So, what does this look like to you? Apple comes out with two hit devices within a few months. Apple posts record profits and sales. Throngs line up to buy new Apple products. Analysts–again–hike up Apple’s stock price target, this time to $375, a full $100 above current value. Apple has never been stronger, and is just getting stronger and stronger still.

So what have we seen the past few days? Apple’s stock taking steep, sudden, unexplained dives. Most notably right this moment, having fallen about $7 or nearly 2.5% in less than half an hour.

Can anyone say “stock price manipulation”? Nothing but criminally dishonest traders beating down the price of an undervalued stock, knowing that it will inevitably get back up again and gain them tons of profits by betting against it and then for it.

Where the hell is the SEC when crap like this is going on? Or is this completely legal and/or just overlooked?

There is a new ad campaign out in Japan for Winston cigarettes. You get so used to the cigarette vending machines being everywhere that you actually forget they’re there–but nowadays they stand out like a sore thumb. Their ad themes are usually pretty offensive–young, fit, healthy people doing active things, while smoking, as if smoking were part of a physically fit and adventurous lifestyle.

The thing is, in Japan, ads often have a way of being “off” if you’re not Japanese. It’s hard to quantify, but many campaigns will simply look ridiculous to you. Sometimes it’s language–like Coca Cola’s “I Feel Coke” campaign some years ago, or Japan Railways’ “Traing” (“train” and “-ing” combined to denote active train use) ad series. But a lot of the time, it’s just the images or the main thrust of the ad that make you wonder, “What the hell are they thinking?” And then, “Must be a Japanese thing.”

But the latest Winston ad campaign, pasted all over town, beyond the obvious offensive elements, is at least somewhat mystifyingly hilarious. It features a bodybuilder striking a pose while looking dreamily upwards, with a lit cigarette in his mouth. Check it out:

That’s not the only thing, though: in some ads, you get the whole body shot:

Now, looking at these ads, what’s the first thing that comes to mind–after the disconnect between bodybuilding and smoking? I know I’m not the only one, I’ve talked to other foreigners and everyone got the same, very strong impression. If the makeup and dreamy expression and the way he’s holding the cigarette don’t do the job, then the pants put it way over the top.

Now, I thought, maybe it looks different to Japanese eyes; maybe he just looks like a tough guy. And maybe so–one group of students I asked only said that it looked like Bruce Willis, but nothing more than that. But another group said, “No, he looks gay.”

So I am left wondering: was it intentional? Is the fact that he’s a white guy part of it somehow? Or was it simply older managers setting up the ad and not seeing it? I really do not know. Any ideas?

SoftBank called. They won’t have the iPhone ready for me on the release day–nor would they promise it any time soon. The waiting begins….

A contrast from my prior experience–I got an iPhone 3G the very first day they came out. Of course, the iPhone is way more popular here now.

Apple just sold 3 million iPads in 80 days. It is estimated that, even on the lowest-priced model, Apple gets a bit over $200 in profit. If that’s the case, Apple just made over $600 million in less than three months on one product.

Not too shabby.

In the next few days, the iPhone 4 is coming out, and Apple makes maybe $300 a pop for each one of those. And Apple seems to estimate that for the first quarter, it will move an average of 3 million of those per month. Reviews are now out, and all rave, calling the iPhone 4 the best smartphone on the market (Mossberg • Pogue • USAToday • Engadget).

Hey, here’s a blast from the past:

“The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant. […] Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won’t make a long-term mark on the industry.”

–Matthew Lynn, Bloomberg, Jan 13, 2007

He wasn’t the only one. Ah, it brings back the memories from the days when people were predicting Apple’s imminent demise every other week, or so it seemed. Here’s a prognostication from May 2003–this after the iPod was a success and the Mac market share was on the rise:

“Is Apple doomed to fail? If I had to bet on it I would say they absolutely are. No one at Apple has the guts to correct the mistakes of Steve Jobs. Apple is a toy for Steve, and a way to massage his ego. Right now no PC company makes hardware that looks as good as Macs, and no OS looks as good as OS X. That can, and will, change very soon. The PC world has gotten the message, and they’ll soon drive the final nail into the Apple coffin.”

–John Manzione, MacNet, May 08, 2003

Gee whiz, kinda sounds like what they’re saying about iPads now, doesn’t it? It’s cool, but just wait, all those other manufacturers are coming out with much better stuff real soon!

And from just a few days later:

“Many close observers of the legendary Silicon Valley company believe shareholders shouldn’t be selling the stock. They should be buying it, they say, in order to press the 48-year-old Jobs to split Apple into two separate companies built around its hardware and software lines of businesses, or get new management that will. ‘Given what their valuation currently is, I think this is something they will eventually have to do,’ argues Rob Enderle, a research fellow at Giga, a research unit of Santa Clara, Calif.-based Forrester Research Inc. ‘They have to dig themselves out of the going-out-of-business cycle they are currently in.’”

–Joshua Jaffe , TheDeal.com, May 12, 2003

Needless to say, Apple didn’t split into pieces.

On May 9, 2003, Apple’s stock price was at $9, up from about $7 a week before. But let’s say you bought it at $9 at that time, and invested $10,000. Taking into account the stock split in 2005, you’d have over $600,000 in Apple stock right now.

Me, I waited way too long. I started thinking about it back in ’03, but chickened out, and have seen what I got only triple in value. Coulda shoulda woulda.