A lot of people have been talking about the Spanish elections, and I realized it has been days since I have mentioned it. I am not in constant contact with family in Spain, though my father is, so I have not heard how this has unraveled locally in Spain. Many people, my aunt included, thought that it was an ETA bombing, largely due to the timing (just before an election) but also because of reports that the explosive used was similar to the ETA’s.

Anti-war postings like this, as well as banners and signs, were everywhere in Spain last April

For a few days, that was all that really came out, with the Spanish government not saying much about what they found, despite growing suspicions abroad and in Spain that it may have been al Qaeda–particularly, the target (working people as opposed to politicians), the scale (200 killed in one day, as opposed to 800 killed by ETA over 30 years), and the more sophisticated coordination of the attack. Add to that the fact that the ETA denied responsibility for the attacks, something they have never done before.

The conservatives had an interest in finding ETA to be the villains–it would bolster their showing in the elections, as they have been known to be the tough ones when it concerns the Basque separatists. In contrast, an al Qaeda attack would hurt them, as 90% of the population in Spain has been solidly against the Iraq war, and an al Qaeda attack would further the public animosity because it would appear that the Aznar government brought on the terrorist attacks and was unable to prevent them.

Even so, it is quite possible that the al Qaeda attacks would not have hurt the government so much–but what really hurt the conservatives is that they withheld information of arrests of al Qaeda suspects, and tried to use the specter of the ETA to their advantage in the last few days before the election. And that the people of Spain were furious over. The conservatives effectively shot themselves in the foot. The Socialists won with unexpected strength, not quite clinching the majority, but with enough seats to create a coalition of their own, to control the government–and now, they are reporting that they will pull the 1,300 Spanish troops out of Iraq as soon as possible. My aunt, though still traumatized over the attacks, is ecstatic about the political developments, having been furious with the Spanish involvement in the war.

It will be interesting to see how things play out over the next several weeks. The “Coalition of the Willing,” as it stands, may have one less member very soon. It may have been a victory for al Qaeda, if they were indeed the perps, but it was Aznar’s people who made it into one for them. It also opens questions about what might happen in the United States this Fall–our trains are no better protected, as well as a lot of other infrastructure, and Bush has spent very little domestically to protect against terrorism. The question really is, does al Qaeda want to hurt Bush in the election, or help him? A very relevant question, depending on how you see things.