The Numbers for Kerry Keep Getting Better
Discounting the Gallup and Newsweek polls because of their clear Republican bias, we see a race in a statistical dead heat (all results within the margin of error) between Kerry and Bush, with the trend favoring Kerry:
|
Poll
|
Date
|
Bush
|
Kerry
|
|
10/15- 10/17
|
47%
|
47%
|
|
|
10/14- 10/17
|
47%
|
46%
|
|
|
10/14- 10/18
|
47%
|
44%
|
|
|
10/14- 10/15
|
48%
|
48%
|
Furthermore, Kerry now has an edge in the swing states, including one poll that shows him pulling ahead in Florida, and pulling farther ahead in Pennsylvania:
Florida: SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. MoE 4.1%. (10/6 results)Kerry 50 (46)
Bush 49 (51)Pennsylvania: SurveyUSA. 10/15-17. MoE 4.1%. ( 10/6 results)
Kerry 51 (49)
Bush 45 (47)
Note that in both states, Kerry is moving ahead–actually improving by 4% in Florida. These have yet to be reflected at ElectoralVote.com as of this writing, but even without Florida in his column, Kerry still enjoys a lead of 10 electoral votes on that map.
Michigan is already strongly for Kerry, but it is of note that its former Governor William Milliken, a Republican has endorsed Kerry for president, accusing Bush of pandering to the “far right wing.”
Dude! I dont know if you remember me, but I met you in Spain
a couple years ago. Some short people I know are always
asking about you.
pollkatz has FINALLY updated his polls, and he has an interesting discussion of how gallup is ‘putting there
thumbs on the scales’ and tilting there polls.
As far as the current polling deadlock, the wild cards are:
– usually undecideds break at the last minute, for the challenger, still got 6-10% undecided
-record number of newly registered voters: they are considered ‘not likely’ voters, this year my bet is that
the methods for determining how likely they are to vote is not accurate.
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