Boy, either there’s a mistake in the Washington Post, Tucker Carlson has gone mad, or things are much better for Kerry than they look. Rabid conservative Carlson is calling the election for Kerry, 51.5% to 48%, 278 electoral votes to 260. He gives both houses of Congress to the GOP, but his presidential call is still rather surprising. Loonie Ann Coulter, predictably, is calling for an all-out sweep for the Republicans, as much of a landslide as she can push for while not outrageously violating the laws of physics. Other predictions are a mix, but most cede the House to the GOP.

So it’s probably about time I made my own list up. And I do not use the words “made up” without cause: this is not after a careful analysis of the political landscape, and certainly is not the result of a state-by state analysis, especially where congressional races are concerned. I’ve been watching things fairly closely, though, and since I have been repeating the mantra of “turnout, turnout, turnout” for some time now–in short, I’ve been predicting a very high relative Democratic turnout–it’s time to put that into play for my predictions. I’ll probably be overly optimistic, but it’s simply the way I feel. So here goes:

(Map generated by USElectionAtlas.org, colors reversed in Photoshop)

The only two states I have doubts about Kerry winning are Colorado and Ohio; meanwhile, I feel that Nevada and New Mexico could similarly fall into the Kerry category. But I figure that I’ll call it this way based upon the principle that Where the race is within two points, Kerry will take it, especially where minority votes could swing the balance, meaning Ohio and Florida. I think that minority voters are going to have massive turnout partly because of the feelings of disenfranchisement from 2000 and recent reports about suppressing the minority vote this year–and, of course, because Bush has not done well by them over the past four years. But I know that if I had felt that my vote was stolen four years ago, I would, by principle backed by outrage, make it a mission to make damned sure it counted this time.

Other than that, pure galvanization on the left, in addition to the youth vote, will help push Kerry over the top. Already, predictions of extremely high voter turnout are coming out, based upon early voting in many states. In 2000, 51% of eligible voters cast their votes; I’m predicting that it will be up over 60% this election–though i could actually be too low in that prediction–and that Democrats will represent an even larger margin than in 2000, when Democrats outvoted Republicans 39% to 35%; this year, I’m guessing it will be closer to 42% vs. 36% (more polarized). The caveat being that Republicans seem to be getting more and more energized as of late, but I believe when people on the edge actually get to the polls, more moderate-conservative hearts will simply not have it in them to go with Bush again, considering the pains of the last four years.

So that leaves Congress. This is a tough one. I would count on heavy Democratic turnout to sway races that way, but there is, on the other hand, Republican voters who may switch for Kerry but vote Republican for Congress as a counterbalance, as well as Republican seat theft in the House, especially from Texas (and I believe in Colorado as well). So here are the numbers I’m calling:

I would like to call more House races than that, and will hope for a Democratic takeover of both House and Senate, but the House takeover is just a bit too far away, even for me. Still, I think we’ll hold an edge in the Senate, and be close enough in the House to make some real differences. I think Kerry will be centrist enough that he will be able to get the moderates to come with him enough of the time, and more importantly, if the Republicans try the same crap with him that they did with Clinton, it won’t fly even half as well,l and they’ll look even more the dividers for it.

So there it is. Everyone coming to visit, please use the comments to make your own predictions. Remember, you don’t need to put your email address, just your name or a handle would be great (though you can put full email and URL info if you want, of course).