competant administrations.
Under this scenario South Korea will no longer be part of the US nuclear umbrella, but become the Switzterland of the far east – and a neutral buffer between Japan and China.
20 years from now a recovered North Korean ‘special administration zone’ will join South Korea, but the principality of Pyongyang will continue, smaller but better funded and hopefully less starving of its own people than North Korea today. South Korea can extend to Pyongyang the carrot of a promise of allowing one of its leaders to some day become a King of all of Korea, in a constitutional monarchy arrangement, if it ever produces a decent heir. This would allow hope and a saving face for the ‘great leader’ of the North. To add to the lure South Korea could even call itself the “kingdome of Korea” and have a vacant throne filled by the elected President, they can even go a step further and make his title regent.
The benefits: China avoids a re-armed Japan, Japan avoids a menace in North Korea, and they both get a neutral Korea as a buffer against the other. Kim Jung-Il loses, but he will gaine some face saving by promising his lineage will someday be monarchs of all of Korea and he’ll gain in the interum by gaining more revenue and more security with less liability. He can even be given his various palaces around North Korea as added territory – and perhaps estates in Chesu the tropical island off the south coast of Korea. The benefit to Korea is stability securing their economic gains and independence they crave and for the Northern Koreans, a promise of prosperity.
As an added, creative twist, I would ask Japan to give one of the small Islands off the Coast of Taiwan to Korea as a token of good will, and to complete the geographic buffer between Japan and China by Korea – and then on half of that island put a nice tropical estate on that Kim Jung Il can add to his portfolio of estates. In short he would be a Prince under a sort of enlarged palace arrest. But given the bargaining chips he’s got, nuclear weaposn and a powerful army, its best to give him some consideration. It would take pressure from China to get him to go along with this – but the alternative for China is destabilization of the region, hurting economic growth and losing their economic mojo to India, while watching prosperous Japan re-arm and nuclearize itself.
Once a solution such as this is defined, then all parties in favor can work in a coordinated fashion towards reaching it and overcoming any one party that objects. That one party that objects will be Kim Jung Il. But a combined coordinated effort will over power him one way or another.
For the U.S. we can withdraw our forces from Korea, and reduce some of our commitments centering on Japan, get out of enormous face losing pickle and stabilize the region, and save China for its god given role of funding our deficits.
Its fanciful, yes, but also do-able, but it takes some imagination. And that makes it beyond the Bush administrations competency.
There’s the pity, it could be helped.