Gay Marriage–Will It Work for the GOP Again?
Running out of options and heading for the doghouse but fast, the GOP was heartened by a New Jersey Supreme Court judgment the other day which said that while gay couples are not entitled to marriages, they are entitled to equal benefits. The GOP was not heartened by the denial of marriage, they were filled with joy that a high court gave any union rights at all to gay couples–that gives the GOP ammunition to scare the evangelicals with. While the ruling was not in favor of gay marriage, it was close enough for a desperate Republican Party to grab it and run with it. Gay marriage having worked so well to their advantage in the past, they’re hoping it will work the same way again.
There may be a problem with that, however. In light of David Kuo’s new book which uncovered the contempt that Republicans have for the religious right, tied together with the fact that while gay marriage is trotted out every election year to scare people, after the election the GOP abandons the issue (having gay marriage even be possible is too valuable for them to actually outlaw it), evangelical voters might actually be catching on, finally, to the scam.
And, as it has been pointed out, gay marriage has been legal in Massachusetts for two years now, and there has been no sign of heterosexuals abandoning the ceremony because gays can marry. The stats for marriage (PDF file) in Massachusetts in 2003-2005 tell the story. In total, 36,225 couples were married in 2003, 41,549 in 2004, and 39,074 in 2005. In 2004, 6200 gay and lesbian couples got married as soon as it was legalized there; 1900 gay and lesbian couples married there in 2005. Subtract those numbers from the totals, and you have:
2003: 36,225 heterosexual marriages
2004: 35,349 heterosexual marriages
2005: 37,174 heterosexual marriages
Average out the numbers for 2004 and 2005, and it equals 2003 almost exactly (36,261.5). So far, the stats bear out the notion that gay marriage has zero effect on heterosexual marriage. None whatsoever. You might argue that the effects could be long term–but you would have no evidence to back you up. The only data out there so far points in the opposite direction.
Not that Republicans ever had any problem with using a good scare tactic that was completely unsubstantiated by fact.
Systematic desensitization is on the side of the Democrats on this one. Someone can only jump out a closet and yell “boo” so many times before you grow so accustomed to it that it no longer scares you. I believe the gay marriage issue is the sort of thing that, the more it’s talked about, the less worked up about it even religious nuts are going to be. It’s not that they start to approve of it any more than they ever do but they start to consider it less important compared to other issues.
Right now in the U.S., I think everyone has got to be more worried about the erosion of lifestyle and the general lack of long-term career and salary, health care and retirement security. Some rural areas, particularly in areas traditionally supported by a certain type of manufacturing, are starting to look more second world than first world. Ohio, in particular, is suffering right now. No matter how religious you are, you’re going to worry less about gays and more about yourself if your job is going to vanish because of outsourcing or overseas production.