Gore

June 17th, 2008 1 comment

I am watching him live endorsing Obama. Why couldn’t he have spoken like this and had this bearing in 2000? He would have wiped the floor with Bush. So much lost….

Addendum: look at that huge crowd; it looks like the convention already. McCain will have to respond to this, and I do not envy him–any response he makes will look pathetic in comparison. Who will he get to introduce him who will compare? (George “Macaca” Allen maybe?) How could he possibly scare up so big and so enthusiastic a crowd? Will he even be smart enough not to use a pale green backdrop this time, or not to smile and giggle like an idiot? Maybe McCain should just lay low after this.

Second Addenda: Ah. McCain had to cancel a fundraiser at the home of a Texas misogynist who told women to “lie back and enjoy” rape, and so instead had a dry, cold press conference where he announced that he would open the floodgates on offshore oil drilling. And I was wondering how he’d out-do his green-screen follow up to the last Obama Big Speech. Ouch.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags: by

Bizarro World

June 17th, 2008 5 comments

Dan Piraro’s blog has become one of my daily visits on the web, and today’s entry identifies a vital issue: the ability of Americans to vote against their own interests, and make insane choices with open eyes:

One thing I’m realistic about is the upcoming election. In a reasonable world, Obama would win in a record-breaking landslide: Bush is the least popular president in nearly 100 years, the economy is in the toilet and a finger is pressing on the flush handle, our reputation worldwide is in the gutter, gas will be $5/gallon by November, according to legal experts, our constitution is in crisis, McCain’s policies are the same as Bush’s or MORE in the direction that nailed us into our current coffin. It’s a no-brainer.

A part of me thinks Obama will win in spite of the combination of stupid, blind patriotism and racism that will account for 90% of the votes against him. But the realist in me is bracing for another close election that the Republicans can steal at the local level. I’m not an alarmist, but that would be national suicide.

If McCain wins, it will change this country for a very long time. Forget what disasters will befall our economy, our troops, our international reputation – the Supreme Court will become a fascist juggernaut for decades to come, and nothing short of an armed uprising will be able to stop them.

In my opinion (and probably Piraro’s as well), that trend began in 2000, and intensified in 2004 when the nation inexplicably said, “give me some more of that!” A lot of this goes deep back in time, and is part of human psyche; but you can’t help feeling that this alternate-reality feel-good-denial self-destructive inclination became a visible tumor writhing under the skin of society, growing to monstrous proportions, probably spurred on by the carcinogen of fear injected on 9/11, and that it is stretching the dermis of our nation so taut that it threatens to burst and… well, I could get into some pretty icky imagery here, but I haven’t even had breakfast yet.

Back to the more analytical side: Look at the economic charts before 2000, and then see where Bush took us after then. Reagan-Bush in the 80’s and early 90’s were a conservative trend that by all rights–and the true and actual votes of the 2000 election–should have continued to swing back after Clinton’s term. I know people love to ridicule Al Gore, and some roll their eyes whenever a compliment is paid to him, but despite all the no-difference talk in 2000, a look back makes it crystal clear that Gore was hands-down the far superior choice. He would have continued the trend Clinton started, handling the economic downturn of 2000 far more reasonably. He either would have prevented 9/11 with the Clinton counter-terrorism policies that the Bush administration abandoned, or he would have acted a thousand times more reasonably, focusing on bin Laden and building a new international alliance. He would have made real progress on environmental issues and perhaps we’d be well on our way to using alternative fuels and escaping our fossil-fuels dependency, and so forth. But most importantly to us back here in grim reality, he would not have gutted the Constitution, he would not have gutted the economy, he would not have made us an international pariah, he would not have started the quagmire in Iraq–in short, he would not have been the single most reprehensible “leader” in our history, and our nation would not be hurtling towards the precipice at quite so alarming a rate of speed. And yet here we are, with millions of Americans again saying, “give me four more years of that!”

I can only wonder at the proclivity of Americans to be so utterly foolish as to even consider any of this, but to me, the choice was just as crystal clear back in 2000. You had a man who was intelligent, who saw the value of the Internet back before anyone else and acted upon it, without whose support the Internet would have died stillborn, who was boldly making his cause an unpopular message of environmental prudence, who looked and talked a bit funny but was still so clearly the better candidate. And he was running against a cocky, juvenile, frat-boy-demeanor failed oilman not too long weaned from drug addiction, the first presidential candidate with a criminal record, for Christ’s sake, a smarmy, stupid, silver-spoon dunce who couldn’t speak straight, who lied so smugly he actually smirked, who attached himself to shadowy people, who used sickeningly slimy tactics against opponents in his own party, and who basely pandered to the fear and greed of people rather than to their better natures. It’s not like we couldn’t see this back in 2000, or in 2004.

McCain is not nearly as bad personally as Bush, giving him some social camouflage, but there is so much there that echoes Bush. McCain was not a draft-dodger or a drug addict, nor does he have a criminal record, nor is he as stupid or altogether pathetic as Bush is or was. But the same lack of character is there, and the same set of policies and abuses is rather brashly being presented to the American people as if they were real, viable, or even constructive courses of action for our nation to take.

There are several reasons to vote for McCain, but as Piraro pointed out, almost all of them are base: fear, greed, hatred, distrust, blind patriotism and blind partisanship.

I truly believe that this is a test for the United States of America. We are being given one last chance to make the right choice. If we fail the test, the United States of America that has existed up until this time will only accelerate in its disintegration, its transformation into something different and far less and without the heart or soul that made the country great. What would remain would be a pale, pretending shadow. If you’re thinking, “oh, they were saying stuff like that back in 2000 and 2004,” then take a look around you–we were right.

There’s no guarantee that Obama can stem the profuse bleeding and bring the nation back to health, nor that the nation won’t turn back toward self-destruction soon after he leaves office. But the choice right now is so clear it is blinding: vote for McCain and you vote for the ruin of America. Vote for Obama, and we have a good chance of making it. If that makes me sound partisan, then too bad; partisanship is not a sin if it is open-eyed and a result of attention to the truth. Nobody criticizes a policeman for being a partisan for public safety; no one questions a doctor for being a partisan of health. The question here is not why I support Obama, the question is, why doesn’t everyone.

Categories: Election 2008, Political Ranting Tags: by

Good News (Kind of, Maybe) from an Unknown Source

June 17th, 2008 Comments off

A Japan Telecom blog reports that the iPhone will cost ¥20,000 ~ ¥30,000 here in Japan with it’s released in four weeks’ time, but no official price has been announced. This was supposedly said by Masayoshi Son, head of SoftBank–but the blog cites no source, gives no exact quotes, and the news does not appear anywhere else. The entry says:

Softbank Mobile Corp. CEO Masoyoshi SON said on June 13 that an iPhone handset itself will effectively cost ¥20,000-¥30,000 when its user selects the installment and discount plan.

The cost in the U.S. is $199 (about ¥21,000) for the 8GB model or $299 (about ¥32,000) for the 16GB model.

The company will unveil the program(s) for the basic monthly fee by the end of this month.

Take that for what it’s worth. Even if accurate, the “installment and discount plan” could make the pricing anywhere from cheap to prohibitively expensive. Best-case scenario: SoftBank will offer the price as a subsidy with their cheap “White Plan” (about $10/mo. basic charge, some calls free) and a reasonable data plan add-on. That’s wishful thinking, however; they might demand a more expensive contract and the data plan that tops out at ¥10,000 per month.

So now we know little more than we did a few minutes ago. Isn’t this fun?

Categories: Mac News Tags: by

Obama vs. McCain: Communications and Technology Policy

June 16th, 2008 4 comments

Here is a video of a debate between surrogates for the Obama and McCain campaigns on Communications and Technology Policy. Former FCC chairs Reed Hundt (speaking for the Obama campaign) and Michael Powell (McCain campaign) face off on issues of Network Neutrality, Media Ownership, and other pressing issues of the information age.

What struck me most about this debate was the stark difference between the two. One of them showed himself to be sharp, clear, well-spoken and thoughtful of evidence, support, and meaning; the other dealt in platitudes about witnessing marvels, vague and theoretical to the point of obfuscation, long on stories and short on substance, dismissive of specifics, condescending, and a sop to big business. It is not even a little challenge to see these differences or figure out who is dealing what. Hundt, quite frankly, swept the floor with Powell. Which was not quite fair, considering what each was given by his candidate to deal with. But you get that feeling the Hundt probably would have done it anyway, evidence notwithstanding.

Here’s something to do: while watching this video, ask yourself–which of these would you rather have as a boss?

Update: The thought just occurred to me: it seems that Hundt came armed with specific policy points, factual evidence, examples, concrete arguments–while Powell came prepared with little more than flowery language, anecdotes, and general college-level Econ theories dressed up with technobabble buzzwords, expecting that to be the level of the debate. In short, It was Hundt bringing a gun to Powell’s knife fight.

Wow

June 16th, 2008 1 comment

This is not just charisma. This is anything, anything but an empty suit. This is one small corner of what the man is like. This is character, real character–not a PR job, not a political hack claiming to have character, this is not crafted, not speechwritten, not false or phony in any way. If you have not heard this person make a speech, then listen to this speech; if you think “oh, he’s only about words,” then listen to these words. Listen:

I defy you to find one person who is so utterly cynical that they cannot listen to that full twenty-four minutes, and see the promise of this speaker, dismiss what he says as “only words,” or claim that the only thing here is charisma and nothing else. If you can find that person, then have sympathy for them because there may be little or nothing at all that can bring them back to hope.

This was a speech. This is what sets the man apart from that pale imitation of a president who is running on the other side. This is not golf gear, this is not four more years, this is not a painfully sallow false smile against a sickly green background.

This is the real deal here.

Dadobamadavidbanksgetty

Categories: Election 2008 Tags: by

I Hate Internet Explorer 6 With a Vengeance That Can Only Be Expressed in Arabic

June 16th, 2008 5 comments

I truly do. IE6 is without much doubt the single crappiest browser in existence, and yet–thanks to Microsoft forcing it on everyone for years–it is used by a majority of people surfing the web. Thanks again to Microsoft for not making it easy for people using XP to upgrade to IE7 (there is no automatic prompt, and they demand to be able to scan your computer for pirated software), most of those users are not changing.

Which means that if you want to design a web page, especially for a business (as I am trying to do), you can’t afford to show an ugly page to a majority of visitors–so you are royally screwed by IE6, forced to work far harder and to accept lower standards for the end product. I wanted to make a beautiful set of pages for my school’s site, so I taught myself CSS and really worked up a very nice design. It looks fantastic in Firefox and Safari on Mac and Windows, and even IE7 likes the way it looks. But IE6 blows it all to hell, making every single design element an excruciating torture to find painfully twisted workarounds, which lead to scatterings of new problems in their wake. I should have seen this coming–IE6 has torpedoed several other of my attempts to build nice web sites, including an attempt earlier this year.

The result is that I am spending 90% of my time working around bugs in that piece of crap IE6. I swear, I am just about ready to buy a plane ticket to Redmond so I can personally strangle Bill Gates.

That said, there are workarounds. One of the many problems in IE6 is that it does not recognize pseudo-elements. If you recall from my tutorial on CSS, you can create new HTML commands–called “elements”–and so define your own styles in a way that can be easily expressed. One that I wanted to use was small caps. The coding is easy: scaps { font-variant: small-caps }. Insert that into your styles and the use of a “scaps” tag will get you small caps. Except in IE6, where you can’t define elements like that. You can re-define elements that already exist, but you can’t create new ones.

That presents a problem for my small caps idea: you either have to add small caps to an existing style (in which case you can’t have the small caps by themselves) or you have to create a class for small caps, in which case it is again necessary to piggyback on another existing style. It seemed impossible to create just small caps without having it go along with something else, so I came up with another idea: hijack an existing style I don’t use. I chose the “u” tag, because it’s bad style to use underlines on a web page–people will think they’re links. So I did this: u { text-decoration: none; font-variant: small-caps; }. In essence, that tells the “underline” tag to subtract underlining and to add small caps–I just turned “u” into a “small caps” command. I could probably do the same with “s” and “strike.”

A bigger problem with IE6 was the lack of support for “position: fixed,” which allows you to set the position for any element–a table, a paragraph, an image–so that it appears exactly where you want it on a page, as defined by distance from top, left, bottom or right by universal units of length. IE6 won’t recognize that, however, and that was a key element in having one part of my site render correctly. This time the fix was not easy, so I couldn’t do it myself. Looking on the web, I found many people who offered various fixes; some of them led to jerky scrolling, but one actually did the trick pretty well. You can see the solution on that page; it’s a bit hard to describe, except to say that it fights fire with fire, using a different IE6 bug to fix the “position: fixed;” bug. Clever. It still leaves me with scroll bar problems I’d rather do without, but you can’t have everything.

Back to work…

Categories: BlogTech Tags: by

Now-McCain: That Nasty Then-McCain Is a Dirty Rotten Liar!

June 16th, 2008 Comments off

In the age of persistent video and YouTube, one can have so much fun with someone who speaks out of both sides of his mouth! Here seen happening both figuratively and literally:

Publish this wherever you can… there should be lots more like this to come.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags: by

I Hate Stupid Over-reactions

June 15th, 2008 5 comments

Due to last week’s knifing rampage, “authorities” are suspending Akihabara’s “open street” Sunday. In Japan, many heavily-visited shopping areas close the street to motor vehicle traffic and allow pedestrians to spill into and take over the entire street in order to avoid congestion and create a bit more of an open market atmosphere. Akihabara is not the only place where this happens; in Tokyo, the Ginza and I believe Shinjuku Boulevard also open up on Sundays. In fact, I can see a permanent “open street” from my balcony–Sunshine Street in Ikebukuro. Akihabara has been opening their main drag for visitors for 35 years.

Closing the street is not being done for safety reasons; after all, concentrating people on the sidewalks would, if anything, make it easier to kill more people. Perhaps in the sense of Akihabara Open Street being a famous event so it draws attackers, closing the street might seem useful–until you realize that an attacker looking for a famous area to attack would simply move on to one of the other open streets (which I believe are still open), and lacking those, would move on to other kinds of venues. At best, it would only displace the attack elsewhere. Not to mention that in 35 years, the open street hasn’t exactly been a murder magnet or anything.

No, this seems to be nothing more than an official attempt to make it look like the authorities are doing something. You know, like making everybody take off their shoes at airports. In Japan, this is a common reaction to a tragedy with no easy fix. I recall a while back, after the terror attack on a Spanish railway, some train lines in Japan reacted by removing trash cans from train platforms. Yeah, that really put a dent in terrorism. I bet scores of terrorists threw up their hands in surrender once they noticed the trash cans were gone.

In this case, beefing up and publicizing psychiatric counseling services would probably be a far better and more effective reaction, but would be harder, more expensive, and less sexy. So instead, they’re closing down the open street and beefing up police presence. Unfortunately, that’s another over-reaction: the police are now not only patrolling in gangs, but they are openly wielding nightsticks–not holstered, but always in hand–while stopping people seemingly at random and questioning them.

That ought to do wonders for business in Akihabara–I don’t want to go near the place already.

So we get these stupid over-reactions instead of doing what’s sensible–better psychiatric care (not a cure-all, but it would help) and a more sensible police presence all the time, not just after the fact. They ought to do something other than just make it seem like something is being done.

Categories: Focus on Japan 2008 Tags: by

Definitive Irony: Why I’m Voting Republican

June 15th, 2008 2 comments

You just can’t get more ironic–nor more bitingly convincing of the moral bankruptcy of Republican practice–than this:

Ouch.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags: by

McCain: Hurtling Toward the Edge

June 14th, 2008 3 comments

McCain is at it again. His propensity for lying in only thinly veiled disguise is pretty stunning. A week or so ago, he said that our troop levels are at pre-surge levels, then he denied he was wrong, trying to pretend he never said “pre-surge” in a way that was pretty blatant. Today, he’s lying even more outright–listen:

So, essentially, he’s saying that he’s not for privatization, those damned nasty liberul Democrat Party meanies will twist his words and claim he’s for privatization, but he’s not. Instead, all he wants to do is allow for people to put money that would otherwise go to Social Security payments and instead place them in personal accounts. In other words, privatization. (Oh, no! I just twisted John McCain’s words! I’m going to hell for sure now!)

Josh Marshall points out how Republicans, similar to the way they blamed their own “nuclear option” terminology on Democrats, backed off from “privatization, saying the that Democrat Party™ was responsible for it all along. They switched to ”private accounts,“ and when that didn’t work, ”personal accounts,“ the language McCain just used in aggressively denying he was for privatization. It’s kind of like watching an intelligent-design proponent vigorously deny he’s a creationist when all the time he’s thumping on a bible.

Undoubtedly, we are taking him out of context yet again, which is now McCain’s knee-jerk response to any public mention of his numerous lies. So, for context, here is the word from John McCain himself:

So, what do we have just recently? McCain claiming that Obama lacks knowledge and experience about Iraq, while claiming that our troops are at pre-surge levels, and that all violence in Iraq will magically disappear soon after he takes office. (This built upon repeated McCain gaffes and blunders about Iraq, from his famous ”marketplace stroll“ fantasy to his inability to discern Shiite from Sunni.)

McCain claiming that Obama will raise Americans’ taxes by ”thousands of dollars,“ that ”Americans of every background would see their taxes rise,“ claiming that McCain is the middle-class tax-cutter when in fact, Obama would cut middle-class taxes much more than McCain, and would only raise taxes on people in the upper class while giving small businesses and middle-class workers big cuts; McCain, meanwhile, gives the lion’s share of his tax cuts to the rich.

According to McCain, Obama is dirty because one of his Veep Vetters simply worked for Fannie Mae, while McCain’s own Veep Vetter was a paid lobbyist for Fannie Mae.

And that’s just in the past week or so. Keep going back and it’s practically anunending string of stuff like this–reversals, lies, and double-standards.

My question is, how long will it take for the media to recover from the softening effects of the Kool-aid-drinking McCain barbecues and start reporting even half the obvious truth about McCain, showing him up to be a liar, a flip-flopper, and a hypocrite on levels that makes even George W. Bush pale?

Five minutes after that happens–if it ever does–expect the right-wing PR machine to go into high gear, claiming that the (a) Liberal Media™ has (b) gone back on the May-I-Get-You-A-Pillow-Senator-Obama Bandwagon and (c) is unfairly demonizing John McCain for no good reason.

Big One, Even 400 km Away

June 14th, 2008 4 comments

About half an hour ago, Sachi and I woke up to the building swaying: an earthquake, and a relatively sizable one. The building swayed strongly enough for us to notice pretty easily in bed, and the doors made creaking sounds as they swayed (probably what woke us more than the movement). The swaying here lasted for several minutes. The epicenter was 240 miles (400 km) distant.

My usual quake sites report a 6.7 on the Richter, but the TV is saying it was a 7.0; in Japanese quake scale terms, it was a “strong 6,” which is pretty huge. No major news stories on Google News yet.
No tidal wave concerns–it was way inland. Probably not too much fun in Iwate or Akita, in norther Honshu where the quake was centered–but the epicenter looks fairly sparsely populated. Still, probably a few small villages just got wiped out.

Categories: Focus on Japan 2008 Tags: by

The Tax Plans: Obama Helps the Poor and Middle Class, McCain Favors the Super-Wealthy (Surprise!)

June 13th, 2008 3 comments

An analysis of both candidates’ tax plans has been released (PDF) from the Tax Policy Center, a respected source of analysis on such matters. And guess what: Obama’s plan is far, far better, unless your surname is Hilton or Gates. But if you’re an average working schmoe, then you’re definitely going to want to vote for Obama.

On the plus side for McCain, he cuts taxes for everybody. On McCain’s bad side, he gives the biggest cuts the super-rich, with only a paltry handout to anyone making less that $38,000 a year. Even up to incomes of $66,000, you’re looking at a $320 cut–not very good, considering that recent hikes in gas prices probably have already eaten up much more than just that. But millionaires can look forward to saving more than a quarter million per year–sweet, if you’re rich.

Obama, on the other hand, gives everyone with incomes up to about a quarter million dollars a year a cut of up to almost $3000, with the cuts spread much more liberally at the lower end than McCain’s. While McCain would give low-income earners an insulting $19, Obama makes a huge difference in their lives with a $567 tax cut. All the way up to earners of $112K per year, Obama gives more back to the earner than McCain. And even for the upper middle class, Obama’s plan is not bad–with a tax hike of a mere $12 for those making up to $600,000 a year, I think it’s reasonable to say that you’ll have to really have tons of money before Obama starts taking anything away from you. And while Obama really socks it to Bill Gates, I think that people making eight figures or more can well afford to pay their way after the cash cow days under Bush.

Neither Obama’s nor McCain’s tax plans look hopeful in terms of balancing the budget anytime soon, but the report makes one thing clear: while neither will balance the budget, McCain’s tax cuts will cost about a trillion dollars more over the next ten years. McCain claims that he’ll offset this by spending cuts, but what he means is that he’ll increase spending for the military while slashing stuff like Medicare. McCain may claim that he’ll get it by cutting pork, but there simply isn’t even close to that much pork to be found.

Here’s the total breakdown of the tax plans by income level:


Income Obama’s Plan McCain’s Plan
$0 ~ $19K cut $567 cut $19
$19K ~ $38K cut $892 cut $113
$38K ~ $66K cut $1,042 cut $319
$66K ~ $112K cut $1,290 cut $1,009
$112 ~ $161K cut $2,204 cut $2,614
$161K ~ $227K cut $2,789 cut $4,380
$227K ~ $603K raise $12 cut $7,871
$603K ~ $2.9M raise $115,974 cut $45,361
$2.9M ~ Bill Gates raise $701,885 cut $269,364


What’s more significant here is that Obama’s plan is progressive, while McCain’s is regressive–in other words, Obama gives a higher-percent break to lower-income earners, while McCain gives the biggest percent-of-income breaks to the wealthy.


Income Obama’s Plan McCain’s Plan
$0 ~ $19K -5.3% -0.2%
$19K ~ $38K -3.2% -0.4%
$38K ~ $66K -2.0% -0.6%
$66K ~ $112K -1.5% -1.2%
$112 ~ $161K -1.6% -1.9%
$161K ~ $227K -1.5% -2.3%
$227K ~ $603K 0% -2.3%
$603K ~ $2.9M +6.1% -2.4%
$2.9M ~ Bill Gates +7.9% -3.0%

As you can see, Obama’s plan helps those who need help the most, while McCain continues Bush’s policy of giving the most help to the people who need it the least, and leaving people on the bottom rung with crumbs at best.

And here’s a bonus: McCain has been going around for a while now claiming that Obama is “going to raise your taxes by thousands of dollars per year,” and has even recently raised the Cold-War-era canard of “tax and spend.”

One can only assume that McCain was addressing an audience of millionaires, because that’s the only group which will have their taxes raised by “thousands of dollars” under Obama’s plan.

Categories: Economics, Election 2008 Tags: by

McCain Store Fun

June 12th, 2008 Comments off

A few days back I posted on the McCain Store and Golf Gear, but apparently there is a lot more going on there, so much so that Obama supporters are watching the site as a new entertainment venue.

First, there was the Golf Gear, which, as I mentioned before, came across as white and elitist. But then McCain actually started allowing people to post reviews of the gear, Amazon.com-style. You can guess what happened:

Mcgolf22

They finally wised up and shut down comments.

But now, there’s even more fun at the site: McCain has branched out his sports line and is selling nautical gear. Presumably because nothing helps steer you away from the elitist white guy image better than yachting.

But it gets funnier: his modestly-priced $200 nautical lapel pin shows three nautical flags, which, in order, mean:

Mcnlp

“On Fire, Keep Clear; Engines Going Astern; I Am Stopped.”

I will leave it to you to make the obvious connections.

Categories: Election 2008, The Lighter Side Tags: by

McCain and the Iraq Statements

June 12th, 2008 Comments off

Recently, McCain said that when U.S. troops come back from Iraq is “not too important.” He was instantly criticized by Democrats; in response, he complained that the criticism ignores the context.

And you know what? McCain is right: his statements were taken out of context.

The catch, for McCain, is that if you look closely enough at the context, you’ll see an even deeper problem. The context is that McCain’s statements about Iraq (including way back to his “hundred years” statement) are based upon the premise that Iraq will very soon become a peaceful place where our soldiers never get attacked or killed. That’s what McCain is talking about when he says that our having soldiers and bases in Iraq will be just like our having soldiers and bases in Japan, Germany, and Korea.

And within that context, you can see why McCain’s latest comment makes sense: if things are peaceful in Iraq, then having troops there will be just another ordinary overseas assignment–whether a soldier gets posted to Baghdad or Yokota simply depends on that soldier’s preference for weather and the occasional venture into trying out the local cuisine.

This, however, is where McCain’s context breaks down: there is no evidence whatsoever that Iraq will become anywhere near so peaceful in the near future. It could happen, but that is so unlikely as to approach absurdity. Yes, last year’s cease fire by the Mahdi Army (and not the Surge™) has allowed for lower casualty rates among our soldiers, which is more than I would have thought possible–few predicted that al Sadr would do such a thing–but even with Iraq’s most important militia leader playing nice, even with things going as well as we can temporarily hope for, we’re still seeing an American soldier killed every day on average. Hoping for violence to completely disappear is almost literally a pipe dream.

But McCain is hoping to rewrite the conventional wisdom by acting as if a peaceful Iraq in the very near future is a foregone conclusion–that’s a big part of what his “2013” speech was about. He’s hoping to take the illusion of a successful Surge™ and ride it to the assumption that we’re winning in Iraq and will soon see it become just another U.S. ally where IEDs, marketplace bombers, and mortar attacks simply do not happen.

And this is where McCain could get into trouble: the pitch just isn’t selling. Most Americans do not make the same assumptions that McCain is making–which is why his “not too important” and “hundred years” comments play so badly.

And McCain has seen this trouble before. If you recall, he dropped into obscurity late last year, and everyone (myself included) figured he was toast. But people seem to have forgotten why that happened. McCain’s campaign plummeted after he made his statement that Iraq was safe enough to walk around its streets completely unarmed and unprotected–and then“proved” his point by visiting Iraq and taking a “stroll” through a marketplace–wearing a bulletproof vest, surrounded by a hundred soldiers, and covered by three Blackhawk helicopters and two Apache gunships. Soon afterward, he became something of a laughingstock.

Iraq is doing better now than it was then, which may have contributed to McCain’s comeback, but it is not doing so well that we can consider it another Japan or Germany. As I see it, McCain’s press to change assumptions about Iraq can have only a few possible outcomes, and none of them are very good for McCain. At best, he’ll get many or most Republican voters to see Iraq as maybe becoming manageable enough to keep our troops there. However, I think it is much more likely that things will continue as they are now: people will not accept McCain’s assumptions, and his statements about Iraq will continue to disconnect with what Americans perceive.

So, when McCain complains that his statements are being taken out of context, he is correct, but it is more his fault than anyone else’s–they’re taken out of context because McCain’s context is so patently absurd that no one will accept it.

SoftBank, Day 2

June 11th, 2008 3 comments

BiphnThe SoftBank store I pass on the way to work had iPhone posters up today, announcing the July 11 release date–and pretty much nothing else. You can go inside and put in a reservation for a phone, but I have a feeling that is mostly for SoftBank to (a) gauge interest in the new product, and (b) get new phone numbers and email addresses for their mailing lists. You give your name, mobile number, email address, and what model you want.

But the guy behind the counter will not promise a thing–not even that the application will reserve an early purchase for you. That’s the hope, he’ll tell you, but there’s no guarantee. No price yet, but the guy seemed to think that it was unlikely that the iPhone would be subsidized, and thought that a 50,000 yen (about $500) price was more likely than not. He wouldn’t even say if the usual member plans would apply to the iPhone. It seems that they are trained to say that nothing is certain, assume the worst, and maybe people could be pleasantly surprised later on.

News reports say that the price point will be the same in Japan as it is overseas; this source says they will start at ¥20,000 yen, this one says that “prices in Japan have yet to be decided but they will be comparable to those overseas, according to sources close to the matter.” If this is true, then I’m getting the 16GB model and Sachi will probably get the 8GB one. But I doubt it’ll be ¥20,000; hardware almost never costs less in Japan than in the U.S. In fact, Apple hardware in Japan usually has a 5~15% surcharge over U.S. prices. $199 is ¥21,450 now, so I suspect that ¥23,500 (8GB) and ¥35,000 (16GB) is not too much to expect at the low end.

Th guy at the Softbank store did say that about seventy people had signed the forms for an iPhone at that location since they put the posters up that morning.

Categories: Focus on Japan 2008, Mac News Tags: by

McCain: Just How Desperate Can I Look?

June 11th, 2008 1 comment

McCain is trying to scramble to see how he can avoid looking bad after a very bad week. He scalded Obama for not knowing anything about Iraq, then proceeded to demonstrate that he himself knew nothing about Iraq, then defended his lack of knowledge. Then there was yet another lobbyist/campaign advisor in embroiled in scandal (former Senator Phil Gramm, McCain campaign co-chair and chief economic advisor, lobbyist and executive for UBS). McCain came out against a popular GI education bill on baseless grounds. And McCain made a landmark speech that made him look like a complete idiot. Even Fox News couldn’t bring themselves to like him–and when the media’s penchant for giving McCain favorable news coverage can’t quite stop him from looking bad, you know it’s not a good time in McSamesville.

So maybe it’s not surprising that Obama is now taking off in the polls against McCain–jumping to a 6-point lead in the Gallup poll after staying tied for a while. Rasmussen has Obama jumping forward to an 8-point lead. That, and Obama has been hitting home with the theme that McCain is running for a third Bush term. This is based, of course, upon the fact that McCain has tied himself closely to Bush, voting with Bush about 90% of the time, having the same policies on taxes, Iraq, the economy, social security, abortion, immigration, etc. etc.

McCain’s riposte? “Senator Obama says that I’m running for a Bush’s third terms [sic]. It seems to me he’s running for Jimmy Carter’s second.”

And, how is that? Well, umm… there’s really no justification for it, though McCain lamely argues that it’s somehow all about “tax and spend.” Wow! How original! I’ve never heard that before! Jennifer Rubin puts it well:

Now it doesn’t “work” of course in the same way that McCain’s association with George W. Bush does. Carter is not the incumbent president and Obama is not running on a platform to continue any of the Carter policies. But that is not really required for McCain’s purposes.

Exactly. Obama is making a carefully crafted, well-evidenced, and well-earned criticism of virtually McCain’s whole policy platform. All McCain has in return is a punch line–pretty much the only thing working for him this week.

But McCain shouldn’t worry; it shouldn’t be long now before the press finds another non-issue to bash Obama with so they can get back to completely ignoring McCain’s non-stop tour of lies, scandals, and ethics violations.

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Now That’s Keeping a Secret Really Well

June 10th, 2008 1 comment

Well, here’s a hoot: I just called the SoftBank support line, and it seems I knew more about it than the operator did–she told me that the iPhone would be available “later this year,” and insisted that their web page had no press release. Even after I walked her through the process for reloading the web page, she claimed that she still did not see the updated press release. I had to read off the URL for the specific press release, and only then did she see it.

Talk about keeping it super-secret!

I can only guess that they didn’t anticipate immediate calls. I made my call only about ten minutes after they opened for the day–but still, I am very surprised that they were not already getting lots of calls on this.

Update: only a few minutes later, the gal at SoftBank called back. She was very nice, but she didn’t have any details beyond the press release (and not even that until I told her about it!). No pricing or anything else yet. Next call: the Apple Store. Not yet, though, as I have to get ready and go to work. And not that I expect them to have any more info on pricing….

Categories: Focus on Japan 2008, Mac News Tags: by

iPhone Japan: July 11 from SoftBank

June 10th, 2008 1 comment

I guess you didn’t want my business after all, DoCoMo–and you may very well lose my wife’s business, too. She mentioned a while back that she wanted to be on the same service as me.

But the big news is the release date; despite what the people at the SoftBank store told me last week, the iPhone will be released in Japan on July 11, much sooner than I expected–exactly the same time as everywhere else, in fact. No information on pricing, but you can bet that I’ll be calling SoftBank soon about that.

Disappointments: it’s still only 8GB and 16GB, and the camera is still only 2 megapixels. What’s with that, Apple? Leaving room for an upgrade a few months later in case sales sag?

Not disappointed: no video camera on the front. Sure, it would have been fun, but far from necessary. The features of MobileMe look a lot more appealing. I’ll probably be finally breaking down and getting that.

Categories: Focus on Japan 2008, Mac News Tags: by

Live Blogging of the Live Blogging Audio Stream

June 10th, 2008 11 comments

Well, that’s what I’m reduced to. I’ve done it before, posting my reactions to others’ reactions. But since Apple stopped streaming video of their keynotes, this is the only game in town. Why they don’t stream, I don’t know–if they were worried about selling out, they shouldn’t have–it sold out. One would think that baseball rules apply–blackouts lifted in the case of sellout crowds. But apparently not. Maybe Apple just figured they didn’t need to.

So instead, the Mac blogs have taken over the load, doing live blogging via WiFi (cellular connections?) from the event–and their pages are heavily trafficked. MacRumors, Engadget, Gizmondo, and many others. iPhone Alley is streaming audio–but it sounds like the adults on a Peanuts TV special. But just this moment, it just got a whole lot better. Jobs’ voice is very clear… although he’s mostly just talking about how well things are going.

Al Gore is there…

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Jobs presented some enterprise stuff, Exchange, businesses and so forth saying “we can use the iPhone” in so many different ways. Push email/contacts/calendar, etc. Now they’re talking about how great the SDK (software developer’s kit, which allows developers to create software for the iPhone) is. We could probably go on for a while with only stuff that people already know or that only developers would be interested in.

Wwdc 08 02

It’s easy to build apps for the iPhone… blah blah blah. Okay, I know it’s important for developers. But it’s 2:30 am here in Japan–get to the good stuff!

Some app demos being shown. A $10 game called Super Monkey Ball with 100 levels… eBay auctions… Loopt, keeping track of friends with iPhones with location-aware software–seeing photos they’ve taken, setting up lunch meetings–free software… TypePad! Photo-blogging over the iPhone, also free! (I’m getting that–erm, unless it’s not WordPress-compatible… I’m sure that WordPress will have something compatible)… Associated Press, all kinds of ways to access news… Pangea games (okay, enough demos, thank you)… “Band,” software that allows you to play musical instruments virtually on the iPhone, recording your musical doodling… Medical anatomical learning…

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I really like the fact that several of these apps will be free; I was under the impression that everything would cost something. This could really be good.

As usual, Apple stock is doing weird stuff–down $10 despite seeing a lot of good stuff. Maybe they’re going down until they see something really tasty. However, one thing the endless demos do is show you the breadth and depth of all the apps available, and if you look at it carefully, you can see the potential of all this.

Okay, finally the developers have finished. So what next? One feature request asked for: alerts for an app that isn’t even running. A better system than Windows mobile: Push Notification for all apps, not just Enterprise. IP connection from server allows the background software to run remotely, saving the battery life of your phone. Really, a lot of great tools here. Apple stick has just regained $5, so it’s only $5 down.

New features: contact search–about time. iWork and MS Office document viewing support. Scientific Calculator by turning the phone sideways… parental controls… Many languages, including two forms of entry for Japanese! And Chinese. Drawing kanji with your fingers… switching between languages on the fly. Forget the plastic keys!

Wwdc 08 05

Another thing: Ad hoc distribution: certify up to 100 iPhones, run and sync all those iPhones.

Mobile Me!! “Exchange for the rest of us.” Apple’s own service with Push services. Hmm… worth the $99 price after all? So all messages, changes automatically updated on all linked devices, over cell networks. Web 2.0 apps: on me.com, rich email environment, as expected in rumors, like having Mac apps on the web. Mail, iCal, etc. Also file browsing–like having your Mac on the web. 20GB per account, 60-day free trial. Mobile Me replaces dot-mac.

Now about the iPhone: already a success, 80% using 10 or more features! 6 millions iPhones until they ran out 6 weeks ago. 3G iPhone! Enterprise Support. 3rd party app support, more countries–“believe me, they’re in use in more countries!” The iPhone more affordable: taking it to the next level: iPhone 3G, this is what it looks like: flush headphone jack, much better audio.

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3G speeds approaching WiFi… great battery life: standby time 300 hours: up to 5 hours talk time; 5-6 hours of high-speed browsing time; browsing 24 hours, video 7 hours.

GPS built-in! Can do tracking…

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No mention of video conferencing or a front-facing camera.

Playing the song “It’s a small world,” listing all the countries. Now in 6 countries, goal of 12 countries, stretch goal of 25 countries, total of 70 countries… and before Japan came up on the map, I accidentally quit my browser. That’s what comes from staying up until 3:45 am….

Okay, Japan is on the list. And I’ve restarted my browser.

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And the keynote is over. No front-facing video-conferencing, no various-sized iPhones… but I don’t think that anyone is disappointed. The Apple store is still offline, but should be back up soon. But at almost 4:00 am, I won’t be able to stay up long enough. Not everything that all the rumors predicted–no look at Snow Leopard yet, no tablet Macs–but certainly good enough. The only question is, will Wall Street think so?

The Apple Store Japan is back online and they have the iPhone–but I can’t find the release date, and am too tired at this point to do so.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning for a quick comment.

Categories: Mac News Tags: by

Passing the Test

June 9th, 2008 7 comments

Even among the sites that have been harsh on Hillary until now, there is a lot of graciousness and forgiving going on, even statements of expectation that people who don’t like Hillary should be doing an about face right now. All of a sudden, Hillary is the good guy again.

I have always believed in judging a person’s character not according to whether they’re doing what you want at the moment, but instead by the totality of their actions. I usually do not hold grudges; this is not a rationalization to support an emotional statement. I like what Hillary has finally decided to do, I hope we can get all the support from her that we can. But while I respect all that Hillary has done over her career, this campaign, more than anything else she has done, has revealed a great deal about her character–and it’s not very pleasant in many ways. Sure, she’s tenacious, fights for what she believes in, most of them things I believe in strongly, and she doesn’t give up easily.

However, this race has also shown that she has an ego that goes beyond even the gigantic egos normal to politics; her self-centeredness at times has been stunning. It has shown that while she fights for what she believes in, fighting for herself comes first and foremost, sometimes even to the detriment of those values. It has shown that she plays politics rough and dirty, and does not mind stooping to dishonesty. It has shown that she has no problem changing the rules, breaking the rules, twisting them to her advantage. It has shown that she is perfectly okay with base pandering, using voter-bait which is at the very best useless and meaningless. There is more, but I think you get the idea.

Much of this is reflected in her past record; the vote on Iraq is a good example, showing that she believed that political expediency trumped principles. But with a few possible exceptions during her husband’s tenure in the White House, nothing in her career has pressed her, put her to the test, pressured her enough to show exactly what she is made of more than this primary election battle has. This was the test of her lifetime, and she did not perform well.

Some might excuse her actions late in her campaign as an effort to strengthen the party–by continuing to run, she gave many Americans a reason to register and vote in the Democratic primaries, many of whom may never have registered. And had she run a clean campaign that did no damage, then I could have believed it. But her campaign continued to undercut the Obama campaign, virtually right up to the end. While increased Democratic registration may have been an effect, it was not a cause, in either sense of the word.

I can still respect her for her strengths and her accomplishments. I can still welcome her continued hard work as a senator as well as her support for Obama; she is still a bastion in the Democratic Party and can still accomplish a lot of good things. It is just that the weaknesses she has demonstrated when put to the test have shown that she is not the person I would want in the White House.

This is not about charisma, this is not about oratory skills, nor is it about experience. This is about how you act when things are at their worst. That, to me, matters much more than anything else. And quite frankly, Obama did a much better job than Clinton did when put to that test.

Categories: Election 2008 Tags: by