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Bush Reluctantly Agrees to Three Debates, Maybe

September 20th, 2004

The news came in earlier today, the Bush team has caved. They wanted to skip one of the debates, the one to be held in town-hall style. The stated reason: they did not want Bush to be exposed to a question-and-answer session with undecided voters over concerns that members of the audience could be partisan (read: someone who might ask Bush a critical question). This is, of course, completely in line with recent Bush strategy, where “town hall” appearances are actually limited to strong Bush supporters, who either throw softballs or simply get up to thank and/or praise the president. Doonesbury has been doing a series of strips on the issue (see previous post). That debate is still being negotiated; even though the Bush side has pretty much agreed to all three, they obviously still want to get rid of the possibility that Bush may be directly challenged in public.

Nevertheless, we must be very cautious not to make the same mistake we made four years ago: underestimating Bush. When not prepped or scripted, he can be bumbling and inarticulate–but when he is prepared, he can be quite effective. Bush himself said it fairly well: “They misunderestimated me.” This was encouraged by his own people, knowing that painting Bush as the underdog could only help him in the end. It came to the point where everyone assumed that Bush would make such a fool of himself that simply getting through the debates without peeing himself would be considered a victory. We can’t let that happen again. Bush proved himself more than effective enough the first time around; if someone tries to say that Kerry will probably do better, remind them of Bush’s debates with Gore. Kerry has the disadvantage of appearing stiff and more than too articulate to the point of being boring; Bush has the “down-home” patter down, and if sufficiently prepped, could in theory do the same job on Kerry that he did with Gore.

And Kerry must be careful not to pull a Gore, that is, to appear awkward and manipulative in the debates. Remember Gore’s audible sighs? Remember that weird step forward he took while Bush was speaking. It’s little stuff like that which can throw your campaign down the toilet. Kerry has to be sure to do more than just be concise, he has to make sure he is natural up there, and not sound canned, not sound too practiced.

Still, if the popular “misunderestimation” of Bush can be stopped, and if Kerry can bring on the warmth and succinct eloquence, then this could be a big break for Kerry. Before now, Kerry has been held beneath the surface of media coverage, and has never been seen side by side with Bush. These debates could put him squarely at the same level as Bush in the public eye, something Kerry has not been able to do until now. Once that happens, things could go Kerry’s way–again, if Bush is not underestimated and if Kerry can polish his style.

The debates are scheduled for September 30 (Florida); October 8 (Missouri); and October 13 (Arizona). Cheney and Edwards will debate on October 5 in Ohio. All of the debates will last 90 minutes.

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  1. Ron
    September 21st, 2004 at 11:48 | #1

    A great article that outlines the strengths and weaknesses of each of the candidates is this one from James Fallows in the July/August issue of the Atlantic. Get it while you can, too. It’s interestingly the only article that I know of that’s still freely accessible since they made their whole site for-pay.

    When George Meets John
    Presidential debates always put more importance on projecting character than on being right. George W. Bush and John Kerry can both boast of never having lost a debate, though the two candidates rely on strikingly dissimilar sets of skills. A viewer’s guide to this fall’s version of “asymmetric warfare”

    Sorry if I repeat any info you posted, but here’s the boilerplate I’ve been sending out to people… Note the Japan dates & times, too.

    All debates start at 9:00 p.m. ET and last 90 minutes.

    1st Presidential Debate
    Thursday, September 30, 2004
    (Japan time = Friday, October 1, 10 a.m.)
    Location: University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida
    Topic: Foreign policy
    Moderator: Jim Lehrer, anchor and executive editor of “The NewsHour” on PBS

    Vice Presidential Debate
    Tuesday, October 5
    (Japan time = Wednesday, October 6, 10 a.m.)
    Location: Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio
    Moderator: Gwen Ifill, senior correspondent of “The NewsHour” and moderator of PBS’s “Washington Week”

    2nd Presidential Debate
    Friday, October 8
    (Japan time = Saturday, October 9, 10 a.m.)
    Location: Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
    Topic: Town-hall format open to all issues (will take questions from undecided voters)
    Moderator: Charles Gibson, co-anchor of ABC’s “Good Morning America”

    3rd Presidential Debate
    Wednesday, October 13
    (Japan time = Thursday, October 14, 10 a.m.)
    Location: Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona
    Topic: Domestic issues
    Moderator: Bob Schieffer, CBS News chief Washington correspondent and moderator of “Face the Nation”

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