I don’t think Kindle is it. Nor is it this one, or this one.

But they’re getting there.

So far, the ebook readers haven’t broken the magical barrier where everyone will have to get one. Maybe Steve Jobs will come out with one when it’s time. Maybe not.

Here’s my projection on what’s needed. First, color would be nice. Not a deal breaker if it’s black-and-white; contrast is more important than color. But color would help. Contrast is a deal-breaker, though; if you don’t see sheer whites and dark blacks, it won’t sell. Nobody likes the washed-out look. That’s why they don’t sell paperbacks with the text in light gray, or even charcoal.

Resolution is more important. Pixel jaggies won’t cut it. Font smoothing won’t cut it. It has to look like paper, to a certain extent. That means high-quality text. That means more than 72 dots per inch. Readers are now up to 160 dpi, not bad. Higher would be nice.

The size of the screen could be bigger too. Right now the displays are about eight inches, or roughly the size of a paperback–but that’s just the screen. The bevel makes it bigger. More screen, less bevel.

Next, the book feel would be greatly enhanced by a fold-out screen, like a real book; two screens hinged to oppose each other, just like a real book. Not one screen and a solid cover.

Next, it has to be a touch screen. Get rid of the buttons on the border, make the bevel as thin as possible. Turn the pages by swiping across a screen. Natural interface. Multi-touch would be nice.

Finally, the price point. This can’t be a luxury item. Right now, decent readers cost $300 to $400. Too much. Price point has to be less than half that, $150 or less. It can’t be something that you’re constantly worried might get broken, that you would have to convince yourself to replace if it did.

We’re not there yet. Ebook readers have not yet arrived. They will. They’re a great idea. Imagine being a college student, and having an ebook reader like the one I just described being your one and only book to shlep. Your books all in one place, all with a text search feature, connected to the Internet so you can browse your favorite web sites and online databases. Heck, while we’re at it, one of the two screens becomes a touchscreen keyboard, and you can use it to type.

For the home reader, all your books in one place, backed up on a home computer or hard disk, DRM flexible enough so you don’t notice it. For the businessman, email on the fly, maybe even a built-in camera and a cell-network connection for audio or video conferencing.

Not all of those bells and whistles I just mentioned need to be there. WiFi and email, a natural yes; color, camera, and cell connection, no. The extras can be added for a premium.

Sounds like I am asking for way too much for too low a price, right? But imagine describing the iPhone to someone in 1997–16 GB storage, 3“ color touch screen at 163 dpi with 480×320 resolution, WiFi and Bluetooth, web browsing, email, cell phone, 2 megapixel digital camera, digital music and video player, games, apps, with an on-board version of a UNIX-based OS, all in a small, solid, stylish package, for $500. Hell, a 1 megapixel digital camera alone would have cost more than half that much in ’97, and most of the rest would have sounded like a pipe dream. People paid $500 for a 10 GB iPod in 2001, with a crappy, tiny LCD screen, no other functionality than a music player. Even that would have been more than anyone expected in ’97.

Ebook readers will probably hover in the background for a few years yet, until someone meets most or all of the feature sets I described above. Say, a dual-8” folding multi-touch high-contrast 200-dpi-plus color screen, with WiFi and Internet/email and decent battery life, for about $150. I would definitely use that to read all my books. Maybe even $200, But the price can’t go too high, or else people won’t use it the same way they use books.

But get most of those features for the price of a PSP or DS Lite, and you’ll have broken the barrier to massive sales. Many of us would probably buy it for a higher price with only half those features, but not the mass market.