The Surge
Good news for Obama: a new USA Today/Gallup poll has Obama out in front with a 13-point lead in New Hampshire, 41% to 28%, with Edwards trailing at 19%. Meanwhile, a new CNN/WMUR poll put Obama ahead by 10 points. That makes four polls with Obama ahead by double-digits.
The polls seem to suffer from dual-personality disorder (c’mon, admit it, “schizophrenic” works better there, despite the inaccuracy of the medical term), as just as many recent polls put Clinton and Obama within just a few points. Here’s how TPM lists it:
ARG: Obama +11
Gallup: Obama +13
CNN/UNH: Obama +10
Rasmussen: Obama +12
Suffolk: Clinton +2
Mason-Dixon: Obama +2
Zogby: Clinton +1
Research 2000: Obama +1
Also, one has to remember that these polls take their samples according to historically representative voting groups, which means that Obama’s lead might even be understated, as it was in the Iowa polls. Not to set too high a bar, but this could be turning into a blowout.
A few more recent polls from New Hampshire show a similar range:
CNN: Obama +9
Suffolk: Obama +1
Fox: Obama +4
Not surprisingly, Obama is surging in South Carolina:
SurveyUSA: Obama +20
Rasmussen: Obama +12
But the biggest surprise is nationally:
Gallup: Obama/Clinton even
Rasmussen: Clinton +4
While that might not look impressive for Obama out of context, it’s huge news: Obama is catching up everywhere, not just in the few early-primary states. And given that Clinton had a 15-point-plus lead over Obama nationally just a week ago, these numbers are rather breathtaking. Iowa started a trend, and now it’s exploding. Just a few days ago, people were warning that even if Obama won in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Hillary was still strong elsewhere and Obama would have a tough time beating her. Now that seems to be reversing; one influential web opinionator, Kos, now wonders how Hillary can possibly recover.
Usually I would say that it’s still too early to start making predictions, but with the primaries stacked like they are, this whole thing could be over in a short matter of weeks, and with Obama trending like this, it is indeed hard to see how this could all change. Not that it couldn’t, but it would have to take something pretty dramatic to do it.
Obama is for real. People don’t/didn’t take him seriously probably because of his name and its awful connotation with “Bin Laden”. Atleast in some of the internet jokes floating around.
When you hear the man talk and read his stuff, he does have a lot of intelligence to go with charisma. It’s not the Hillary I gotta get it my way ball biter smarts. He is a mediater and he gets things down without losing his focus and direction.
I like him.
Well, I’m certainly glad to see things trending in Obama’s favor. The good thing is that we should have a fairly good idea pretty soon about how accurate these polls are.
Anyone care to elaborate on Obama and Hillary’s plans for health care? It’s a give that when Dems take office taxes will be higher for the middle class (those who own their house and have money to give to their children when they pass away).
Upon first reading of Obama’s health agenda, it does not strike me as a true national health insurance. Instead, it aims to create an option to compete but not stop private health insurance companies from offering plans to U.S. citizens. As vaguely as Obama worded it, it could have been any plan. I was hoping for something akin to Japan’s NHI or European policies.
But then with all the junk food in country, no plans that work would be affordable. No?