A Man With Two Clocks
There’s an old saying: a man with one clock always knows what time it is; a man with two clocks never knows what time it is.
Well, in the race for Pennsylvania, we’ve got a good half-dozen clocks, easy. Here are seven polls that have come out in the past week or so:
Rasmussen: Clinton +5
SurveyUSA: Clinton +18
ARG: Tied
Quinnipac: Clinton +6
InsiderAdvantage: Clinton +3
Muhlenberg: Clinton +10
PPP: Obama +2
So, either Pennsylvanians are shifting massively on a near-daily basis, or some of these polls are figuring things wrong–unless the margin of error spans a full 20%. Worse, any poll relative to its own precursor might say things are moving in opposite directions; SurveyUSA has Clinton surging ahead 6 points over her last poll, while PPP shows Obama surging by 18 points. Rassmussen has virtually unchanged numbers over the same time span, whereas Quinnipac shows Hillary gaining 3 points, and ARG has Obama gaining 12 points.
In short, these numbers are all over the place. One can only guess that each pollster is making different adjustments to the data, trying to factor in race, gender, age, the new population of recently-registered voters, etc., and coming to different conclusions about who will come out and in what strength. If the state were an open primary, things would probably look even more crazy, I’m guessing.
When the numbers are like that, it’s a sign that Clinton is doing better. The other anecdotal evidence is this one from Bob Herbert at the NYTimes: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/opinion/08herbert.html
Herbert, in the past seems to lean towards Obama, but his travel through Pennsylvania seemed to have shown him an obvious bias towards Clinton.
I think this is understandable, and maybe obvious as to why.
Part of it is the racial characterization of the race. But another part of it is Clinton’s decidedly more progressive policy stances. But that is all miniscule. The big thing is that a lot of these folks are on the front tip of what looks like it could be a long and dark depression. I’ve been through eastern Pennsylvania a few times – and spent a month or two working in Phillipsburg, New Jersey, which is essentially the easternmost community of an metropolitan area that has Allentown at it’s center, and Bethlehem (as in Bethlehem Steel) as its economic engine, way back in 1998. I went back through this area in Summer of 2006.
Even during the high point of the Clinton prosperity, these cities seem immensely sad and depressing. There’s no getting around it. They were created for pulling coal from the ground and turning Iron into Steel. Those industries have suffered and have shed employment like maple trees shed leaves in October. Quite honestly, I don’t know what keeps Scranton and Allentown going.
But if you are from those areas, that seem as if they are in depression during the best of times, it’s like being a canary in a coal mine. And all the economic data and events occurring now spell an extremely depressing future for these areas.
At this point they don’t want miracles, they just want to get back to the sensible 1990s. To them, they don’t want advances, they want a retreat back to the 1990s. The just want to go back to the future, before Bush took office. And in such a mind frame, the best way to get back to the Clinton prosperity is to put a Clinton back in the White House. And if I were one of the Clinton’s that’s how I would frame things: “all the prosperity with none of the scandals of the last Clinton era.” Clinton ought to be selling herself as a ‘bridge back to the 20th century’.
I have to admit, I would saw my right arm off to get those times to come back.
For these reasons, I think Pennsylvania will go with Clinton, and there’s little that Obama can do about it. I do think he will need these people in the general, so he should take the time and campaign hard there so that these folks can get to know him better now, so they’ll be more comfortable voting for him come November. From all I can tell he seems to be doing just that. I agree with Obama, it will be a victory for him if he gets within 10% of Clinton. That might be possible. People just need to get to know him and so as they do, he’ll pick up more support. He should still get the nomination. And when he does, he should get Pennsylvania to vote for him.
We are going into incredibly tough times, that are a direct result of the Republican ascendancy. The only humane way forward is one led by the Democratic party. I don’t think there’s any conceivable way that McCain can win the election, but God help us all if he does.