The number of killed, thankfully are not as high as thought–22 people were killed, not 24, 15 of the soldiers, not 19. But still, it was one of the deadliest attacks on U.S. soldiers so far, and sets a chilling new tone on the insurgency. This is not just a few organized cells that can be wiped out. This is an indication of how long a struggle this will be.

The bomber was not some obvious fanatic; it had to be someone who could have gotten clearance to be on the base, someone who could walk past several security points without being detected. It was likely an Iraqi who worked on the base but was a member of the insurgency or some radical group–or was somehow manipulated by them. Either way, it means that those who want to kill the troops now have a new way of doing so, and unfortunately, there’s not much we can do about it. Yes, security can be tightened, but there will be averse effects there as well; the Iraqis who are needed to work on the bases will not be trusted, and will be searched probably everywhere now, creating resentment among them. And still some bombers will find a way through, perhaps with more willing volunteers as Iraqi resentment rises and things become generally worse throughout the country. The ‘success’ of this bombing will likely also encourage other groups to take their own shots. And out troops understand the security problems:

“Iraqis here on this base are supposed to be escorted, but you see them walking around by themselves,” said Lance Cpl. Chris Roell, a member of a K-9 unit deployed to Iraq. “They’ve got better digital cameras than we do.

“We’ve got Iraqis trying to make us feel better, saying this is the holiday season, cheer up, and then they’re leaving base and giving their buddies grid coordinates.”

But this bombing is also symbolic of a larger, longer-term theme to the war, bringing it ever-closer to the inevitable comparisons to the Vietnam War. In case the subtlety was lost on anyone, Vietnam was a war of insurgency, and so is this. Mosul was supposed to be a success story for the U.S., but it is now just as much an example of how that claim of success is premature. At the very, very best, it will be a long, grating haul for our people, knowing they can be blown up at any time, being deathly suspicious of any native Iraqis. This is not a problem to be solved, it is rather an inexorable fixture of the landscape.

We still don’t have an exit plan, in case you haven’t noticed. That alone should show you something. The Iraqi people don’t want us there, and we don’t want to be there. Most Americans–and likely most Iraqis–believe this whole thing is a mistake. We are waiting for an endgame which is not defined and far from promised. The question now is not whether we will win the war, but rather, how can we possibly ‘win’ this war? The war that President Bush has decided to fight is the hardest, and the most prone to failure. Or perhaps he didn’t choose it–but it is less than satisfying to know that we got sucked into another Vietnam by a president who just simply didn’t have a clue.