New Hampshire
Obama’s big win in Iowa was invigorating. Not only did he pull way out ahead of where the polls said he’d land, he did it in a powerful and ultimately hopeful way: by bringing out the voters who usually don’t vote. Young people were the big surprise; usually, they don’t vote as much as other groups, but for Obama, they came out more than the traditional groups. Voter turnout for Democrats was almost double of what it was in 2004, and was far higher than it was for Republicans. Here are the Iowa results portrayed not by percentages for each party, but in percentages overall, and it shows something scary for the Republican Party:
Percentage of total vote
24.5% Obama
20.5% Edwards
19.8% Clinton
11.4% Huckabee (R)
I am beginning to think more and more that not only can Obama win, but he could win big.
Of course, I’m getting ahead of myself; there are still a few contests left before a president is chosen. And Obama’s next big challenge is New Hampshire, where Hillary still leads, but the trends show Obama is gaining. And let’s not forget that before Iowa voted, Clinton and Obama were neck and neck; it was the unexpected turnout that vaulted Obama ahead, and the same could happen in New Hampshire. Right now, Hillary has something like a 6-8% lead over Obama. Even a close tie in that state would be a definite win for Obama. If he comes out with more votes than Hillary, Obama would have even more momentum going into South Carolina–he might even by that time be called the front-runner.
I am visiting in Arizona right now, and I had C-span on right now. The big ta-doo is New Hampshire. But the thing that really struck me was the callers they got in, many were Republicans throwing in their lot with Obama. That was truly shocking.
I am an Edwards guy. To me Obama is all charisma right now. None of the candidates came out with health care plans until Edwards did. Obama was giving great speeches but the details are important. Also I figured Edwards to have bigger coat tails than Obama, especially in swing states. Because policies won’t become a reality unless the Dems take the senate in really high numbers.
Having said all of that, I think the Obama phenomina is great. Lots of people are getting involved like never before. A good salesman is someone who can sell ice to Eskimos. Obama is perhaps the greatest natural talent, perhaps ever, in our political history. Despite being liberal, democrat, and black, he may still be able to inspire southerners to vote Democratic. As I said, he’s already bringing Republicans in New Hampshire over to his side. So there’s a chance he can bring over some swing states – maybe even southern swing states.
All of this causes me to hope that some Lee Harvey out there doesn’t take a shot at him. This country has a bad track record over the last half century regarding charismatic liberals.
The big bonus is that Obama can truly put the civil war behind us. What a great thing that would be. He’ll also help redeem us in the eyes of the world – both, with our traditional allies and with the Muslim world.