Senator Tim Johnson of South Dakota has suffered a stroke some kind of head malady [Update: since I wrote this last night (but could not post due to lack of Ethernet access), it has been revealed that Johnson’s malady seems to have been a stroke caused by a congenital vascular formation; his prognosis is still unclear], and the situation has some pretty serious implications. Johnson is in surgery, and that means the condition is serious and could result in death. Johnson is a Democrat with 2 years left on a 6-year term, and the governor of the state is a Republican who would have the power to select any replacement he wants.

If Johnson lives, even incapacitated and unable to serve, the Senate Historian’s office said that the governor could not automatically replace him; he could only be replaced if he dies or resigns.

But here’s the thing: if Johnson died or became so incapacitated that he felt it necessary for him to resign for someone to represent the state, would the Republican governor appoint a Republican against the wishes of the Senator and the voters and in so doing wrest control of the Senate to the Republican Party?

Some say that there will be a lot of pressure for Governor Rounds to do so, and that would be the natural thing to expect. There is talk from Republicans about “that’s not how we want to take control of the Senate,” but after what they did with Paul Wellstone’s seat in neighboring Minnesota, I take that to be self-serving, posturing BS. I don’t know Gov. Rounds, maybe he’s an upstanding guy who’d be fair.

However, I do not in the least expect that to be the case. We’re talking about the Republican Party here, an organization that has displayed every propensity for stealing power they did not earn. The governor recall in California, the impeachment of Bill Clinton, the stealing of the 2000 elections, the non-census gerrymandering across the nation, the rigging of voting machines, disenfranchising voters with bogus “felons” lists, lying to voters about election times, places, and even party affiliations, jamming phone lines, the list goes on and on and on. This is a party without the barest shred of shame when it comes to grabbing power, and they will apparently break any law to do so.

This event will also rouse the conspiracy theorists; should Johnson die, he will be the third Democratic senator to do so in the third consecutive election where control of the Senate was a close thing. Mel Carnahan in 2000 and Paul Wellstone in 2002–both died in plane crashes shortly before the elections. In 2000, the Senate was split 50-50, and that with the dead Senate candidate beating John Ashcroft; had it not been for Carnahan’s widow taking over, the Republicans would have controlled 51-49. In 2002, Carnahan’s seat became open in a special election due to the special appointment, and was won by a Republican; furthermore, Wellstone’s death allowed his Republican opponent to win (Wellstone had been seen as safe for retaining the seat). These two turnovers gave the Republicans a 51-49 majority. In 2004, when the Republicans had a safe shot at maintaining control of the Senate, no Democratic senators died. But this year, when the Republicans expected to maintain Senate control but unexpectedly lost, a Democratic Senator falls just weeks after the surprise results.

Already the tinfoil hats are coming out, asking how long the CIA has been able to induce strokes. But in this case, the tinfoil hats can almost be excused–while it is almost certainly all a coincidence [Update: made more likely from the congenital nature of Johnson’s condition], it is one hell of a major, whopping coincidence.