I should not be surprised at this, really, but it does continue to be frustrating. Reports are going all around the web over one company’s data that show’s Apple Computer’s OS market share has been flat recently. One representative excerpt:

…data gathered by Net Applications shows that the Mac OS had 4.35 per cent of the world’s operating system share last December. Now it only has 4.33 per cent.

This is being reported as very bad news for Apple, indicating that the expected revolution has failed. Other articles, such as this or this, are ultimately based on an article in TechWeb. While the articles do mention how the data was collected–a firm called Net Applications monitoring web site accesses–none of them point out the fact that MacWorld reported:

…it must be borne in mind that the Net Applications data is based on the company’s PC-only web monitoring software which checks for what platform users are on when they visit a small collection of compliant websites.

In other words, the data is a non-scientific survey of people visiting web sites designed to work best on PCs. While the survey does measure changes over time, it is hardly an accurate measure of such; were it a submission of data for a scientific organization, it would likely be rejected out of hand. Hell, if I were using an Intel Mac running OS X but visited the site using IE on XP under Parallels, it would measure as an XP visit. Not that I expect the figures are much changed by that, but it is one example of how the data could easily be skewed aside from the obvious fact that the measurements are PC-centric in the first place.

Not to mention that this analysis of Mac shares staying flat from December to August flies in the face of Mac sales increasing 12% from summer 2005 to summer 2006, and Mac sales rising steadily over the past several years. (Coolest Gadgets also has a good analysis on the report.) Also not to mention that we’re heading into what could be a big rise for Apple as Vista and Leopard are coming out, and Vista ain’t looking too good. And on top of all that, there is the fact that people still haven’t caught on to the fact that (a) Macs are now as cheap as, if not cheaper than, equivalent PCs, and (b) Macs can run Windows as well as the Mac OS. As awareness of these points increase, it’s inevitable that Mac shares will grow–but by how much is the question. Will Apple’s sales explode, or will it just be a slightly more popular niche, but still a niche?

In any case, one should treat this latest Apple-doomsayer story like the other recent flurries, such as the bogus virus threats, more virus threats, and yet more virus threats (recycled). Not to mention the infamous WaPo hack-the-Mac video in which a hacker appeared to be able to take control of a Mac remotely, hacking into the system through a vulnerability. Later, it turned out that the Mac’s built-in wireless system was quite secure, and the hacker had invaded the system by exploiting a weakness in a third-party wireless card that was not even needed on the Mac, as all Macs that can accept the wireless card have built-in WiFi.

This is pretty much the gold standard nowadays for negative reporting on the Mac: accept any negative claim without checking its veracity.