What if the recent tape released by bin Laden is indeed a message to sleeper cells inside the U.S., and their mission is to suicide-bomb voting places throughout the day? That would not be nearly as hard to pull off as a 9/11–all it would require is some home-made explosives and a triggering device, almost ridiculously easy to make–and yet the impact could be, in many ways, even more jarring and far-reaching than 9/11 was.

First of all, there would be no way to stop such attacks. Explosives could be hidden under clothing. All a terrorist would have to do would be to walk into a polling place, shout “Allahu Akbar!” and detonate. One of these would be bad enough, but I would expect that there would be many, at least a dozen, all over the United States. Whether they would be simultaneous or spread throughout the day is questionable–simultaneous would make it impossible to stop subsequent attacks, but would make everyone feel like “it’s over,” while attacks throughout the day would allow security to be enforced, but that security might not mean anything and the idea that the attacks were ongoing would frighten people away from the polls.

The effect would be devastating: people would stop going to the polls. People would be afraid to go out and vote, meaning that turnout would dwindle to a slow trickle–and the results of the election, if it is carried to its end that night, will be absolutely in question. And it could go both ways: low turnout from attacks could favor Republicans in addition to bringing to mind security issues (people would be frightened for their lives as they voted, Bush could not ask for more than that); on the other hand, a lot of advance voting has been done, and much of that is pro-Kerry in the swing states, so a low election-day turnout could hand the election to Kerry (bin Laden may not have considered early voting in planning such an attack).

Then there is the question of whether or not the election would go forward. Condi Rice sent up a trial balloon some months back about postponing the election day in the case of a terrorist attack; if the attack is aimed at polling places and is devastating enough, such a possibility could materialize–as could a constitutional crisis.

In short, it would be an unholy mess.

Let’s hope it does not happen.