Polls Show Last-Minute Surge for Kerry
If you’ve been paying attention, you’ll know that the outlier CNN/Gallup poll went from Bush +5 to a 49-49 tie between Bush and Kerry, primarily by using the 9-1 ration for the challenger formula, which is usually how it works. But that’s not the only good polling news for Kerry.
A newly released Marist poll of likely voters has Kerry ahead, 49% to 48%, the poll including Sunday calls only.
FOX News (PDF file), of all sources, has Kerry up by two, with half their calls from Sunday.
TIPP, which had been calling the race for Bush by 5 points, changed to Bush by 2 points–a 3-point gain for Kerry–when they added Sunday calls.
CBS/NYT, similarly, had Bush over Kerry by three, but by adding Sunday callers, Kerry gained two points to cut the Bush lead to one point.
The only major poll that didn’t go Kerry’s way was Zogby, which switched from a tie to a one-point lead for Bush.
In short, almost all the polls show a surge for Kerry over the weekend in one for or another, this after a slow turn for Kerry over the past several days. The trend is your friend, or in this case, Kerry’s.
And Florida is staying firmly in Kerry’s column, by the way, while Kerry’s electoral lead in the state polls consolidates to 298 votes to Bush 231 as Ohio leans towards Kerry. Freepers, meanwhile, after dropping their beloved Gallup poll and embracing Pew, which had numbers they like, are now similarly eschewing FOX for calling it for Kerry–having Kerry 5 points ahead in Florida, too–and after searching, found that the little-known Quinnipiac University polls were far more accurate because they show a big lead for Bush in Florida.
